Although the Osun State governorship election is about one year away, the election would test the political might of the immediate past Interior Minister and past Governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola.

his is even as the withdrawal of the Minister of Blue and Marine Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, from the governorship race is causing ripples in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Those who confided in the Sunday Telegraph said that there is anger in the opposition party in Osun. “They are angry that President Bola Tinubu met with the incumbent Governor, Ademola Adeleke and his brother,” a Source said.

“The president, they said, told his brother, Oyetola, to step down. The other people in the Osun APC got to know that Adeleke was coming into the APC. They said No! After some time, Adeleke got in touch with him again, and they worked out the deal. Luckily for them, in the inner caucus of Tinubu, they said Adeleke is preferable.

“Whatever the former governor is plotting and planning with the APC, it is obvious that the alliance between Aregbesola and Adeleke has broken down because of the movement of Aregbesola to ADC (African Democratic Congress).”

Furthermore, the ADC coalition has said that it’s not going into an alliance with any party. They believe that they can stand alone and win.

For the Adeleke group, they prefer standing alone, since they believe the power of incumbency and the fact that the Tinubu group, the major challenge now is that one or two people are still hanging on.

But it is not sealed and delivered yet. “The way they know that it will work is that if the party’s national secretary, Ajibola Bashiru, withdraws his bid to become the candidate of the APC. It is a little bit complicated but some people who understand the game said he should be persuaded not to run. For now, he is oiling his machinary; he wants to run. That is why the Adeleke group asked Adeleke to remain in PDP and said that they would support Tinubu for the Presidency,” the Source added.

Another source said that the political game going on in Osun 2026 is a test of might among three people – Aregbesola, who may finally sound his death knell if he fails, Adeleke, and of course, the APC Group in Osun and the national secretary.

The Source said: “In that group are Iyiola Omisore and others. Of course, other key players like Olagunsoye Oyinlola, through an alliance with the Adelekes, are still in the PDP. Aregbesola is reaching out to him, but he will not play the game.”

Another source puts it in perspective: “The race for Osun 2026 is complicated, and it may sound the political death knell of some persons and affirm the ascendancy of others.

“The man, who may face the greatest of all tests, is Aregbesola. As the National Secretary of his party, his performance in his home state will go a long way in the national political landscape.

“If you are the national secretary and you cannot make any headway in your home state, that is why he is going to throw everything into the battle. He is going with his Omoluabi Movement, which has transmuted into the ADC completely in Osun. It is going to be more than a governorship contest; it will determine his political weight. That is why he is giving everything into the battle.

“Also, he is facing a formidable political opponent, the Presidency and Adeleke, the incumbent governor.”

But behind the scenes, Aregbesola and his group are doing what they call the pan Osun Alliance to fight the APC and the PDP. They want to pull out those who feel they have been shortchanged in the scheme of things in PDP and APC and have not got anything from the centre. But with the almost total declaration of Oyetola, because invariably, the power brokers in APC, conventionally, Oyetola is the leader of the APC in Osun.

“He is going around with his people; they are doing grassroots mobilisation. But some of the things they use to counter are: You are talking about good governance; you were doing half salary when you were there.

“The withdrawal of Oyetola is also significant. It is more of a political permutation that will, in the end, pave the way for whoever emerges.

“Underground, there is subtle pressure on Ajibola Bashiru not to run. If not that, his team should have been louder than it is now.”