Nigerians consumed about 4.93 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to fuel various economic activities in the first quarter of 2026, an analysis of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s downstream fact sheet monthly data revealed on Friday.

It revealed that this amount represents a 7.4 per cent increase from the 4.59 billion litres recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

The data, which tracks volumes trucked into the domestic market, indicates that average daily petrol consumption fell steadily from 60.2 million litres per day in January to 56.9 million litres in February and further to 47.3 million litres in March, underscoring a changing consumption pattern.

The analysis showed that consumption remained elevated in January before moderating sharply by March, suggesting that market demand is beginning to respond more strongly to pump price movements and supply-side changes.

A breakdown of the figures showed that January 2026 recorded 1.866 billion litres, while February stood at 1.593 billion litres, before dropping further to 1.466 billion litres in March.

The monthly petrol consumption figures were obtained by multiplying the average daily consumption by the number of days in each month. For January 2026, the average daily consumption of 60.2 million litres was multiplied by 31 days, giving a total of about 1.87 billion litres consumed in the month.

In February 2026, the daily average of 56.9 million litres was multiplied by 28 days, resulting in approximately 1.59 billion litres. For March 2026, the daily consumption of 47.3 million litres was multiplied by 31 days, producing a total of about 1.47 billion litres.

When combined, the three months give a total consumption of roughly 4.93 billion litres for the first quarter of 2026. Using the same method for 2025, January’s 51.5 million litres per day multiplied by 31 days gives about 1.60 billion litres.

For February 2025, 50.4 million litres per day multiplied by 28 days results in approximately 1.41 billion litres. In March 2025, 50.9 million litres per day multiplied by 31 days yields about 1.58 billion litres.

This approach ensures that monthly consumption reflects actual demand by accounting for both daily usage rates and the number of days in each month.

It also means consumption fell by 273 million litres between January and February, representing a 14.6 per cent decline.

Between February and March, volumes dropped by another 127 million litres, translating to a further 8.0 per cent decrease. Overall, from January to March, monthly petrol consumption declined by 400 million litres, representing a cumulative 21.4 per cent fall within the quarter.

On a year-on-year basis, however, the first quarter still outperformed the same period in 2025. The 2025 figures showed that Nigerians consumed 1.597 billion litres in January, 1.411 billion litres in February, and 1.578 billion litres in March, bringing the quarter’s total to 4.586 billion litres.

This means the first quarter of 2026 exceeded the 2025 figure by approximately 339 million litres, representing a 7.4 per cent increase.

A closer month-by-month comparison showed mixed performance. In January 2026, consumption rose by 269 million litres compared to January 2025, indicating a 16.8 per cent increase. In February, the 2026 figure surpassed the previous year by 182 million litres, representing a 12.9 per cent rise.

However, March 2026 consumption fell below the March 2025 figure by 112 million litres, marking a 7.1 per cent year-on-year decline. The March decline is particularly significant as it suggests a possible inflection point in fuel demand following sustained changes in market pricing. The figures reflect the growing interplay between petrol consumption and pricing in a deregulated downstream market.

Since the removal of fuel subsidy, pump prices have increasingly mirrored international crude oil movements, exchange rate volatility, and domestic refining costs. This has made consumption more sensitive to economic realities.

The data suggests that while fuel demand remained stronger in the early months of 2026, the steep decline recorded in March points to growing consumer sensitivity to pricing changes in the deregulated downstream market.

The fluctuations reflect the evolving balance between fuel supply availability and retail pricing. Recall that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price at least five times to N1,275 per litre in March.

The higher January demand was attributed to relative product availability and increased economic activity at the beginning of the year, but the progressive drop in February and March suggests that consumers began cutting back as pump prices rose.

The lower March consumption suggests that rising fuel prices may have forced transport operators, businesses, and households to reduce usage, while some consumers shifted to alternatives such as compressed natural gas or reduced discretionary travel.

The trend also reflects the broader market adjustments taking place as domestic refining capacity improves and imported petrol volumes reduce. With local supply improving, especially from the Dangote refinery, the downstream market is witnessing greater supply stability, but this has not eliminated the effect of price increases on end-user demand.

While supply sufficiency is improving, affordability remains the critical factor driving petrol consumption patterns. They said the first quarter data highlights the reality that in a deregulated market, higher supply does not necessarily translate into higher consumption if retail prices remain elevated.

The interplay between availability and pricing is therefore becoming more pronounced, with March’s decline indicating that consumers are becoming more responsive to pump price movements.

With petrol now fully subject to market forces, consumption figures in the coming months are expected to continue tracking price movements, inflationary pressures, and the pace of economic activity.

The Q1 figures suggest that while total demand remains strong on a year-on-year basis, the sharp decline in March may signal that consumers are beginning to cut back as fuel costs remain elevated.