Nigeria’s electricity sector is once again under intense scrutiny as the masses question the Federal Government’s ability to deliver on its promise of a stable power supply to all Nigerians within a single four-year term, especially as the presidency dumped the national grid for a N10bn solar grid, reports DARE OLAWIN
President Bola Tinubu did not mince words when he campaigned for office in 2023. He promised nothing short of a power revolution. Nigeria, he said, would generate and distribute 15 gigawatts of electricity within four years, delivering a 24/7 stable supply to homes, businesses and industries. He was emphatic that Nigerians must have electricity “by all means necessary”. He vowed to honour his promises and went as far as declaring publicly: “If I don’t keep the promise and I come back for a second term, don’t vote for me.”
Nearly three years into that pledge, the national grid continues to hover around 3,000 to 4,000 MW. And in a development that has sparked outrage and intense debate, the same administration that pledged to rescue the grid is now moving to detach the Presidential Villa from it.
Provisions in the 2025 budget earmark N10bn for solar power installation at Aso Rock. In the 2026 budget, another N7b allocation is proposed for upgrades and maintenance. Reports that the Presidential Villa plans to be disconnected from the national grid to rely entirely on solar have deepened concerns that President Tinubu, who promised to raise generation to 15 GW and stabilise supply nationwide, has effectively abandoned the grid his government pledged to fix.
For millions of Nigerians who depend solely on the fragile national grid, the symbolism is unmistakable. While ordinary citizens remain tied to a system plagued by collapses, low generation and unreliable distribution, the political elite appear to be insulating themselves from its failures.
Aside from Aso Rock Villa, the Nigeria Revenue Service has also secured the nod of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission for a 6-megawatt captive power generation, meaning that the revenue collector can no longer rely on the epileptic power grid.
Former presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, delivered one of the strongest reactions. He recalled that 32 months after being in charge, and instead of living by his powerful words, Tinubu planned to dump the national grid “that has been performing abysmally under his watch”.
According to Obi, Tinubu’s powerful words inspired hope among Nigerians who longed for light in their homes, stability for their businesses, and growth for their nation.
“Yet, while Nigerians are still grappling with that unfulfilled, categorical electoral promise – and without clear communication on the obstacles, if any, we read of a provision in the 2025 budget about the N10bn for solar power at Aso Rock and, in the 2026 budget, another humongous amount for upgrade and maintenance, and now we are being sarcastically told that the Presidential Villa has planned to be disconnected from the national grid to rely entirely on solar.
“It is a gross neglect and deeply worrisome when the seat of power abandons the national grid. One would expect government institutions to lead efforts to strengthen and expand the grid so that other establishments and, ultimately, citizens can benefit. If those in authority disconnect themselves from the system, who then will connect the ordinary Nigerian to reliable power?” Obi queried.
He argued that promoting renewable energy, as solar systems do, is commendable and necessary for the future; however, the Aso Villa’s decision to dump the grid reflected a deeper concern:” governance lacking compassion and commitment to the governed. “You cannot tell the people to fast while feasting yourself, securing yourself while Nigerians remain unsecured.”
Obi concluded that Nigerians do not expect 100 per cent fulfilment of promises, but they do expect 100 per cent effort, accompanied by measurable improvements and clear explanations when gaps exist.
“Leadership must serve the people, not isolate itself from their daily struggles,” the former Anambra governor concluded.
The controversy over Aso Rock’s solar pivot is unfolding at a time when the broader elite class has already begun its quiet migration away from the grid. Across Nigeria, more than 250 manufacturers, tertiary institutions and large commercial entities have either partially or fully exited the national grid to generate their own electricity. Together, they are estimated to produce about 6,500 MW, more than the grid currently supplies on average.
The Dangote Group alone generates about 1,500 MW for its operations. Industrial estates in Lagos and Ogun, shopping malls in Abuja and Port Harcourt, and high-income residential estates across major cities now rely heavily on captive power plants or hybrid solar-diesel systems. For these entities, the cost of self-generation, though high, is considered preferable to the unpredictability of the national grid.
The result is the emergence of a two-track electricity system. On one side are those with the capital to secure independent supply. On the other are households, small businesses and low-income communities that remain dependent on a fragile and overstretched public grid.
The economic implications are enormous. Trillions of naira that could have been channelled into strengthening generation, upgrading transmission lines or modernising distribution infrastructure are instead spent on diesel, petrol, generator servicing and solar installations. Rather than consolidating investment into a unified national system, Nigeria’s electricity market is fragmenting.
