The latest report on the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) performance for January to September 2025 has revealed a contrasting trend in Nigeria’s revenue landscape, with non-oil agencies outperforming expectations while key oil sector institutions fell short of their budgetary targets.
According to the data, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) delivered robust performances, surpassing their revenue projections by 21 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
The Ministry of Solid Minerals Development recorded the most impressive result, outperforming its budget target by a remarkable 100 per cent, reflecting renewed vigour and increased policy attention in the nation’s solid minerals sector. However, the report showed worrying shortfalls from oil and gas agencies.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) underperformed by 43 per cent, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recorded the steepest decline, missing its budget estimate by a massive 93 per cent. Analysts attributed these shortfalls to persistent challenges in the oil industry, including crude theft, production shortfalls, and pipeline vandalism factors that continue to weigh heavily on Nigeria’s fiscal performance despite high global oil prices.
Meanwhile, the solid minerals sector’s surge, alongside strong tax and customs revenues, underscores the growing importance of non-oil revenue sources in Nigeria’s fiscal framework. Improved tax administration by FIRS and enhanced compliance enforcement by Customs were cited as key enablers of the positive performance.
Despite the gains, analysts warn that the weak remittances from oil-linked agencies pose a major fiscal risk to revenue stability as the country approaches the final quarter of 2025. At its October 2025 meeting, chaired by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Shamsudeen B. Ogunjimi, the FAAC shared a total sum of N2.103 trillion among the three tiers of government as allocation for September 2025, derived from a gross total of N3.054 trillion.
