The naira recorded a mixed performance on Wednesday, with the currency depreciating slightly at the official window to 1,420.69/$ while appreciating in the parallel market to 1,480/$.
According to Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market data on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the local currency shed. In contrast, the currency gained 0.03 per cent to 1,480/$ in the parallel market, according to Cowry Asset Management Limited. CardinalStone indicated that the naira slid to 1,492/$ at the parallel market from 1,490/$ on Tuesday.
In a market report issued on Tuesday, AIICO Capital noted that the naira had strengthened below 1,420/$ at the official window on the back of improved supply from local participants, with trading ranges between 1,421.00 and 1,418.40 per dollar. The report also highlighted continued growth in Nigeria’s external reserves, which rose by $49.34m to $45.95bn as of 19 January 2026.
Analysts expect the naira to trade around similar levels in the near term, barring any major shifts in supply.
The projection of a stronger naira has been in spite of the current play in the parallel market. Cordros Securities projected a stronger naira in 2026, supported by improved agricultural output and declining global oil prices.
In its outlook document titled ‘Building Momentum Beyond the Rebound’, the firm forecast the naira to trade within N1,350–N1,450/$, compared with a year-end 2025 estimate of N1,450/$. The research house also expects inflationary pressures to ease over the year, with headline inflation forecast at 16.3 per cent year-on-year, declining to 14.7 per cent by December 2026. Analysts said a firmer naira would reduce the cost of imported goods and raw materials, particularly food and manufactured products, while lower fuel prices, projected at an average of N817.50 per litre, would ease logistics and production costs.
Additionally, Cordros highlighted that mechanisation and improved access to inputs would support agricultural output, helping to stabilise or reduce food prices. With food representing 40 per cent of the consumer basket, improved crop yields are expected to be a key driver of the anticipated disinflationary trend.
The mixed currency performance underscores the continued gap between the official and parallel markets, even as broader macroeconomic conditions point toward a strengthening naira and moderating inflation in the year ahead.
