Africa’s biggest economy is targeting a period of reform-driven economic stability that could bolster growth and investor confidence, according to the 2026 Nigeria Macroeconomic Outlook by EnterpriseNGR in partnership with EY.

The report, unveiled in Lagos on Thursday, forecasts real GDP growth of around 4.4 per cent this year, supported by an expansion in the services sector, improved foreign exchange conditions, and stronger financial intermediation.

Economists said the combination of structural reforms and macroeconomic stability may help attract foreign capital at a time when emerging markets face headwinds from global interest rate volatility. The report positions Nigeria as a potential bright spot for investors seeking higher returns in Africa, amid slowing growth in major economies.

Commenting on the report, Chief Executive of EnterpriseNGR, Obi Ibekwe, said the report goes beyond documenting economic trends to provide a guide for navigating the opportunities arising from Nigeria’s reform-driven macroeconomic landscape.

“It is with a strong sense of purpose that I present the EnterpriseNGR 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: A Financial and Professional Services Perspective, a landmark publication developed through the strategic collaboration between EnterpriseNGR and EY,” Ibekwe said.

“Anchored on the theme ‘Reform-Led Stability: Boosting Confidence, Unlocking Sustainable Growth,’ this Outlook goes beyond documenting Nigeria’s economic evolution; it offers a clear, forward-looking guide to navigating the opportunities emerging from a reformed macroeconomic landscape.”

The executive noted that Nigeria has entered a phase of stability and reform-led growth, following a period of structural adjustments, including the unification of foreign exchange markets and fiscal policy recalibration. Key indicators support this shift. Inflation has moderated to 15.15 per cent, real GDP growth is gaining momentum, and foreign reserves have reached multi-year highs, providing over ten months of import cover.

Ibekwe also highlighted the financial and professional services sector as central to Nigeria’s economic recovery.

“The FPS sector is not just a participant in economic activity; it serves as a cornerstone of stability and a key driver of growth. With the implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 and the ongoing recapitalisation of banks and insurance companies, the sector is strengthening its balance sheets, governance, and capacity. It is now better positioned to mobilise capital, deepen financial inclusion, stimulate investments, create jobs, and support Nigeria’s ambition of building a $1tn economy by 2030,” she told stakeholders.

The report points to several other indicators of economic strength, including robust capital inflows, with nearly $21bn in foreign investment attracted in the first ten months of 2025, up about 70 per cent from 2024, as well as upgrades to Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook. Non-oil sectors now account for over 96 per cent of GDP, with growth in telecoms, financial intermediation, and commercial services, while inflation has eased under tight monetary policies to enhance predictability.

Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR, Omotayo Muritala, provided context on the report’s research methodology, drawing lessons from historical global monetary policy trends.

“Our projection in 2005 was essentially based on the gradual easing of monetary policy tightening. Central banks, including the leadership of the Central Bank of France, began to ease slightly, and this movement continued over time,” the economist said.

He outlined how global economic adjustments, investor behaviour, and trade shifts historically influenced capital flows and market performance, emphasising the importance of consistent policy to support economic stability.

The Outlook also underscores ongoing reforms in the real sector, including the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, growing downstream investments, and initiatives in gold and lithium refining, which are enhancing domestic value capture, export capacity, and industrialisation. Combined with fiscal reforms to expand the tax net and improve revenue administration, these measures are creating a more sustainable fiscal base, enabling greater infrastructure and social spending.

While EnterpriseNGR’s assessment is cautiously optimistic, it notes that stability remains conditional, with global trade fragmentation, geopolitical volatility, oil-price dynamics, and domestic infrastructure and security challenges continuing to influence Nigeria’s economic trajectory.

The 2026 Outlook is a flagship thought-leadership publication developed by EnterpriseNGR in collaboration with EY, aimed at synthesising macroeconomic data, policy analysis, and market insight to inform business strategy, investment decisions, and policy conversations.