• Lagos Assembly members battle for APC ticket

ANAYO EZUGWU examines the prospects of some incumbent members of the Lagos State House of Assembly getting tickets to contest the 2027 election as the All Progressives Congress (APC) conducts state Assembly primary elections across the state today

As the All Progressives Congress (APC) conducts state Assembly primary elections today for aspirants seeking to fly the party’s flag in the 2027 elections, there are indications of a real contest for members of the Lagos State House of Assembly for the first time in the current dispensation.

While some seats in the Assembly are expected to be straight rides for their occupants, most of the serving lawmaker will face a fierce battle to retain the confidence of their constituents.

Agege 1

The Speaker of the House, Mudashiru Obasa, will not present himself for context despite still holding sway in his Agege 1 constituency, as he has been elected candidate of the party for the House of Representatives. Before now, there had been permutations on the speaker’s next political, with a section touting that Obasa will replace Senator Idiat Adebule as Lagos West representative at the Senate but the powers that be later went against that as the former deputy governor preferring to continue.

And being the only female senator among the three senators from the state, the odds for her overwhelmingly tops those against her. However, with Obasa securing the House of Representatives ticket, the speaker has given the nod to Ganiyu Egunjobi to replace him at the state House of Assembly.

Egunjobi in a recent statement after the APC caucus stakeholders’ meeting, which the speaker attended, said the party unanimously adopted him as its candidate for the Agege state constituency 1 seat. At the same meeting, the speaker reportedly called on party members to support two allies seeking seats in the Lagos State House of Assembly. He backed Egunjobi, who is the immediate past chairman of Agege Local Government Council, for Agege Constituency 1 and for Agege Constituency II seat, he reportedly endorsed Azeez Ninolowo.

Apapa 1

For Apapa Constituency 1, the Deputy Speaker, Hon. Mojisola Meranda, may have a complex route to the Assembly. Seeking for her fourth term, Meranda, who held sway as speaker for 49 days may not have any formidable opposition despite the presence of Dr. Oladunjoye Egbayelo, who is secretly endorsing one of the four female lawmakers in the house, Meranda.

Despite her endorsement by some stakeholders, there is a growing chorus of voices in the APC calling for change, indicating that a fourth term is not guaranteed and that she faces scrutiny within her constituency

. Supporters who are rooting for her emergence once again are citing her experience, influence, and effectiveness in bringing development to the constituency as reasons for her endorsement.

Also, her supporters argue that her tenure has benefited the community, making her a “ranking officer” worth returning. While Meranda has strong local backing, she faces headwinds from internal party rivalries and rising calls for change, making her 2027 bid a contested race.

Oshodi/Isolo 1

In Oshodi/Isolo 1, while the chairman of the House Committee on Strategy, Information and Security, Stephen Ogundipe, is supported and seems to enjoy the backing of top stakeholders, he will face challenge from two contenders — Mayowa Alakija and the Senior Special Assistant to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on Sports, Banji Atewogboye (Skibanj), both boasting of their own grassroots appeal and government support, especially Alakija. Alakija appears to enjoy strong backing from both youth groups and party leaders in the constituency.

This support was evident at a recent consultative meeting he convened at the new APC secretariat in Oshodi, attended by key stakeholders from the Mandate and Justice blocs, ward leaders, council officials, artisans and representatives of non-indigene communities. However, analysts still believe it would be a tight contest, with Ogundipe expected to find his way out.

Surulere 1

In Surulere 1, Nollywood star, Desmond Elliot, who is bidding for a record fourth time, may likely have a fierce contest for the ticket from President Bola Tinubu’s Personal Assistant on Constituency Affairs, Khadijat Omotayo; Governor Sanwo-Olu’s Special Assistant on Housing, Barakat Odunuga-Bakare and Oladipo Jaji — all considered strong contenders. However, following a reported little or no support from the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila and the need to perhaps shore up the number of women lawmakers in the state, there is a strong voice for the actor to step down.

