Nigeria’s trading sector attracted a total capital inflow of $249.54m in 2025, indicating a recovering economy as stronger retail activity and improved investor confidence renewed interest.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that capital importation into trade rose steadily throughout the year, climbing from $34.39 million in the first quarter to $15.00m in the second quarter, before surging to $80.94 million in the third quarter and peaking at $119.21 million in the fourth quarter.

The latest figures come amid broader growth in capital inflows, with the NBS reporting that total capital importation into Nigeria rose to $6.44bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 26.61 per cent increase from $5.09bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

Expert analysts explained that the improved performance of the trading sector reflects a rebound in domestic economic activity, particularly in retail, rather than the impact of continental trade agreements.

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, these analysts, including Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, stated that the inflows into the trading sector were largely driven by internal economic recovery and rising transaction volumes across retail channels.

“The capital imported into the trading sector does not have much to do with external trade deals such as the AfCFTA, because this is about the fact that the economy is recovering, and the momentum of economic activities is picking up,” Yusuf said.

He added, “It is shown in trade figures and in quite a few data points. Even if you look at statistics on financial transactions in the retail sector, you will see significant growth.”

Yusuf linked the surge in trade-related capital to the expansion of digital payments and retail transactions, citing fintech activity as a key indicator of momentum in the sector.

“You know, I was looking at the data, which was reported some few weeks ago, where it was reported that Moniepoint recorded transactions of over N400tn in 2025. That is a lot. That is all from Moniepoint, and you know, that is basically people playing in the trade area,” the CPPE chief remarked.

According to a Techpoint Africa report, Moniepoint processed about N412tn in transactions and over 14 billion transactions in 2025, underscoring the scale of retail and merchant activities across the country.

Yusuf said the growth in electronic payments, e-commerce and point-of-sale transactions had significantly deepened retail trade, making the segment increasingly attractive to both local and foreign investors.

“So, there is a lot that is happening in the trade sector, particularly in the retail end of the sector. E-commerce, all of those things are driving development in that space, and all these electronic payment systems are also facilitating a lot of retail transactions,” he said.

He further explained that improved foreign exchange conditions and ease of repatriation had boosted investor confidence, encouraging more inflows into trade-related businesses.

“A lot of investment is going into that segment of the economy because the economy is recovering, the foreign exchange situation is getting better, people are more confident now to bring in money to invest because when they make money, they can easily take it out,” Yusuf said.

The CPPE chief noted that capital inflows into trade are typically channelled into retail outlets, supermarkets, electronics, telecommunications devices and automobile sales.

“When people come and set up retail outlets or supermarkets, that is an investment in the trade sector. You have quite a few people selling electronics, telephones and other consumer goods. That is trade,” he added.

Also speaking, a former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Export Group, Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, said the rise in capital inflows aligns with improved macroeconomic stability and increased liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

“Trading is part of the real sector, and when you look at the data, you see a lot of the capital came in as Foreign Portfolio Investment, but not so much Foreign Direct Investment,” Ayemibo said.

He noted that foreign direct investment into the sector remained relatively weak but expressed optimism that recent reforms had restored investor confidence.

“Based on available data, FDI, which is the major contributor to the trade sector you are looking at, is low. It has not been very good,” he said.

Ayemibo, however, attributed the recent uptick in inflows to exchange rate stability and the clearance of foreign exchange backlogs by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“I am not surprised that we are seeing an increase because confidence has returned, basically. The rate is a lot more stable, there is more liquidity in the market, and the CBN has been able to clear the backlog,” he said.

He projected that Nigeria’s improved external reserves position could further sustain inflows, despite global uncertainties.

“I do not think the war will be of serious impact on us, FDI-wise, mainly because historically, our FDI has not been coming from the Middle East,” Ayemibo noted.

The NBS report showed that portfolio investment dominated capital importation in the fourth quarter of 2025, accounting for 85.14 per cent of total inflows, while foreign direct investment contributed 5.55 per cent.

Sectoral analysis indicated that while the banking and financing sectors attracted the bulk of inflows, the trading sector’s steady rise signals renewed confidence in Nigeria’s consumer market.