With the declaration last week, by Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, to contest the 2027 presidency, Southern Nigeria which hopes to complete its eight-year tenure in 2031, might lose out. But that is if former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi fails to pick the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ticket.

Before Makinde’s declaration, President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking a re-election, and Prince Adewole Adebayo, have both secured the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) respectively.

Though the newly registered Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has not yet held its convention to choose its presidential candidate for 2027, former Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, seems to be the most preferred aspirant. Besides, NDC has already zoned its ticket to the Southern Nigeria.

Political analysts expressed fears that multiple Southern candidates will spell doom for the region, if a Northern candidate emerges in the ADC, which has not made any statement where its ticket will go in 2027. Last year, a prominent member of the party faulted the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for zoning its ticket to the South “too early”.

“This means is if ADC decides to go to the North to choose its presidential candidate, it will win the election,” he had told this reporter. Though PDP seems not to be in contention for next year’s presidential election, the party was the first to zone its 2027 ticket.

The party had, after its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, on May 15 last year, zoned its presidential ticket to the South while retaining the National Chairmanship position in the North.

Three aspirants have already declared interest in the ADC presidential ticket, two of them – former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and an economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, from the North, while Amaechi is the only Southerner in the race for the party’s ticket. According to the source: “The North still decides who becomes Nigeria’s president.

It is too early for any political party to zone the presidential ticket. That’s why ADC is taking its time.” Although the party has not conducted its presidential primaries, there is every likelihood that the ADC will field a Northern candidate in 2027.

Analysis of the 2023 presidential election showed that Atiku, who was PDP candidate in that election, won nine out of the 13 North West and North East states. The only three states from the two zones that went to the APC candidate, Tinubu were Jigawa, Zamfara and Borno. Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who was candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) won Kano State.

Tinubu and Obi however, shared the North Central votes. While Tinubu won four out of the six states in the zone Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue States, Obi won Plateau and Nasarawa States, as well as Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), leaving none for Atiku.

The fear that split of Southern votes might might spell doom for the region, is due to the fact that both Tinubu and Obi secured majority of their votes in 2023, in the South, despite the fact that Atiku won three states, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Osun in the region. Tinubu and Obi got a combined 237.35 per cent votes in 2023 in the South, as against 110.86 percent Atiku got in the North.

The entrance of Makinde into the race will further depletethe votes. “The battle ground will be the North, assuming all the candidates are from the South. If not, the North will vote one of their own, if Atiku or Hayatu-Deen is ADC candidate,” Sunday Telegraph was further told.

Makinde’s candidacy is going to split Tinubu’s vote in the South West, particularly Oyo State, where he has been governor for the past seven years, and then Osun and Ondo states. Ironically, President Tinubu won more votes in North West in 2023, a whopping over 2.7 million (about 39.64 per cent), than his South West, where he scored some 2.3 million votes (about 53.59 per cent).

His superlative performance in North West might be attributed to the influence of late President Muhammadu Buhari, and some governors of the region. A lot has changed since then. The president has fallen out with some political leaders from the zone, notably former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, who is currently in detention at the DSS facility.

National Vice Chairman (North East) of ADC, Babachir Lawal, said President Tinubu’s policies have alienated the North, describing Tinubu’s appointments of some Northerners as “cosmetic”. The former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), further stated that Tinubu disappointed “the Muslims that voted for him, alienated them, embarrassed them, and underdeveloped them.”