Key members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, jointly known as OPEC+, on Sunday announced a higher-than-expected increase in production quotas following United States and Israeli strikes on Iran, which triggered retaliation by Tehran across the Middle East.

The eight-member V8 (Voluntary Eight) group within the alliance, which includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as several Gulf states affected by Tehran’s missile strikes, said it had agreed to a “production adjustment” of 206,000 barrels per day.

“This adjustment will be implemented in April,” the group said in a statement, according to a report by AFP. Nigeria is also a strong member of OPEC.

The statement did not directly reference the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, instead citing “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as justification for the increase.

Before the weekend meeting, analysts had projected a more modest rise of 137,000 barrels per day. However, Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, cautioned that the agreed increase might not be sufficient to prevent the Iran conflict from triggering a spike in oil prices when trading resumes on Monday.

Leon pointed to the possibility of Iran targeting the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil supply passes, in retaliation.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly contacted vessels to announce that the strait is closed. On Sunday, Iranian state television reported that an oil tanker in the strait was struck while allegedly attempting to “illegally” pass through and was sinking. Footage aired by the broadcaster showed a tanker ablaze at sea.

“If oil cannot move through Hormuz, an extra 206,000 barrels per day does very little to ease the market,” Leon said, adding that “logistics and transit risk matter more than production targets right now.”

He said the OPEC+ decision “is unlikely to calm markets.”

“Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” he added.

Apart from Russia and Saudi Arabia, the V8 group within OPEC+ comprises Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, all of which were targeted by Iranian attacks for a second consecutive day on Sunday. Algeria and Kazakhstan are also members of the group.