However, recent events in Surulere have shown that Elliot still retains the support of the people at the grassroots as they recently embarked on solidarity walk for him, reeling out his achievements and insisting that his experience would be handy in the next dispensation. Despite the odds against him, what played out during the solidarity match shows that Elliot is still a candidate to beat in the primary election.

Ajeromi Ifelodun 1

In Ajeromi Ifelodun 1, the contest may be fierce as the incumbent and two-term lawmaker, Lukmon Olumoh, squares up against a grassroots mobiliser and former council chairman, Fatai Ajidagba (Ajifat), who enjoys the backing of top political figures in the area. Expanding his political outreach may be critical to Olumoh’s chances but it is believed his experience may see him through.

Epe 1

Epe Constituency 1 is going to be a hot bed as long term lawmaker, Abiodun Tobun, faces a very formidable challenge from Segun Agbaje, former Epe Local Government chairman. Agbaje, who is known for his grassroots appeal and advocacy for community welfare and road safety, has built a reputation as a people-oriented politician.

His emergence has resonated with a section of constituents calling for generational change and fresh ideas. Local sentiments suggest growing fatigue with long-term representation, as some constituents openly canvass for “new innovation” and a departure from what they describe as “inactive leadership.”

Epe 2

In Epe Constituency II, a similar contest is brewing as the incumbent, Sylvester Oluwadahunsi, popularly known as Sketel, prepares to face Prince Adeyemi Ogunlari known as “Gentle Giant,” in what observers describe as a battle of influence and local networks.

Badagry 1

In Badagry Constituency 1, Solomon Bonu is facing one of the greatest opponents in the political arena of his Badagry 1 Constituency. He is contending with the immediate chairman of one of the local government, who is a serious grassroots person. According to scoops, the former council chairman, who won the hearts of the people when he held sway is poised to give the incumbent lawmaker a run for his money in his bid for a second term in the House.

Agege 2

It may not be a straight sail for Hon. Jubreel Abdulkareem, the incumbent for Agege Constituency II, as he faces a tough challenge from Azeez Yusuf, popularly known as Nino and who backed by youths in the area. Nino has grassroots appeal and his supporters are clamouring for a generational shift in the constituency, a development that will make Abdulkareem to work extra hard to get the ticket.

Ibeju-Lekki 2

In Ibeju-Lekki Constituency II, Comrade Abiodun Yusuf is positioning himself against the incumbent, Oladele Ajayi, whose tenure has focused on infrastructure and empowerment projects.

Amuwo Odofin 1

As a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Hon. Foluke Oshafile may find it difficult but not impossible in her re-election bid. Also being the only opposition in the House may make her matter a bit dicey but one thing that may work in her favour is her strong appeal at the grassroots as she is massively followed. Also given that she is one of the four women in the House, analysts are tipping her to return to the Assembly.

Although not confirmed, our correspondent gathered that there is a move to ensure that the ruling party gets the constituency. To what extent she would be able to surmount this challenge remains to be seen but it is believed that Amuwo Odofin, being a core ADC constituency, her chances of retaining her seat appear brighter.

Amuwo Odofin 2

For Amuwo Odofin 2, third term-chasing Hon. Rauf Sulaiman is still the man to beat. Recall that in 2023, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the Labour Party candidate winner, but Sulaiman went to the tribunal and after some months he was declared winner on technical grounds. He has always found it tough to secure the party’s ticket but at the end he always gets it.

Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a formidable opponent chasing his place at the House. While there is opposition against his re-election, analysts consider those eyeing his position not strong enough to depose him.

Kosofe 1

For Kosofe 1, Hon. Sanni Okanlawon is being challenged keenly although our correspondent could not get the full identity of his challenger. Aside his staunch support for the Deputy Speaker, Meranda, one major issue that might count for him is his engagement with his constituents and drive for compensation for those whose property were affected during demolition of the Oworonshoki area of his constituency.

However, Okalanwon has an axe to grind with some leaders of the APC in his area. His constituency may not want a repeat of what happened with late Bayo Oshinowo, who stayed put in the seat for a long time. If he survives the many political onslaughts against him, he will make it to the 11th Assembly for a third term.

