Prof Okey Ikechukwu is the Executive Director of Development Specs Academy. In this interview monitored on Arise Television, he speaks on proponents of the coalition moving into African Democratic Congress (ADC), crisis in Labour Party (LP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as well as challenges before the All Progressives Congress (APC), ANAYO EZUGWU writes
Some people in the South-East caucus of the PDP are saying that the reinstatement of Samuel Anyanwu is not in their favour. Do you think what the PDP declared was pyrrhic victory?
It might turn out to be at the end of the day. The critical issue on the table is the choice of Anyanwu, and then the submission from the South-East Caucus that, look, this man is not our candidate. Question number one is: Is this new in the PDP or in any of the political parties?
The answer is no. If you think back to 2019, Atiku contested for president under the PDP, with Peter Obi as his running mate. The same reaction you’re getting now is the reaction you got from the South-East.
If you recall, after Obi was chosen by Atiku, there was a press conference by those who called themselves South-East PDP stakeholders. That group was led by then Governor Dave Umahi. They addressed Nigerians and said Obi is not their choice, among other things. But the candidacy or choice of Obi stood despite that.
That reaction was based, I think, on the assumption or the understanding that Senator Ike Ekweremadu was going to be the candidate. And if you recall, the feeler from the PDP was that nobody knew this was coming and that Atiku made the announcement and fled the premises. You asked whether it will be a pyrrhic victory.
Remember that in the 2019 election, Obi got majority votes in the South-East, but those opposed to him made sure that Buhari got 25 per cent of the votes, which he needed in order to win. So, it is for them to ask themselves questions: What we are doing now, what will it deliver to us? But more importantly, you may have a party caucus that’s also not on ground.
The challenge is for Anyanwu to prove that he’s the big boy those supporting him think he is. So, if he’s the big boy, if he has clout, but his brothers and sisters don’t want him, let him prove those opposed to him wrong. Let’s place some facts on the table and then come to the matter of general politics.
In principle, you cannot challenge a political party for taking a position on any issue. But from the matter of building party cohesion and synergy and giving everybody a sense of belonging, it would make sense to say that if you’re choosing somebody from my family, I should be the one to say this is the person I want to represent us at the village square. I can understand the caucus’ concern.
But take that concern even further back to the time of President Olusegun Obasanjo, most of the Senate presidents chosen when the South-East had the presidency, were they really candidates of the zone? Probably, except one. Those are the things to consider. Ao, as far as I’m concerned, what’s going on in the PDP now is not unusual.
Do you think that this decision will lead to PDP imploding before the 2027 general election?
The PDP has imploded long ago, and I’ll give you the reason for it. If you think of the re-entry of Atiku into the PDP and got the ticket, and how many people got annoyed, and how very powerful politicians in the North said he has gotten the ticket, let us see how he’s going to win the presidency, the party is trying to pretend that it still has an identity.
The party is trying to pretend that the National Executive Committee (NEC) can actually take binding decisions. It is trying to pretend that it can control his members when nobody can control Nyesom Wike. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; PDP will participate in the next elections but I doubt that it will contest.
What that means is; if you’re contesting with me for a gunfight, and you come with a catapult, you’re participating, you’re not contesting because the contest is for the prepared and equipped to win.
The party is not poised to win the election at the level of strategy, at the level of cohesion, at the level of building internal democracy, and at the level of making all the zones feel they belong. On the issue in the South-East; what that would mean is that those who are angry will engage in antiparty activities because they will want to spite Anyanwu.
They will say, okay, you say you’re the big boy, you’ve gotten the secretaryship, despite our opposition, we will not do anything for the party. Those are the challenges and dangers the PDP should contemplate and navigate at the moment, now that it has taken the decision that it has to be Senator Anyanwu.
What do you make of the emergence of the coalition, how they have adopted African Democratic Congress (ADC) and they’ve brought in disgruntled PDP members as well?
You cannot have a coalition of people who are not only disgruntled, but all of them have had very disturbing relationships with each other in the past, have ideological differences, and also, nearly all of them are angling for the presidential ticket. So, who will step down for the other.
