The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upward to 4.4 per cent, from an earlier estimate of 4.2 percent, signalling increased confidence in the country’s medium-term economic outlook. The projection aligns with the report released last week by the World Bank, which also put the growth forecast at 4.4 per cent.
The upgraded projection was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook and formally unveiled at the report’s launch on Monday.
The Fund attributed the revision to growing optimism that ongoing economic reforms, improved fiscal coordination and strengthening macroeconomic stability are beginning to gain traction. Compared with the IMF’s October 2025 assessment, the latest outlook represents a modest but meaningful improvement.
The Fund made no significant changes to its near-term projections, suggesting that the upgrade is driven largely by expectations of stronger performance beyond the immediate horizon rather than shortterm developments.
The IMF’s update also highlights a broader regional recovery. Economic growth in SubSaharan Africa is now forecast at 4.1 per cent in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 4.0 per cent, and 4.4 per cent in 2026, compared with an earlier projection of 4.3 per cent. South Africa’s outlook was similarly revised upward, with growth now expected at 1.3 per cent in 2025 and 1.4 per cent in 2026.
Overall, the IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook is consistent with a gradual strengthening across the region rather than an isolated reassessment, stressing that sustained reform momentum and policy consistency will be critical to translating improved forecasts into durable economic gains.
The IMF’s revised projection aligns with the latest outlook from the World Bank, which last week forecast 4.4 per cent growth for Nigeria’s economy in 2026. In its January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said Nigeria’s growth is expected to strengthen further, driven by continued expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agriculture and the cumulative impact of ongoing economic reforms.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth improved to an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, reflecting better macroeconomic conditions and stronger performance in key non-oil sectors.
Services particularly finance, information and communication technology (ICT), and trade remained the main engine of growth, while agriculture recorded a modest recovery following weather-related disruptions in previous years.
