STEPHEN OLUFEMI ONI reports on the political maneuverings in Kwara State ahead of the 2027 General Election, particularly agitations for and against the senatorial district that should produce a successor to Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq

Ahead of the 2027 general election in Nigeria, it is interesting to note that political stakeholders in Kwara State have commenced in earnest the agitation for and against the senatorial district that should produce the next governor after the expiration of the two-term tenure of the incumbent governor, Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.

While some political analysts are averse to this early scheming, saying it is diversionary and a distraction, the politicians, however, hold the view that it is never too early, since no one would want to be caught unawares in the scheme of political development and maneuvering, more so that it is a common knowledge that both the Kwara South and Kwara Central Senatorial Districts had at various times occupied the coveted governorship seat in the last 25 years.

To this end, notable politicians across political parties in the Kwara North Senatorial District have formed a common front, and are not leaving things to chances, towards ensuring that their zone produces the next governor of the State in 2027.

Kwara North

To actualise the Kwara North district’s desire of producing the governor of the State in 2027, politicians from the major political parties in the state, including the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), attended a stakeholders meeting convened by an APC stalwart, Senator Mohammed Ahmed.

According to the communique issued at the end of the meeting and signed by Senator Mohammed Ahmed, the stakeholders reiterated their stand on the need for Kwara North Senatorial District to be given the opportunity of producing the next governor in the State, saying that, “Kwara North for governor come 2027 is highly desirable”.

The meeting acknowledged and thanked the royal fathers and youth groups in the district, for consistently championing the course of power shift to Kwara North in 2027, while recommending the need for all of them, individually and collectively, to continue to reach out to the people of Kwara Central and Kwara South Senatorial Districts for strategic consultations and persuasions, as power is never served ‘a la carte’.

At the epoch meeting, the issue of marginalisation and under development came to the fore, and it was resolved that a high powered committee be set up to address the nagging issues holistically and work out a frame work for the realisation of their objectives in this regard.

This, according to the stakeholders at the meeting, would be in the overall interest of their area and enhance the spirit of brotherhood, togetherness, equity, fairness and justice that have eluded the Kwara North Senatorial District since the Fourth Republic.

It would be recalled that in 2019, the APC in Kwara State had successfully wrest political power from the then ruling PDP. Intriguingly, the tsunami that swept the PDP away during the 2019 general elections repeated itself in the 2023 general election.

However, some political analysts are of the opinion that the landslide victories recorded by Kwara APC in the 2019 and 2023 general elections were made possible by the overwhelming votes garnered by the party from the Kwara Central Senatorial District, without which the first ever political revolution in the annals of the State could not have been possible.

Speaking with our correspondent on the political development, the coordinator of a political group in the State, Kwara Coalitions For Good Governance (KCGG), Mallam Isiaka Mohammed, opined that the Kwara Central Senatorial District is indeed central to the victory of the ruling APC, calling on leaders of the ruling party to be careful in taking steps to shift the political power base from Kwara Central in 2027.

“Let it be noted with caution that as central as Kwara Central Senatorial District is to the victory of the ruling APC, it cannot be left open for the opposition elements who are scheming to become the next governor of the State.

“Like a cat waiting to ambush a rat to devour it, the PDP people are waiting in the wings to hijack power in the event that APC fails to choose its governorship flag bearer from the Kwara Central zone,” Mohammed admonished.

The group, which said that the APC in Kwara State is not under any obligation to act any unscripted and undocumented power shift agenda on the altar of moral compass, added that, “to do that on moral concerns and consideration will be an attempt to dig the grave of the party in the 2027 election”.

The political group also said that leaders of the APC in the State should draw lessons from well established electoral winning strategies by some State, which it said picked their gubernatorial candidates from the majority and not from the minority zones.

He added: “Instances abound in Oyo State where politicians capitalise on the population of Ibadan to win elections. The same scenario often plays out in the case of Benue state that will never zone gubernatorial ticket to any other areas other than Tiv as the dominant factor for winning elections.

