A silent, high-stakes selection is underway across Nigeria, and its outcome will determine which states thrive in the digital age and which are left with perpetually poor connectivity and stunted economic growth.
While over $1 billion in new telecoms investment floods into the country, this windfall is not landing equally. According to industry insiders, mobile network operators are actively channeling these funds into states that roll out the red carpet, while deliberately bypassing those that create a hostile regulatory environment, creating a new era of “digital haves and have-nots.”
This “digital redlining” is the direct result of a stark warning from the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON). States burdening operators with a maze of up to 56 different taxes, deliberately slow-rolling right-of-way approvals, or failing to protect infrastructure from vandalism are being quietly marked on industry maps as “no-go” zones for new investments.
The financial strain is already immense, with operators spending over 40 million litres of diesel monthly to sustain operations, a cost that is only exacerbated by these regulatory hurdles. “The investment capital is here and it’s moving, but it’s intelligent money. It flows to the path of least resistance,” explained an industry executive familiar with the investment strategies, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“Why would we build a state-of-the-art base station in a state where it takes six months for permits and we’re taxed into oblivion, when the state next door welcomes us with a streamlined process? The equation is simple: hostile policies equal network neglect.” The catalyst for this investment surge, as confirmed by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), was the longawaited tariff adjustment in early 2025.
This single policy shift, the first in nearly a decade, restored investor confidence by correcting a critical imbalance in the sector’s value chain. For years, tower companies could adjust prices annually, while mobile operators were locked into fixed rates, creating a financial stranglehold that discouraged fresh capital.
The unlock has been immediate and significant. The NCC’s Executive Vice-Chairman, Dr. Aminu Maida, revealed that new equipment has been arriving since June, with a targeted rollout already beginning in the North Central region and the Federal Capital Territory.
“We are closely tracking the rollout and we step in when they encounter challenges with state authorities,” Maida stated, explicitly linking the speed of deployment to state-level cooperation. This proactive monitoring underscores the NCC’s understanding that federal policy alone cannot guarantee nationwide progress. However, this aggressive expansion, the most significant since the pre-COVID era, has a stark flip side.
The consequence for states deemed “uncooperative” is not merely a missed opportunity; it is an active slide backward. Their residents will be saddled with deteriorating call quality, slower data speeds, and increasingly limited access to the digital economy. This goes beyond mere inconvenience. It means students struggling with elearning, small businesses unable to compete in digital marketplaces, and healthcare facilities cut off from telemedicine advancements.
The digital divide, once a matter of access, is now morphing into a chasm of quality, locking entire regions out of the modern economy. The human impact of this divergence is profound. A tech startup in a “connected” state can seamlessly collaborate with global partners, while a similar enterprise in a “hostile” state battles with unreliable internet, stifling its growth and potential for job creation.
