• Zoning rekindles North/South divide
• politics as parties seek winning formulas

FELIX NWANERI reports on how the zoning debate is shaping the build-up to the 2027 presidential election

There is no doubt that arguments for and against rotation of Nigeria’s presidency between the North and South have always dominated debates ahead of every election cycle since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civil rule. This, perhaps, explains why ethnic affiliations and religious leaning rather than capacity have been the unofficial criteria for selecting candidates for presidential elections by the various political parties.

Although not constitutional, the idea behind the zoning principle or rotational presidency is that in a multi-plural, diverse country like Nigeria, with over 250 ethnic groups, it is important that every group is given a sense of belonging in order to promote national unity and to prevent dominance by the major ethnic groups.

It is against this backdrop that zoning has become one of the most contentious issues in Nigeria. However, the politics around it, is heating up the polity ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with implications for the stability of the country. There is no doubt that there is tension is over the ethnic card being played by some political parties and their chieftains, a `development driving a wedge between the country’s geopolitical divides – North and South.

The present democratic dispensation (Fourth Republic) is 27 years and would be 28 by 2027, when the next general election would hold, but so far, the North has occupied the presidency for 11 years – Muhammadu Buhari (eight years, 2015-2023) and Umaru Yar’Adua (three years, 2007-2010). The South, on its part, has been in power for 16 years through Olusegun Obasanjo (eight years, 1999-2007), Goodluck Jonathan (five years, 2010- 2015) and Bola Tinubu (three years).

However, the region would have spent 17 years by the time the incumbent serves out his first term in 2027. Though the South presently has a four-year advantage over the North, which would be six years by 2027, most Nigerians believe that power should remain in Southern Nigeria given that the North enjoyed eight straight years under Buhari’s presidency. Those who hold this view maintain that sustenance of rotational presidency is in the interest of Nigeria’s unity.

However, some northern political leaders are clamouring for power to return to their region in 2027 on the basis of what they termed “need for the North to be at par with the South.” Others are even calling for abandonment of the zoning arrangement. It is against these backdrops that many are of the view that whereas the zoning arrangement has helped to ensure a sense of balance and inclusion, to jettison it for purposes of expediency would be counterproductive.

This, perhaps, explains why the leading parties have turned to zoning of their respective presidential tickets to the South as a winning strategy. They include the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP).

APC retains zoning arrangement in favour of South

Whereas the leadership of the ruling party said at a time that it will give members of the party the opportunity to express themselves at the presidential primary, it was clear that the ticket will remain in the South, where President Bola Tinubu hails from.

It was also clear that the principle of right of first refusal will decide the contest for the ticket in favour of the President although a member of the party – Stanley Osifo – equally obtained the N100 million APC presidential Nomination and Expression of Interest forms to challenge Tinubu at the primary election. However, what played out at the APC presidential primary that held at the weekend was a formal ratification of President Tinubu as the candidate of his party.

The President had even before the commencement of activities for the APC primaries received endorsements for his second term bid from the various organs, caucuses and stakeholders of the party. This means that the APC has kept faith with its zoning arrangement as the presidential ticket remains in the South for the second consecutive time as the North did through Buhari in 2015 and 2019.

PDP returns to zoning despite division

The two factions of the PDP led by Tanimu Turaki and Abdulrahman Mohammed that lay claim to the PDP’s national leadership have equally zoned the former ruling party’s presidential ticket to the South in line with the zoning arrangement that speaks to the fact that region should be allowed to complete an eight-year term before power returns to the North.

The Turaki faction backed by Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State had last week announced that it has cleared former President Goodluck Jonathan to contest its presidential primary. The Mohammed faction backed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, on its part, has cleared Sandy Onor – a sole presidential aspirant.

While Jonathan is yet to officially declare for the 2027 presidency, a former governor of Niger State, Babangida Aliyu, who is a member of the Turaki-led PDP Presidential and Gubernatorial Screening Committee, said the former president was granted a waiver from the screening process in recognition of his previous service as deputy governor, governor, vice president and president.

