Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus fell sharply to N1.71tn in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from N3.42tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, as declining crude oil exports and rising imports narrowed the country’s positive trade balance.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that although Nigeria maintained a trade surplus during the quarter, the balance weakened significantly on a year-on-year basis.
The NBS said in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics for Q4 2025 that “Nigeria’s merchandise trade balance for Q4 2025 remained positive at N1.71tn,” adding that the moderation in the balance was “majorly attributable to a decline in crude oil exports.”
Total trade during the quarter stood at N36.21tn, slightly lower than the N36.60tn recorded in Q4 2024, reflecting a 1.07 per cent decline year-on-year. Exports remained higher than imports during the quarter but dropped significantly compared with the previous year.
The NBS reported that total exports fell to N18.96tn in Q4 2025, representing a 5.25 per cent decline from N20.01tn recorded in Q4 2024 and a 16.88 per cent drop compared with the previous quarter.
Exports accounted for 52.36 per cent of total trade, compared with a higher share in the corresponding period of 2024. According to the report, crude oil continued to dominate Nigeria’s export structure, contributing N9.70tn or 51.17 per cent of total exports during the quarter. However, crude oil earnings dropped sharply.
“Crude oil exports in Q4 2025 were valued at N9.7tn; the value decreased by 29.60 per cent from N13.78tn in Q4 2024,” the bureau stated.”
The sharp decline in crude earnings largely explains the weakening of Nigeria’s overall trade balance despite relatively strong non-oil and other petroleum product exports.
Non-crude oil exports stood at N9.26tn, accounting for 48.83 per cent of total exports, while non-oil exports contributed N3.15tn, representing 16.59 per cent of total exports.
Exports of other oil products, however, surged to N6.12tn, reflecting an 80.45 per cent increase year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in crude oil earnings. While exports weakened, imports continued to rise. The NBS said total imports increased to N17.25tn in Q4 2025, representing a 3.98 per cent rise from N16.59tn recorded in Q4 2024.
Imports accounted for 47.64 per cent of total trade during the quarter. Analysis of imports showed that Nigeria remained heavily dependent on foreign manufactured goods and fuel products.
According to the report, the largest import category was machinery and transport equipment, valued at N5.13tn, accounting for 29.75 per cent of total imports. This was followed by mineral fuels valued at N4.52tn, representing 26.19 per cent, and chemicals and related products worth N2.70tn, accounting for 15.68 per cent.
Regionally, the NBS stated that Nigeria imported goods mainly from Asia, valued at N8.08tn, representing 46.83 per cent of total imports. This was followed by Europe with N5.75tn or 33.31 per cent, while imports from Africa stood at N696.13bn or 4.04 per cent.
China remained Nigeria’s largest import partner, accounting for N5.39tn or 31.22 per cent of total imports, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, India, and Brazil.
On the export side, Europe continued to dominate as the largest destination for Nigerian goods. The NBS said exports to Europe were valued at N6.87tn, representing 36.24 per cent of total exports, followed by Asia with N5.11tn or 26.94 per cent.
Exports to Africa stood at N3.41tn, accounting for 18.01 per cent, while exports to the Americas were valued at N3.29tn. The report added that Nigeria’s top export partners during the quarter were the Netherlands, India, Spain, France, and Canada, which collectively accounted for 41.99 per cent of total exports.
The Netherlands alone received Nigerian exports worth N2.03tn, representing 10.72 per cent of total exports. Nigeria’s exports to African countries stood at N3.41tn, significantly higher than imports from the continent, which were valued at N696.13bn, reinforcing Nigeria’s trade surplus with the region.
Major African export destinations included South Africa, the Ivory Coast, Togo, Ghana, and Egypt, which together accounted for more than 70 per cent of exports to the continent.
Within West Africa, Nigeria exported goods worth N2.21tn, while imports from the region stood at N288.84bn. Ivory Coast and Togo were the largest buyers of Nigerian goods in the sub-region, while Ghana remained Nigeria’s largest import partner within West Africa.
Exports to ECOWAS countries were valued at N1.81tn, compared with imports of N279.83bn from the bloc.
Sectoral analysis showed mixed performance across key sectors. Total trade in agricultural goods stood at N2.76tn, with exports accounting for N1.32tn, although agricultural exports declined by 14.11 per cent year-on-year.
Agricultural imports rose significantly to N1.44tn, reflecting Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported food commodities such as wheat and soybean oil. Trade in solid minerals rose strongly, with exports reaching N116.84bn, representing a 92.48 per cent increase compared with Q4 2024.
The manufactured goods sector recorded total trade of N9.23tn, although exports from the sector remained limited at N423.43bn, highlighting Nigeria’s weak manufacturing export capacity.
Meanwhile, trade in raw materials reached N3.54tn, with imports valued at N2.35tn and exports at N1.19tn. The NBS also reported that Nigeria’s trade flows were overwhelmingly transported by sea.
Maritime transport accounted for 98.58 per cent of exports valued at N18.69tn, while 96.81 per cent of imports worth N16.70tn were also transported through sea routes.
In terms of port operations, Apapa Port handled the largest share of trade, accounting for N13.77tn or 72.63 per cent of exports, while N8.26tn of imports were processed through the port.
