Global food prices rose five per cent in the two months following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz after conflict erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026, according to a World Bank analysis.

The increase pushed food prices to their highest level since January 2024, with the latest data showing gains driven primarily by oils and meals, while grains recorded more modest increases.

The World Bank said the sharpest pressure came from the oils and meals segment, which surged 10 per cent over the period, reflecting higher crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending mandates in key markets including Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.

Grain prices rose three per cent over the same period, supported by what the bank described as “ample global supplies”, even as wheat and maize posted quarterly gains of nine per cent and four per cent, respectively, amid drought concerns and higher input costs.

Year-to-date through April, overall food prices are two per cent higher than a year earlier, underscoring what the World Bank described as a “contained” response relative to previous global shocks.

The bank compared the current episode with the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when food prices rose 15 per cent in a similar two-month window, around three times the current increase.

“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, pointing to “ample grain and oilseed supplies” and the fact that Northern Hemisphere farmers had largely secured fertiliser before the conflict began.

The analysis noted that the current shock is transmitting mainly through higher input costs rather than direct disruption of major food export routes.

Oils and meals have emerged as the most affected category, with soybean oil rising 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year, supported by strong renewable diesel demand and new US biofuel targets.

Palm oil and soybean prices also firmed on stronger biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese buying, though the World Bank said, “ample edible oil supplies helped limit further gains.”

Food security pressures have intensified in import-dependent regions, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where inflation accelerated following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The World Bank noted that before the conflict, food inflation in the region had been relatively contained but rose sharply in Gulf economies after supply routes were disrupted.

The report flagged heightened vulnerability in Iran, where food inflation was already running at 98 per cent in February 2026.

Beyond the region, food inflation also picked up in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, mirroring patterns seen after the 2022 Ukraine invasion.

Looking ahead, the World Bank said baseline projections point to modest increases in food commodity prices, with grains expected to rise two per cent in 2026, oils and meals four per cent, and the overall food index around 2.5 per cent.

However, it warned that risks remain “tilted firmly to the upside”, particularly if disruptions persist beyond mid-year or if energy prices remain elevated.

The UN World Food Programme estimates that up to 45 million additional people could face acute hunger in 2026 if supply disruptions continue, with more than half located in Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENAAP region.