Nigerians, particularly the youth are determined to see somebody who represents their aspiration emerge as president in 2027

His words: “The party had already given a presidential aspirant a waiver from screening. Like I said in the beginning, he was deputy governor, became governor, became vice president, became president, so we didn’t see anything that needed screening. Therefore, the party had given him a waiver.

In other words, he has been cleared as a candidate of the PDP for the presidential election, and that is former President Jonathan.” Interestingly, Governor Makinde, also a southerner and major backer of the Turaki faction, recently declared the he will contest the presidential election on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), while Wike has repeatedly said that he will work for President Tinubu of the APC.

As it stands, Jonathan and Onor, who represented Cross River Central at the Senate between 2019 and 2023, hail from South-South states of Bayelsa and Cross River, respectively hence the presidential ticket of the PDP for any of them would be in line with the zoning arrangement. This development is a departure from the 2023 experience, when the ticket was thrown open and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, emerged as presidential candidate but the party witnessed polarization that cost it the main election.

LP forecloses northern candidate but…

Also joining the zoning fray, the Labour Party said that it will not accept any presidential candidate from the northern part of the country, insisting that the position has been zoned to the South. National Chairman of the party, Nenadi Usman, who disclosed this in March, said: “We will certainly not field any aspirant from northern Nigeria. We have zoned the position to Southern Nigeria. So, if any northerner comes now to contest, we certainly will not accept that.”

Recall that Peter Obi, LP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 elections left the party on December 31, 2025, but as it stands, the party said it has screened two aspirants seeking its presidential ticket for the 2027 general election. They are Dr. Peter Agada and Samuel Nwigwe. While Nwigwe is from Ebonyi State in the South, Agada (a former Director of Finance of the Obidient Movement) hails from Benue State in the North. However, he is of the view that zoning is neither recognised in the Nigerian Constitution nor in the constitution of the party.

According him zoning remains a “gentleman’s agreement,” and it is left for political parties to decide where their presidential candidates would emerge from. As it stands, the party is likely to clear both aspirants for its presidential primary but it would be violating its zoning arrangement if Agada, who hails from the North, clinches the ticket.

NDC zones ticket to the South for one term

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), which also zoned its presidential ticket to the South, however restricted it to a single four-year term that power is expected to remain in the region. The party also resolved that after the fouryear single term, the presidential ticket would be zoned to the North.

The resolution of the party was taken at its maiden National Convention, following adoption of a motion moved by the member representing Ogbaru Federal Constituency of Anambra State in the House of Representatives, Hon. Victor Ogene Ogene, who explained that the zoning arrangement reflects the party’s commitment to justice, inclusiveness and national stability, said:

“In recognition of our country’s diversity and the need for balance, the party has resolved that the presidency shall rotate to the South in 2027 for a single term and subsequently return to the North in 2031.” He added that the decision was more than a political arrangement, describing it as “a moral statement on national cohesion” intended to reduce tensions surrounding the nation’s long-running power rotation debate.

Under the arrangement, the coast is clear for a former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, who has already been screened and other southern aspirants interested in flying the flag of the newly registered party led by a former governor of Bayelsa State, Seriake Dickson, in the 2027 presidential election. Obi has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to zoning with a declaration to serve a single term if elected as president in 2027 in line with the rotational presidency arrangement between the North and South.

His words: “If you take the arrangement which is, understandably, what you call an unwritten agreement that power would go South and North, and if that arrangement is to be followed strictly, you would see that anybody, not just me, who happens to come from the South as president in 2027, must be ready to leave on May 28 not 29, 2031.”

Also, according to permutations, a former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is expected to be Obi’s running mate. Obi, who defected from the Labour Party (LP) to the ADC in December, suddenly left for the NDC some weeks back, having realised that the ADC ticket may elude him at the primary. Obi’s main supporters under the aegis of the Obidient Movement, had during his brief stint with the ADC, insisted that they will not accept anything less than the presidential ticket.

ADC shuns zoning, throws ticket open

For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition of key opposition leaders, the party decided to throw its presidential ticket open despite pressure on its leadership in line with the rotational presidency arrangement.

Many had expected that the ADC will give the ruling APC a run for its money in the presidential election given the profile of the frontrunners for its presidential ticket – Atiku, Obi and a former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi.