Yet, despite the steady drift towards self-generation, official data show only marginal improvements in grid capacity since Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.
Figures from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Nigerian Independent System Operator indicate that average available capacity rose from 4,387.91 MW in the second quarter of 2023 to 5,395.72 MW by the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 1,007.81 MW.
While the administration presents this as progress, generation has largely hovered around 4,000 MW, fluctuating between 3,000 MW and 5,500 MW at various periods due to gas supply constraints, pipeline vandalism, transmission bottlenecks and grid disturbances.
For a country of over 200 million people, experts argue that the incremental gain has barely altered the lived experience of citizens. Businesses still rely heavily on generators. Households continue to endure prolonged outages. The grid keeps collapsing.
A fleeting milestone was recorded on March 2, 2025, when Nigeria achieved a peak generation of 6,003 MW. The Minister’s Special Adviser on Strategic Communication, Bolaji Tunji, described it as the highest ever achieved.
“These achievements represent a significant leap forward in the sector’s capacity to meet the growing energy demands in the country, ongoing reforms in the power sector, and the avowed commitment of the administration of President Tinubu to ensure regular electricity supply in order to galvanise the nation’s economy,” he said.
However, the record proved short-lived, with generation soon slipping below 5,500 MW once again.
Ironically, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, has disclosed that over 10,000 MW of generation capacity remains stranded due to transmission and distribution constraints.
“In Nigeria today, we have over 10 GW of stranded generation capacity. We have energy being generated or installed all over the country that we are not even using. Generation will not be our immediate problem today, but stable transmission and effective distribution to the household, with full metering, will be.
“Energy that will power industries, create jobs, and even support electricity exports to our neighbouring countries through the regional power pool is all stranded,” Adelabu added.
While the Transmission Company of Nigeria says its wheeling capacity has risen to about 8,700 MW, actual generation available for transmission remains far lower. Observers say this structural imbalance underscores long-standing coordination failures within the sector.
The convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, questioned the realism of Tinubu’s 15 GW target, arguing that systemic weaknesses were not fully addressed.
“It is one thing for Tinubu’s administration to set such an ambitious target, albeit without fully understanding what the challenges are; it is another thing for them to recognise early what’s on the ground and plan to actually achieve it,” he remarked.
Adegbemle highlighted persistent debts to generation companies and gas suppliers, an unsustainable subsidy regime and high aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses.
“One of the things I did even before this administration was sworn in was to set a public agenda by writing and advising appropriately. One of them is that our present subsidy regime is not sustainable; gas suppliers are not being paid, Gencos are being owed, and there is no incentive for investments to come into the sector.
“In the downstream, DisCos are not metering fast enough, so ATC&C losses are not coming down for investments to be realised, so there are too many losses across the value chain. Unfortunately, we have a minister that has not exhibited enough dexterity to proffer solutions and set policy direction for the sector,” he alleged.
According to Adegbemle, unless the bulk consumers like manufacturers return to the grid, the sector will continue to battle the liquidity crisis.
On his part, the National Coordinator of the Electricity Consumers Protection Forum, Adeola Samuel-Ilori, said the promise to boost power supply lacked a clear implementation framework.
“You can’t build something on nothing. Therefore, it’s obvious the administration was set out to fail on electricity just as in other aspects of the economy due to lopsided and not-well-thought-out policies,” he said.
Energy law expert and University of Lagos don Dayo Ayoade identified financial insolvency as a major obstacle.
“We have laws, policies and targets, and they all have to work together. But the reality is that we don’t have everything in place to make that target a realistic one.
“The operational problem that we have currently is bankruptcy. A lot of the DisCos owe a lot of money. We have trillions in debt owed by the Federal Government itself and its other arms. If these debts have not been paid, how do you want to achieve any target?” he asked.
As the administration advances deeper into its tenure, the contradiction grows sharper. A president who pledged 15 GW and nationwide stable electricity is now presiding over a grid that averages around 4,000 MW, and whose own seat of power is preparing to disconnect from it.
For those who can afford solar panels, captive plants and diesel tanks, electricity has become a private commodity. For the poor, it remains a public struggle.
And as the elite steadily secures alternative power, millions of ordinary Nigerians remain tethered to a national grid that still fails to deliver on a promise made in bold, unforgettable words.
