Multiplicity of presidential candidates in the 2027 presidential election narrows down the chances of President Bola Tinubu or any other southern candidate against Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, a lone Northern candidate, writes ONYEKACHI EZE.

The 2027 presidential election seems to be a replay of that of 2023. Except former Kano State governor, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who perhaps, may be a running mate, the three front runners, President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and former Anambra State governor, Mr. Perter Obi, have picked the ticket of their respective political parties to contest next year’s presidential election.

While Tinubu will still run on the All Progressive Congress (APC) platform, Atiku and Obi are contesting on different political platforms other than the ones they used in 2023.

Atiku who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic party (PDP) in 2023, is now the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Obi who ran on Labour Party platform in that same election, has picked the ticket of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), and he might choose Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), as his running mate.

Other presidential candidates also have emerged in other political parties. Yesterday, May 29, PDP adopted former President Goodluck Jonathan as its presidential candidate in 2027. Jonathan is trying to make a come back about 12 years after he vacated the office, the first incumbent president to lose election in Nigerian history.

Last week, he won a major victory when an Abuja Federal High Court cleared him to contest the 2027 presidential election. The Court of Appeal had earlier ruled that Jonathan is eligible to contest the presidency despite being sworn in twice as president before. Also in the race for the presidency in 2027 is Prince Adewole Adebayo who was the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 2023.

The party has given him ticket again to fly its flag. Former Cross River State governor, Donald Duck, who failed to pick the SDP ticket in 2019, now have the opportunity to run on the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) platform. Oyo State governor, Oluseyi Makinde has as well indicated interest to run on the platform of the Allied People’s Movement (APM).

Of course, there is Omoyele Sowore who always run on African Action Congress (AAC) platform. Apart from Atiku, who is the presidential candidate of the ADC, all the other presidential candidates are from the southern part of the country. Perhaps, this is in obedience to the zoning principle.

The last Nigerian president before Tinubu, Muhammadu Buhari, was from the North, and he was in office for eight years. Therefore for sake of equity and justice, the presidency should remain in the South for eight years before it returns to the North. Adamawa State governor, Ahmed Umaru Fintiri supports that the presidency should remain in the South till 2031.

Said Governor Fintiri who is Atiku’s governor, “(2027) is the South’s turn; they should complete their eight years if we are really serious about this country and leadership. “A northerner has no business at the moment to vie for the office of the president.” But it is not a crime for Atiku or any Northerner to contest the 2027 presidency.

In 2023, late President Buhari, a Northerner, contested against Obasanjo, a Southerner who was seeking a reelection to complete the region’s turn, alongside other southern candidates. Atiku also contested in 2023 presidential election after Buhari, a Northerner was about to complete the region’s tenure.

The number of Southerners in the race for 2027 against one Northerner is however a source of worry. Former governor of Ogun State, Segun Osoba, described it as a political gang-up against President Tinubu, which he alleged is a plot aimed at dividing votes and reduce President Tinubu’s chances at the polls.

“The enemies are many,” he said, adding, “Many people are saying we have no opponents, but that is a misleading narrative. The enemies are many “As we approach the next election, there is a strong gang-up against us. They are plotting to field several candidates from our region in the South.

Peter Obi has emerged, Goodluck Jonathan is quietly waiting in the background, and Seyi Makinde has been grandstanding. All these appear to be attempts to divide votes from the South.” Osoba and every other southerner have every reason to be worried.

Except something happens, the 2027 presidential election is going to be a tough mountain for President Tinubu or any other southern candidate to climb. Analysis of the 2023 presidential election showed that Atiku who was PDP candidate in that election, won nine out of the 13 North West and North East states.

The only three states from the two zones that went to the APC candidate, Tinubu were Jigawa, Zamfara and Borno. Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who was candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) won Kano State.

Tinubu and Obi however, shared the North Central votes. While Tinubu won four out of the six states in the zone Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue States, Obi won Plateau and Nasarawa States, as well as Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), leaving none for Atiku.

The fear that split of Southern votes might spell doom for the region, is due to the fact that both Tinubu and Obi secured majority of their votes in 2023, in the South, despite the fact that Atiku won three states Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Osun in the region.

Tinubu and Obi got a combined 237.35 percent votes in 2023 in the South, as against 110.86 percent Atiku got in the North. Obi won all the five South East states, as well as Lagos, Delta, Edo and Cross River States. This is nine out of 17 states in the region while Tinubu won only five. The entrance of Makinde and Jonathan into the race will further deplete the votes.

Makinde’s candidacy is going to split Tinubu’s vote in the South West, particularly Oyo State where he has been governor for the past seven years, as well as Osun and Ondo States, while Jonathan will reduce Obi’s number of states in the South-South. The battle ground will be the North.

Ironically, President Tinubu won more votes in North West in 2023, a whopping over 2.7 million (about 39.64 percent), than his South West, where he scored some 2.3 million votes (about 53.59 percent).

His superlative performance in North West might be attributed to the influence of late President Muhammadu Buhari, and some governors of the region.

The North employs campaign of sentiment in 2027, the tide might sway against the South. Nigeria has adopted rotational presidency since the return of democracy in 1999. Between 1999 to 2023, the South, which started with Olusegun Obasanjo, held office for 14 years, as against the North’s eleven years.

By the time Tinubu completes his first tenure in May 29 next year, the South would extend its period to 17 years. Yar’Adua’s three years in office shortened the North’s presidency.

The sentiment in the North is that if Tinubu or any other southerner wins the 2027 presidency and completes the term, “the balance continues to shift toward the South, reigniting debates over whether Northern zones are being sidelined.”