The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), has projected that Nigeria could earn between N2.3 trillion and N30.2 trillion in additional oil revenues if the ongoing Middle East crisis continues to push global crude prices above the country’s 2026 budget benchmark.

NESG, in a policy brief released on Friday, said that the escalation of tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran since late February 2026 has triggered the most significant global energy shock since the Russia–Ukraine War, sending oil prices sharply higher.

According to the group, the surge in prices above the 2026 budget benchmark of $64.9 per barrel could provide Nigeria with a significant fiscal windfall, although the extent of the gains will depend on the duration of the conflict and domestic policy responses.

“Under plausible scenarios, Nigeria could record additional oil revenues ranging from about N2.3 trillion under a short-lived shock to as much as N30.2 trillion if the conflict becomes prolonged,” the NESG stated.

The economic think tank explained that the potential windfall would arise from the difference between the budget benchmark and higher global oil prices triggered by the geopolitical crisis. Under a short-lived crisis scenario, lasting about four to six weeks with oil prices averaging $90 per barrel, Nigeria could earn about $1.62 billion, N2.27 trillion, in extra revenue.

If the conflict spreads across the Gulf region and lasts up to three months, with oil averaging $110 per barrel, the additional earnings could rise to about $7.48 billion, N10.47 trillion.

However, in a worst-case scenario where the crisis escalates globally and oil prices average $130 per barrel for six months, Nigeria could generate as much as $21.58 billion, N30.21 trillion, in additional revenue.

“In the most severe scenario, the Federal Government’s share alone around N15.9 trillionn could cover annual debt service obligations or finance about 60 per cent of the capital budget,” the report said.