However, the optimism began to wane when Obi left the ADC for the NDC. Although he cited the legal landmine over the leadership crisis rocking the party, there is no doubt that the major reason for his decision was the party’s lack of commitment to zoning which favours aspirants from the South given power rotation arrangement.

Atiku, who is from the North, has repeatedly maintained that he will contest the forthcoming presidential election and that he will not step down for anyone. This, pehaps, informed why he faulted NDC’s zoning of its presidential ticket to the South.

Zoning arrangement will help reduce political tension and reassure all regions that fairness and inclusion

The former vice president, who described the move as a setback to plans by opposition parties to defeat President Tinubu, noted that is meant to solely benefit an individual.

He maintained that presenting another southern candidate against President Tinubu, who is from the South, will place the opposition at a disadvantage ahead of the elections. He added that Nigeria’s electoral history does not support the idea of an opposition challenger from the same geo-political zone defeating a sitting president.

His words: “It is important to ask how a southern opposition candidate can realistically defeat a southern incumbent president. No such electoral outcome had occurred in the country’s political history.” The former vice president maintained that while the ruling APC may choose to retain power within the South, the opposition must approach the contest with a more strategic calculation rather than relying on sentiment or symbolic considerations.

Warning that emotional appeals around zoning could undermine the opposition’s chances in 2027, he said that defeating an incumbent president requires broad political realism and coalition-building. He also rejected claims that fairness demands that there should be another southern presidency, noting that by 2027, the South would have occupied the presidency for about 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to about 10 years for the North.

According to him, extending southern occupancy of the presidency by another four years would further widen the imbalance rather than address it, while accusing some political actors of inconsistency over zoning. He recalled that the principle was effectively set aside in 2011 after the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, when many northern politicians backed former President Jonathan despite expectations that power should remain in the North.

As it stands, the ADC, having foreclosed zoning, will have the trio of Atiku, Amaechi and a renowned economist and banker, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, slug it out today (May 25) for its presidential ticket. Interestingly, Amaechi, who is the only southerner in the race, would be squaring up against two northerners – Atiku and Hayatu-Deen – in a contest many have predicted to be a northern affair. However, the ADC National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, who expressed hope of a seamless, free and fair primary election, said the three contenders have committed to accept the outcome of the poll.

Stakeholders differ on zoning

No doubt, power is not served but struggled for, but some southern political leaders,, who weighed in on the zoning debate, particularly Atiku’s submission that another four years of power in the South would be to the disadvantage of the North, said the former vice president is being economical with the truth. Others, however, said that competence rather that zoning should be the talking point.

The founding national chairman of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and chieftain of apex Igbo body, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Chekwas Okorie, who spoke with New Telegraph on the zoning conundrum, said the issue of rotation of power may not be the main consideration as Nigerians elect a new president in 2017, but personality and character.

His words: “Everybody agrees that there is an unwritten convention that power should rotate between the North and South, and the PDP, which belonged Atiku to at the inception of the present dispensation before he started moving to other political parties, even has zoning in its constitution. Unfortunately, he has contested presidential elections in the past without regard to the zoning convention; whether it was the turn of the North or the South.

“However, my personal feeling about zoning and which I tried to implement, when I founded APGA, was that the party’s presidential ticket will remain in the South-East, election after election until the quest for a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction is achieved because I had already seen the obstacles that impedes an Igbo person emerging as the presidential candidate of major political party, especially after what happened to Dr. Alex Ekwueme at the PDP convention in 1999.

“Having said that, the issue of where a political party chooses its presidential candidate from is its prerogative. Before a party picks a presidential candidate from any part of the country, it must have calculated that it must be to its advantage. It shouldn’t be on the basis of any form of convention or arrangement but it was the PDP that introduced this arrangement.

“Be that as it may, the mood today in Nigeria is that the South will do eight years but many people believe that whereas it is agreed that the South should do eight years, it mustn’t be President Tinubu who should do that eight years because his government has been the most unpopular we’ve had in recent time. “Besides this, it is clear that the North is not backing his return to power. This is as a majority of Nigerians, particularly the youth are determined to see somebody who represents their aspiration emerge as president in 2027 and this is where Peter Obi comes in.