Kwara Central has a huge history behind it going forward by the trajectory of leveraging the bulk votes from five local government areas… to win elections as it had done in the past

“References can also be made to Kebbi State where Kebbi North is always favoured to produce governors while the Southern Kaduna is always disfavoured for being in the minority in Kaduna State; and zoning ticket there is virtually unthinkable

“Again, Kwara APC should be reminded that the ultimate goal of any political party is to win elections without being dogmatic and enslaved to the principles of equity, fairness and justice in the struggles to acquire power.

“Even the highly revered royal father of Ilorin, His Royal Highness, Dr. Ibrahim Sulu-Gambari, in his recent address to a group of stakeholders in the State at his palace, alluded to the centrality of Kwara Central to once again produce the next occupant of the Government House, otherwise called Ahmadu Bello House, the seat of power in the State of Harmony.

“The position of the Emir of Ilorin was also amplified at the walimat Quran ceremony held at Agbaji in Ilorin by the Makama of Ilorin Emirate, Alhaji Ibrahim Oniye, who said Ilorin for number one in the 2027 governorship election is non-negotiable and there is no going back. “The message here by Makama buttresses the fact that Ilorin will not play a second fiddle and that the number one position for Ilorin in the seat of power is sacrosanct.”

Kwara Cemtral

However, as the 2027 general election is fast approaching, the counsel by some stakeholders, leaders of the party and well-meaning indigenes of the State to Governor AbdulRazaq is that APC gubernatorial ticket should be expediently retained in the Kwara Central Senatorial District.

A member of the party, Hassan Aliyu of Gaa Akanbi ward, Ilorin shares same view, saying: “This is because Kwara Central parades huge numerical strength that could deliver almost 50 per cent of the cumulative votes in the State. Thus, making the Senatorial District the indisputable determinant of the direction where the pendulum of victory shall swing in 2027.

“APC leadership under the incumbent Kwara State governor should know that those clamouring for power shift to Kwara North are doing so by figments of their imagination and are being paid to drum support for non-existing agreement at the detriment of the party’s chances of winning the 2027 gubernatorial election.

“To zone the ticket to less populated and politically fragmented Kwara North zone will be tantamount to embarking on a journey of self-inflicted pitfalls and suicidal mission for the party. God forbid!,” Aliyu posited.

Some political observers in the state also said that victory of the ruling party in the 2027 governorship election is a done deal provided a strong and formidable flag bearer emerges from the Kwara Central district, saying that electoral victory is hinged on game of numbers.

“No doubt, Kwara Central parades qualified governorship hopefuls; the likes of Yahaya Seriki, the former Minister of National Planning and the Director General National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, Professor Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman and Senator Saliu Mustapha, who could be trusted with power to build on the monumental achievements of Governor Abdulrazaq.

“Undoubtedly, Kwara Central has a huge history behind it going forward by the trajectory of leveraging the bulk votes from five local government areas, comprising Ilorin West, Ilorin South, Ilorin East and Asa as well as parts of Moro to win elections as it had done in the past.

“It will, therefore, amount to swimming against the tide of history if APC fails to accept the clarion calls by the esteemed stakeholders of the party to choose rightly and wisely from among potential contenders for the governorship race in the Kwara Central District.

“If the political calculus of the leadership of the opposition party is to choose the PDP standard bearer from Kwara Central it will reinforce the fact that they have learnt from the bitter lesson of fielding a candidate from Kwara North in 2023 gubernatorial election against the populated Kwara Central candidate and the sitting governor who sought re-election and got it courtesy of massive voting powers of the Kwara Central,” they said.

They hold the view that leader of APC must be circumspect and strategic to counter the PDP’s plot and ploy by neutralising their mindsets game of fielding a candidate from Kwara Central and not to pick the party’s governorship candidate from Kwara North in the coming election.

“Kwara APC is not under any obligation whatsoever to act the unscripted and undocumented power shift agenda on the altar of moral compass. To do that on moral concerns and consideration will be an attempt to dig the grave of the party in the 2027 election.

“Commendably too, the party under Governor AbdulRazaq, the incumbent chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, has performed well in terms of legacy projects than to allow the state to be inherited by opposition party in the name of experimenting unpopular and ill-timed rotational power shift to the north which will spell doom in the coming 2027 governorship election. A stitch in time as people say, saves nine,” they cautioned.