Kosofe 2

For Kosofe 2, Saheed Obafemi is firm. Although he facilitated projects, roads and schools, he has issues with some party leaders in his constituency even as Lagos APC youth leader, Dr. Muritala Seriki, has indicated interest in occupying his seat.

Saheed recently boasted that he is very confident of beating his opponents at the primaries. If that happens, he may return for a second term, but he must effectively reach out to convince the party on why he should return.

Lagos Island 1

In Lagos Island 1, Lara Olumegbon, being a first timer, is projected to face stiff competition. Though a princess, her opponent is a prince. It is against this backdrop that many have described the battle for the ticket as a royal battle but being the incumbent, it is believed that Olumegbon should be able to have her way.

Alimosho 1

It is believed that Hon. Jimoh Orelope Olatunji in Alimosho 1 is riding on the popularity of his sister – Princess Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire – Senior Special Assistant to the President on Sustainable Development Goals and former deputy governor of the state to influence his election as she did in 2023.

Though many say the lawmaker’s impact has been felt much, it could be understood given that he is a first timer and should be allowed to go back and continue from where he stopped. While it remains to be seen how it will pan out, analysts believe that he has what it takes to ensure effective representation.

Alimosho 2

Second term lawmaker for Alimosho 2, Joseph Kehinde Olajide, is reportedly being highly supported by his constituents although there is a strong opposition that he will contend with. However, his regular engagement and the people following him are seen as a plus for him as he bids for a third term.

Badagry 2

The Deputy Chief Whip of the House of Assembly, who also represents Badagry 2, Hon. Setonji Samuel, is a third term lawmaker. Though it is reported that some leaders do not want him back for a 4th term, his chances of returning are high.

Mushin 1

For Akinsanya Ayinde in Mushin 1, one thing going for him is his deft political calculations and his intentionality to things. Though he has grassroots opponents, Akinsanya is known to easily find his way. His chances are high and he may return for a record third term.

Mushin 2

While the same may not be entirely said of Kazeem Olayinka Muyideen in Mushin 2, the lawmaker is tipped to make a return to the House. He has continually engaged in consultations and the outcome, observers note, is commendable.

Lagos Island 2

For Hon. Afinni Suleiman of Lagos Island 2, he is seen to not have serious opposition and analysts have projected his relative easy return to the Assembly as it is reported that a lot of leaders in his constituency are behind him.

Lagos Mainland 1

Similarly, Owolabi Ajani of Lagos Mainland 1 may not have difficulty in making a return as he is backed by the leaders, especially his father who is reported to be the apex leader in his constituency.

Lagos Mainland 2

For Shabi Rasheed Adekola of Lagos Mainland 2, he is likely going to nick the ticket of the party barring any sudden development. He has no serious opposition. While he was a local government chairman, he was massively identified with as he prioritised projects and other welfare for the people, a development, analyst believe, would work for him.

Additionally, while some constituencies are witnessing turbulence, others as some are already highlighted, have relative peace, paving the way for the return of their representatives.

For example, lawmakers in Eti-Osa constituencies I and 2 — Gbolahan Yishawu and Noheem Adams — appear to be enjoying relative calm, with no major challengers identified so far. Similarly, Ladi Ajomale in Oshodi/Isolo Constituency II and Orekoya in Somolu Constituency I are currently perceived to have smoother paths toward re-election.

Meanwhile, unfolding scenarios in Lagos, commentators have posited, have underscored the fact that the state is gradually transiting to a complete situation where the power of incumbency may not guarantee return to political positions as emphasis has been on achievements while in office, grassroots connection and internal party acceptance as recipes for re-election as against incumbency factors which previously defined acceptance.

However, even after the primaries, internal party rivalry may rear its heads, especially in key battlegrounds where the ruling party will be expected to up its ante in order to remain the party to beat. As the party elects new faces to fly its flag, Lagosians will be eager to see how post-Obasa era in the House of Assembly would be.