“Obi, having shown promise in the 2023 election, and continued immediately to consolidate on the gains of that experience to the extent that he now has Kwankwaso and other notable northern political on his side, and they are saying that if power must remain in the South, Obi is their number one choice.

So, I believe that there will be a three-horse race and the issue of rotation of power may not be the main consideration but the issue of personality and character.” A chieftain of the APC and former Director General of Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu, who spoke on the issue, dismissed Atiku’s stance as a “classic case of self-denial.” He argued that the former vice president is one of the primary beneficiaries of the very system he now seeks to discredit.

His words: “How can one of the foremost beneficiaries of the zoning convention suddenly deny its profound significance in promoting national cohesion, inclusion, equity, peace, and justice?” he queried. Okechukwu reminded the former vice president that while laws carry legal weight, conventions carry the moral authority necessary for governing diverse societies. Pointedly, he asked if Atiku would have ever reached the heights of the vice presidency without such an arrangement.

“Has he forgotten why he stormed out of the PDP presidential primary process in 2014 and joined us in APC, after President Goodluck Jonathan emerged as the party’s candidate,” he said. Okechukwu described Atiku’s line of reasoning as a disappointing descent into “identity politics,” the exact friction zoning was intended to soothe. On Atiku’s submission that the South would have held power for 18 years compared to the North’s 10 by 2027, Okechukwu accused the former vice president of “selective amnesia.”

He noted that Northern Nigeria presided over the country for over four decades following independence in 1960, adding that “equity cannot be discussed in fragments or based on convenient arithmetic “ The senator representing Anambra Senatorial District, Victor Umeh, who also defended zoning, particularly as regards to NDC’s decision, described the move as a strategic step aimed at preserving national unity and political balance.

He stressed that ignoring regional sensitivities in a diverse country like Nigeria could threaten stability. Umeh said the party recognised the need to respect Nigeria’s informal powersharing arrangement between the North and South and resolved that the South should complete what he described as the remaining four years of its expected eightyear hold on the presidency before power shifts back to the North in 2031.

He added that the zoning arrangement will help reduce political tension and reassure all regions that fairness and inclusion remain part of the country’s democratic process. “That is how you preserve national unity. You cannot pretend that people are very sensitive to these things. NDC was strategic enough to reason in that direction,” he stated.

Kwankwaso, who declared support for zoning the presidency to the South and his willingness to serve as running mate to Obi, if adopted by their political alliance, explained that leaders within the coalition movement had resolved to support a southern presidential candidate in order to maintain national balance and address agitations surrounding power rotation.

“It is with great sense of unity and solidarity, that as a loyal party member, I support the decision to zone the presidential ticket of the NDC to the South, so that it allows the region to complete its turn in producing national leadership,” he said, adding that the zoning arrangement presents an opportunity for national healing.

“This represents a true opportunity for true national healing. We shall work in abidance with the party’s agreement to ensure fairness and federal character in all ramifications,” he said. A former presidential candidate and activist, Omoyele Sowore, who rejected political conversations around zoning ahead of the 2027 general election, criticised the practice of zoning political offices in Nigeria along regional, ethnic and religious lines.

He insisted that leadership positions should instead be based on competence, integrity and character. “I have never been part of any zoning conversation. Nigerians should stop zoning the presidency or any political office to any region. They should zone it to competence,” he said, noting that the country’s longstanding zoning arrangement contributes to the emergence of unqualified leaders. “They should zone it to people with character. It is part of this zoning that produces some of the worst characters around this country.

You zone to religious groups, geographical groups and ethnic groups. Look at where you are,” he said. Sowore maintained that his political movement African Action Congress (AAC) does not recognise zoning based on ethnicity or geography but rather prioritises merit and leadership capacity. “We are not doing zoning in our party. Our party doesn’t have a zoning policy. The only zones we recognise are zones of competence, character, integrity, intelligence and vision. We zone to visionaries,” he said.

