After days of intense speculation and political anxiety, Siminalayi Fubara, governor of Rivers State, allegedly received clearance from the screening committee of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to participate in the party’s governorship primaries ahead of the 2027 elections.
For a sitting governor who defected from the dominant political structure that brought him to power, the path ahead was always going to be complicated. Fubara, who should have had the choice of first refusal, will now himself compete against Hon. Kingsley Chinda, until a few days ago, Minority Leader in the House of Representatives.
Dr. Dax George-Kelly, Executive Secretary of the National Boundary Commission, a former commissioner in Rivers State and a well-known philanthropist was allegedly denied the green light by the Committee, along with billionaire businessman, Pastor Tonye Cole.
Dax was among other PDP governorship aspirants in 2023 before the political equation shifted decisively in favour of Fubara under the influence of then-Governor Nyesom Wike. The events leading to the 2023 governorship election in Rivers State remain one of the most remarkable succession stories in Nigeria’s recent political history.
Political insiders alleged at the time that Wike purchased nomination forms for multiple aspirants within the PDP. Yet when the moment came to determine the party’s candidate, the political establishment reportedly closed ranks around Fubara. Several aspirants quietly stepped aside, clearing the path for a relatively low-profile technocrat who had served as the state’s AccountantGeneral.
Fubara’s emergence demonstrated Wike’s extraordinary political influence within Rivers State — influence that had previously eluded several of the state’s most powerful political figures. Former governor Rufus Ada George had once attempted to position Engr. Sampson Ngeribara as successor, but internal party divisions frustrated that ambition.
Peter Odili supported Rotimi Amaechi, only for President Obasanjo to say that Amaechi had “K-legs” This federal resistance temporarily altered the succession plan before the courts restored Amaechi’s mandate. Amaechi himself later attempted to install Dr. Dakuku Peterside as successor in 2015, but Wike — with strong backing from the then ruling PDP establishment — prevailed. By 2023, Wike succeeded where many of his predecessors had struggled: he produced and installed his preferred successor with overwhelming political efficiency. That success, however, would soon unravel his successor.
The fall-out Neither Fubara nor Wike has publicly provided a detailed explanation for the political breakdown between them. Yet the deterioration of their relationship became visible only three months after Fubara assumed office in May 2023.
Political rumours and allegations have circulated widely in Rivers State regarding the causes of the dispute, ranging from disagreements over governance style to struggles for political control and financial influence. However, many of these claims remain unverified and should therefore, be treated cautiously. What is publicly evident is that tensions quickly escalated into a broader political crisis involving the Rivers State House of Assembly, local government structures, and party alignments.
One widely acknowledged point is that Wike strongly supported the construction of the Port Harcourt Ring Road project, which he reportedly viewed as a legacydefining infrastructure initiative capable of strengthening Fubara’s political standing ahead of a possible second-term bid. Another important dimension was the advice allegedly given to Fubara by former Ekiti State governor Ayo Fayose, a close ally of Wike, who reportedly urged the governor to avoid direct confrontation with his political benefactor.
Fubara proceeded with the Ring Road project, but the political conflict deepened nonetheless. Today, Fubara, who had a sure bet for eight years, if he had pleased the powers that be , had six months subtracted from his first four-year tenure, no thanks to a unilateral suspension handed down by Mr President.
New alliances old structure
In a dramatic political twist, Fubara later aligned himself with the APC, signaling a major realignment within Rivers’ politics. Reports soon emerged linking him politically with Hope Uzodinma, Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum and a significant power broker within the APC.
At almost the same period, lawmakers loyal to Wike within the Rivers State House of Assembly also gravitated toward the APC political structure.
Among them was Martin Amaewhule, widely regarded as one of Wike’s closest political allies. To many observers, this produced an unusual political situation: both Fubara and Wike appeared to be operating, directly or indirectly, within overlapping political spaces.
Real political question
The central political puzzle is this: even within the APC, can Fubara truly escape Wike’s influence? Despite not being formally rooted in the APC political tradition, Wike has emerged as the most influential figures within the party’s Rivers structure while simultaneously retaining substantial influence among the PDP, until the recent Supreme Court judgement annulling his Abuja Convention whittled his influence.
However, Wike’s dual influence has created a perception among analysts that Rivers’ politics is increasingly revolving around personality dominance rather than party ideology.
The implications are significant. If Fubara secures permission to contest the APC primaries, that alone does not guarantee victory. Primaries in Nigeria are often determined less by public popularity and more by control of party structures, delegates, local political machinery, and institutional loyalties.
The numbers game
Apart from Fubara, Hon. Kingsley Chinda is a strong contender for the APC governorship ticket. Unlike the 2023 PDP process — where political consensus rapidly formed around Fubara — the APC environment is unlikely to produce such easy unanimity.
That changes the equation entirely. Even if direct primaries are adopted, questions remain over which political bloc controls the grassroots structures necessary to mobilize support. Wike’s longstanding influence within River’s politics gives him significant leverage in this regard.
This is why some political observers argue that Fubara’s greatest challenge may not be the general election itself, but surviving the party primary process. Fubara’s greatest political weakness may be structural rather than electoral. Unlike Wike, Amaechi, or Odili before him, he entered office without an independently cultivated political machine of his own. His rise depended heavily on an existing structure controlled by others.
That reality has now become central to the present crisis. The governor still enjoys visible public sympathy in parts of Rivers State, particularly among citizens who view him as resisting political domination.
But Nigerian politics has repeatedly shown that public goodwill alone is rarely sufficient when party structures, legislative blocs, and elite alliances align in the opposite direction.
For now, the political battlefield remains fluid. But one fact remains that Rivers State has suffered too much in the last few months, and for stability and development, Fubara should be given a second term. Political leaders in the state should rally around him for a rapprochement.
