…lowers SSA’s growth forecast to 4.1%
The World Bank has forecast that Nigeria’s inflation rate will decline from 23 per cent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026 and drop further to 10.7 per cent by 2028, “reflecting the lagged effects of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.”
The Washington-based multilateral development institution, which made the prediction in the latest edition of its “Africa Economic Update,” published on Wednesday, also said that Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow at an average of about 4.3 per cent per year during 2006-28. According to the world’s largest multilateral creditor, this growth will be “supported by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual pickup in investment.”
It further stated that services, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate, will remain the main drivers of growth, “while agriculture and industry are likely to expand more slowly due to ongoing structural constraints.”
The report said that although poverty in Nigeria remains elevated, “it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.”
“Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” it added. Nigeria’s headline inflation fell for the eleventh consecutive month to 15.06 per cent in February down from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Although the World Bank said that sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook continues to improve despite volatile global conditions, the Bretton Woods institution said it now expects growth of 4.1 per cent for the region in 2026, unchanged from 2025, but down from the 4.4 per cent it had forecast in October.
The bank stated that numbers were revised down since the war in the Middle East broke out in late February, pushing up fuel and fertilizer costs and threatening investment flows, adding that heavy debt burdens were already affecting growth.
In fact, on Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt burden, the report said: “Debt vulnerabilities in the region remain elevated, reflecting a partial containment of the pressures that emerged during the pandemic and the subsequent global tightening cycle.
