Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported an estimated 57 million barrels of jet fuel between April 2024 and April 2026, with shipments fluctuating sharply month-to-month but rising to a peak of about 160,000 barrels per day in the latest data.

An analysis of export volumes from energy intelligence platform Kpler shows that the refinery’s monthly shipments, measured in thousand barrels per day, varied widely across the 25-month period, reflecting changing demand patterns and production capacity across Africa, Europe and the Americas.

Findings from the data showed that exports began at relatively low levels in early 2024 when the refinery commenced operations before gaining momentum.

In April 2024, exports stood at about 20,000bpd, rising sharply to around 70,000bpd in May before easing to about 50,000bpd in June. Shipments increased again to approximately 65,000bpd in July, then moderated to around 55,000bpd in August.

Exports declined further to about 35,000bpd in September before recovering to roughly 45,000bpd in October. According to the data by Kpler, volumes strengthened towards year-end, reaching about 55,000bpd in November and around 65,000bpd in December 2024.

In January 2025, exports were estimated at about 50,000bpd, followed by a sharp jump to around 115,000bpd in February and about 110,000bpd in March, marking the first major surge in shipments.

Volumes dropped to roughly 70,000bpd in April 2025, then climbed again to around 100,000bpd in May, before easing to about 65,000bpd in June.

A significant spike was recorded in July 2025, when exports rose to approximately 145,000bpd, one of the highest levels in the period under review. This was followed by a decline to around 75,000bpd in August, before rising again to about 95,000bpd in September.

Exports hovered around 75,000bpd in October, increased slightly to about 80,000bpd in November, and remained at roughly 80,000bpd in December 2025.

In 2026, exports dipped to around 55,000bpd in January, then rose to about 70,000bpd in February and approximately 95,000bpd in March.

However, the US-Iran war changed the narrative, and the highest export figure was recorded in April 2026, as shipments surged to an average of 160,000 barrels a day.

To estimate total barrels exported, each month’s average figures were multiplied by the number of days in that month.

For instance, a month with 100,000bpd translates to roughly three million barrels over 30 days. Applying this method across all months and summing the totals produces a cumulative estimate of about 57 million barrels of jet fuel exported since 2024.

Further breakdown of the data shows that Africa accounted for the largest share, receiving an estimated 23 million barrels over the period. Europe followed with about 17 million barrels, while the Americas accounted for roughly 11 million barrels. Other destinations received a marginal two million barrels.

Africa’s dominance reflecting strong regional demand and proximity advantages was obvious, while Europe’s growing share, particularly from mid-2025, indicates expanding access to more competitive international markets, especially with the crisis in the Middle East.

The cumulative export volume points to the scale of the Dangote refinery’s operations within a short timeframe, positioning it as a key supplier in both regional and international aviation fuel markets.

The figures, derived from chart-based estimates by Kpler, show the ability of the refinery to supply fuel locally and internationally.

According to Oilprice.com, domestic jet fuel demand stands at just 13,000bpd, yet Dangote exported around 100,000 bpd in March. Europe emerged as a key destination, absorbing roughly half of these volumes.

In early April alone, 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel were loaded for Europe, with France, Spain and the UK among the key buyers.

It was projected that the Dangote Group may feel tempted to redirect flows from lower-margin African markets toward Europe.

“In practice, Dangote could shift as much as an additional 40,000 bpd of jet exports away from regional buyers to Europe without straining domestic supply,” the report said.

In Nigeria, airlines threatened to shut down over high JetA-1 prices. But an official of the Dangote Group said the company could not subsidise aviation fuel, having subsidised petrol and diesel.

Amid the pricing row between airlines and fuel marketers, the Dangote refinery said it continued to expand its footprint in the international aviation fuel market by exporting over a billion litres between March and April.

Industry data, according to the refinery, indicated that the facility exported approximately 876,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe within the period under review, about 456,000 tonnes in March and an additional 420,000 tonnes by 20 April.

These export volumes, it said, underscored its growing capacity and improved logistics, further reinforcing Nigeria’s emerging role in the global downstream oil and gas market, even as it strengthens domestic energy security.