Whereas it would be wonderful for them to displace the APC… are they really preparing to do that because there’s a difference between engagement and strategic engagement
Secondly, all the talk about coalition we are talking about, apart from Abuja, Lagos, and maybe press releases, what efforts are being made at the levels below the national, even the periphery of the national, to create some kind of understanding, some kind of building.
They want to form a coalition at the top, and with it rule Nigeria. That is problem number one. Problem number two is the relationship between all of them. Remember that Nasir El-Rufai has the challenge of the MuslimMuslim ticket. Then Babachir Lawal is a Christian. Many people think that Atiku Abubakar should step down. Rotimi Amaechi is on the table, and some of us are not entirely sure what he’s bringing to that table.
David Mark is also there; a three-time Senate president with a lot of clout, among other things. Picture a room where all of them are sitting together to form a government for the Federal Republic of Nigeria. How will the conversation go?
What are the policy issues they will bring up? They are likely to discuss positions. It will not be about development. The concern is to remove the APC government. Supposing, for instance, in doing this, they are telling us this is what we want to put on the table once we get rid of the APC, there will be a basis for conversation.
But to sound very angry, to tell us that all of us are suffering, we know that, including those who are telling us that we are suffering. So, the questions should be: What do you intend to do about it? What are the alternative policies? What strategies are in place?
The parties in which you are today, are they doing well? Is there internal democracy in those parties? The states where your party is governing today, are they doing well? Are the governors exceptional? When you consider these, you will view the coalition talk with a lot of pessimism.
Whereas it would be wonderful for them to displace the APC and replace the party by whatever name they choose to call the party, the question I ask myself is: Are they really preparing to do that because there’s a difference between engagement and strategic engagement?
You want to deal with the rain and a leaking roof, and you bring only buckets, you’re not thinking of replacing the roof. They are not being strategic, and the profile of the individuals involved presents a double barrel negative challenge for all of them.
They may pull it off, but I really need to see what they’ll do that’ll be so strategic as to displace a man, who put all of them on the table, gave each of them 24 strokes of the cane, despite everything put in place for him and he became president. Now that he’s president, he will also not probably be in the balcony drinking, and then you replace him.
They should prepare for a fight if they are serious, and I don’t see them being sufficiently strategic to do that. The effect of what I’m saying is that they should design a fantastic strategy for displacing the APC. But as it is now, I don’t see that strategy.
What do you make of the speculation that Governor Peter Mbah might be one of the next governors to decamp to the APC?
Peter Mbah’s defection is a possibility. I don’t know about him but is it possible that he will defect? The answer is yes. Could that make people say this man is not reliable? Yes, they can say that. But I will also ask: Is ideological conversion possible?
Yes. Do defections occur in political parties? Yes. Do some of us like it? No. Does it remove the fact that somebody can do it? It doesn’t. If you don’t want him to defect, give him reasons not to defect.
If somebody is going to defect from your party, why is he doing so? What’s the problem with your party? Why is he moving? If you can’t prevent him, first of all, admit your own shortcomings that are making people vacate your own address.
Do you think that they are ignoring the Peter Obi effect as well as the support he has in the South-East?
Obi is very popular not only in the South-East, but all over the federation. The Obidient Movement is strong and powerful and even growing stronger. But as I keep telling the movement, or whatever it is called, there are no polling booths on the internet.
There’s no polling booth on Facebook or Instagram. Polling booths are in specific local locations, and they have to be manned by party agents. That’s fact number one. Fact number two is the Labour Party or the Obidients, or both of them together.
Are they building any kind of cohesion such that there is a progressive development of ideological purity, group cohesion, meetings and encounters, leading to the development of structures at the ground level? I’m not seeing it. Finally on the Obi factor, Obidients have argued convincingly and correctly that they’ve proven a lot of people wrong.
They say that without structure you cannot win elections in Nigeria nut without structures, see all the votes we got in Lagos, see all the votes we got all over the country. Fantastic, but I ask: You got all the votes, no question about that, did those votes come into your pocket? If you know the answer to that question, are you doing anything about it?
So, they are just wasting the time they need to prepare for the next elections in speechmaking, in self-adulation, and in what you might call conversations that are not going further down. They are wasting the potential and possibilities of that movement.
