…PMI crashes to 49.4 on M’East crisis
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.4 points in April from 53.2 points in March, indicating a contraction in aggregate economic activity-the first recorded contraction after 16 consecutive months of sustained expansion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) PMI report for April 2026.
The report, which also said that out of the 36 sub-sectors covered in the survey, nineteen recorded contraction in economic activity while one was stationary, noted that the slight moderation in overall economic conditions, “may not be unconnected to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and risk tensions in the Middle East.”
It stated: “The Composite PMI, alongside two major sectoral indices Industry and Services edged below the 50-point threshold, while Agriculture continued to expand, collectively indicating a marginal moderation in overall economic conditions. This slight moderation may not be unconnected to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and risk tensions in the Middle East.”
On the three major sectoral indices, the report said that the industry sector PMI stood at 49.5 points in April 2026, compared with 54.0 points in March 2026, “indicating marginal contraction in industrial activity.” It also said that the marginal contraction in the industry sector was “driven by decreases recorded across all sectoral indicators except production and delivery time.”
“Out of the 17 sub-sectors surveyed within the industry sector, nine recorded expansions, while the remaining eight sub-sectors reported contractions. “The higher contraction levels across the sub-sectors reversed the industry sector’s earlier expansionary momentum, leading to a modest overall decline during the review period,” it added.
Similarly, the report stated that “the Services Sector index, at 48.8 points in April 2026, indicated contraction in services-related activities for the first month after fourteen consecutive months of recorded expansion. “Ten sub-sectors covered in the survey recorded contraction, while four subsectors recorded expansion.
The Transportation & Warehousing subsector reported the highest contraction, while Educational Services recorded the highest expansion.” However, on the agric sector, the report said: “The Agriculture Sector Index stood at 50.2 points in April 2026, underscoring sustained expansion. The sector has remained in expansionary territory for twenty-one consecutive months.
