The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, has said that Nigeria could achieve GDP growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent in 2026 if economic reforms are sustained, budget assumptions are made more realistic, and structural bottlenecks limiting productivity are addressed.
Yusuf, who is an economist and onetime Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
stated this on Tuesday during an interview on ARISE NEWS, where he noted that although key macroeconomic indicators are showing signs of stabilisation, several downside risks could undermine growth projections if not carefully managed.
He identified oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, security challenges and controversies surrounding tax reforms as major risks, stressing the need for caution in fiscal planning.
“Yes, many of us have projected a very positive outlook. But oil price volatility is essentially a risk,” Yusuf said, urging the National Assembly to reassess budget assumptions, particularly around crude oil prices and output levels.
According to him, overly optimistic revenue projections have historically weakened budget implementation and credibility.
“The more caution you have about those assumptions, particularly revenue assumptions, the better for planning and the better for the realisation of the budgets,” he said, adding that assumptions for the coming fiscal year should be made “a lot more realistic.”
Yusuf also referenced geopolitical developments, including tensions involving Venezuela, noting that while such issues could influence global oil markets, their immediate impact may be limited.
“Venezuela has not been performing so well in the oil market. Output has been low, investment has been low, and sanctions have affected production, so what is happening may not materially affect the oil market in the short term,” he explained.
On tax reforms, Yusuf acknowledged that while recent controversies appear to be easing, he warned that implementation must be handled with care to avoid unsettling the economy.
“The law has to be obeyed, but implementation has to be as pragmatic as it can be, so that all the anxiety around this will not create another major problem for the economy,” he said.
Addressing concerns over jobless growth, the CPPE chief argued that strong GDP figures alone do not guarantee improved welfare, stressing that employment generation depends largely on investment and productivity.
“Job creation is about investment, and investment is about the quality of the investment environment,” Yusuf said, adding that macroeconomic stability, though important, must be complemented by reforms that enhance competitiveness and productivity.
He pointed to persistent structural challenges such as power supply, regulation and institutional inefficiencies, warning that these issues discourage both existing and prospective investors.
“If you have a good macroeconomic environment and you are grappling with productivity issues, it will be very difficult for investors to sustain their investments or for new ones to come in,” he said.
Yusuf identified agriculture, construction, trade, ICT, entertainment and tourism as job-elastic sectors capable of driving inclusive growth if supported by the right mix of fiscal, monetary and trade policies.
“These are sectors that employ a lot of people. When they grow, they deliver more jobs,” he said, emphasising that construction, agriculture and distributive trade have particularly high employment potential given Nigeria’s large population.
He also called for deep regulatory and public sector reforms, warning that a transactional mindset within some regulatory agencies continues to frustrate private sector operators.
“The regulatory environment is a major factor in the investment climate. Regulators can sometimes be major impediments to investment,” Yusuf said, adding that public institutions must align with broader economic objectives rather than narrow interests.
According to him, economic transformation will ultimately depend on creating an environment that allows private enterprise to thrive.
“It is the private sector that creates jobs, not government. It is a function of the environment and the combination of policy instruments that support entrepreneurs in the economy,” he said.