Sowore also dismissed claims that politicians who attain power are genuinely interested in serving for only a single term, suggesting that many leaders enter office with long-term ambitions hidden from the public: “Don’t let anybody lie to you. There’s nobody who gets power in Nigeria who wants to leave in four years.

This zoning brouhaha is a deliberate distraction from the important issues that we should be discussing

They’re just fooling those who might want to be fooled,” he said. A chieftain of the ADC and former presidential candidate, Dele Momodu, on his part, described the growing debate over presidential zoning ahead of the 2027 elections as a deliberate distraction from Nigeria’s pressing national challenges.

Momodu argued that politicians have shifted public attention away from insecurity, poor electricity supply, and governance failures by focusing excessively on regional politics and ethnic divisions. “I’m not going to be bogged into this zoning brouhaha because I’ve realised that it is a deliberate distraction from the important issues that we should be discussing.

Instead of us now discussing we have no electricity, security is nil, and so on and so forth, all we’re now talking about is where a man comes from. I think it’s like someone has hypnotized us. We have been jazzed into thinking only about what part of the country you come from,” he said.

Momodu argued that the ruling APC has continued to amplify the zoning debate because it believes regional sentiments remain crucial to securing electoral victory in 2027. According to him, the issue has now overshadowed more pressing conversations about governance and national development. “Let me say zoning has suddenly become important because politicians now see it as the only credential required to win an election, especially the presidential election.

The APC and Tinubu know very well that if they don’t drum up this issue of zoning, there is no clear path to victory for them. They know it; it’s very clear,” he said. He further alleged that President Tinubu’s politics has deepened regional divisions across the country, creating an atmosphere where Nigerians increasingly view political issues through a North-versus-South lens.

On concerns that ignoring zoning could alienate Southern voters, Momodu insisted that politics ultimately revolves around winning elections through numbers and effective strategy rather than sentiment.

His words: “Politics is a game of numbers. You can be sanctimonious, you can preach for as long as you want about zoning. If you’re not able to win elections, you’re wasting your time.” He further argued that although zoning remains an important political conversation in Nigeria, it is not backed by any constitutional provision preventing either a northerner or southerner from contesting the presidency.

“Since there is nothing in the constitution that says a northerner cannot run, a southerner cannot run, it is the decision of the party that matters. It is the party that will determine which strategy favours it best. You cannot say because you want a southerner to run, therefore you are ready to take a risk and continue to run the race.”

Momodu, a known supporter of Atiku, maintained that elections don’t run on emotion and that the former vice president cannot be pressured out of the 2027 presidential race on the basis of zoning or any other factor. “This campaign against Atiku, is well-coordinated. He’s not a foolish old man; he knows that what he has built delicately, meticulously and tenaciously, he will see it to the end. You cannot bully him out of a contest; it is his right.

If he is going against the constitution, I will not support him, but he has not done anything to go against the constitution of Nigeria,” he stated. Hayatudeen (ADC presidential aspirant), who also decried that the debate over zoning is diverting Nigerians’ attention from urgent, lifethreatening challenges confronting the nation, called for a decisive shift in national discourse towards what he described as the real issues – worsening insecurity, economic decline and massive unemployment.

“Recently, 416 people were abducted and threatened with execution. What has that got to do with zoning? The thousands of our fellow citizens killed over the last three years, what has that got to do with zoning? The mother who cannot afford food, the father who cannot send his child to school, what has any of that got to do with zoning? “Nigeria needs leadership anchored not on geographical considerations but on competence, character and empathy.

It doesn’t matter where you come from. What matters is that you have the capacity, the skill, the vision and the deep empathy to deliver for every single Nigerian,” he said. He argued that the country’s deepening security crisis is rooted in longstanding economic failures, linking rising violence to decades of poor economic management. “Nothing happens in a vacuum. There has to be an underlying cause.

The economy has been under-managed and has underperformed for at least 20 years. Consequently, poverty has increased five or six-fold, with about 110 million Nigerians now living below the poverty line,” he said. While it may be too early to draw a conclusion on where the pendulum would swing to in the 2027 presidential election, it is left to be seen whether zoning will influence the outcome of the election.