Mr. Peter Obi’s defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is a political movement that might dethrone Bola Tinubu as Nigeria president in 2027, a source told Sunday Telegraph. The source, who said Obi’s choice of ADC ended months of suspense and worry, expressed confidence that the alliance between him and the former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will end Tinubu’s presidency in 2027.

Obi joined ADC on December 31, thereby ending months of speculations of his political future ahead of next year’s general elections. The former vice president had earlier joined the party in November, 2025. The former Anambra State governor contested the 2023 presidential election on Labour Party platform, but since the election, Labour Party has witnessed leadership crisis, making the party unviable platform for him to contest future elections.

The source, who asked not to be named, noted that the presidency has been disturbed since Obi’s declaration. According to the source: “The statement by (Bayo) Onanuga immediately Obi declared his membership of ADC betrayed this fear, and we expect more of such attack in future.

“We all know that among all politicians in this country, Peter Obi is the only one President Tinubu fears the most.” Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Information and Strategy, had in a statement on Wednesday criticised Obi’s declaration for the ADC.

Onanuga, in a statement, on his social media page, accused Obi of nursing bitterness over his loss of the 2023 presidential election. “What concerned me most were his references to books, professors, and other nations to buttress his belief that he has learnt from the masters and that Nigeria should be entrusted to him because he claims to know the secrets of national development.

“Obi is so blind that he cannot see all these achievements… he will play second fiddle and end up being Atiku’s running mate in 2027, like we witnessed in 2019,” he stated. Obi was running mate to Atiku on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019, though late President Muhammadu Buhari was later declared the winner of the election.

The former vice president and Obi contested on different platforms in 2023, and came second and third respectively. However, their combined votes of 13, 086,053 against Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes would have given them victory if they had run on the same ticket.

Now that they are in the same political party, the presidency views their possibly combination as big threat to President Tinubu’s re-election. Phrank Shaibu, a media aide to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, said Onanuga’s reaction to Obi’s move to ADC revealed “panic in Aso Rock.” Said Shaibu in a tweet:“My dear Bayo Onanuga, as media adviser to @officialABAT, this outburst says more about panic in Aso Rock than it does about @PeterObi.

“You did not write as a media manager; you wrote as a defender under pressure… Calling Obi ‘wandering’ while defending an administration built on political migrations and elite bargains is hypocrisy dressed up as commentary. “Your attempt to brand legitimate electoral grievances as ‘bitterness’ is not analysis; it is damage control. Millions of Nigerians questioned the 2023 process.

You can sneer at them, but you cannot erase them. “It is about fear that Nigerians are organising beyond your control. As Tinubu’s spokesman, you should know this: insults don’t win elections, spin doesn’t fill stomachs, and arrogance does not intimidate hungry people.”

Political analysts believe it will be difficult for Tinubu if Atiku and Obi contest the 2027 on the same political platform. In 2023, apart from their combined votes of 13,086053, the duo won 24 states and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as against Tinubu’s 12 states.

A political commentator, Aare Amerijoye said incumbency factor will not save Tinubu from defeat in 2027. Although, the All Progressives Congress (APC) witnessed influx of defectors, both governors and members of the National Assembly, but this may not guarantee Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. According to Amerijoye: “History does not ask who once won. History asks who can still win.”

In 2023, Tinubu secured a total 127,370, which is about 5.72 per cent of the total 2,224,934 votes cast in the election in South East, without winning any of the five states. All the five states went to Obi, who scored a whopping 1,952,998 votes (about 87.78 per cent).

Amerijoye, however, said this is because APC is not only unpopular in the South East but because the party is not competitive in the zone, notwithstanding that APC was in control of two of the states at that time. There is no guarantee that the situation will change in 2027 even though APC has extended its number of state in the zone to three. Obi played a fast one.

He joined the ADC with most serving National Assembly members and former governors, who once controlled structures of their former parties. Amerijoye said Tinubu’s South West is not even a guarantee. The president won four out of the six states in the zone with a 53.59 per cent votes.

The other two states, Osun and Lagos, were won by Obi and Atiku. The total number of states Tinubu won in the whole of South was just five, compared to Obi’s nine. The former Anambra State governor won three of the six states in South-South while Tinubu won only one, Rivers State, and Atiku two.