Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 3.13 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2025. This is according to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday.
The growth rate represents a rebound from the 2.27 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, indicating a gradual strengthening of economic activity across major sectors.
The Organised Private Sector and economists welcomed the development, and expressed hope that it would be sustained. In nominal terms, the value of the nation’s economic output stood at N94.05tn in Q1 2025, compared to N79.51tn recorded in the same period last year, reflecting an increase of 18.30 per cent.
“Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.13 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 2.27 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2024,” the report stated.
The first quarter figures were published on the back of the national accounts rebasing exercise, which updated Nigeria’s GDP framework to 2019 as the new base year, replacing the previous 2010 base. According to the statistics agency, the rebasing aligns Nigeria’s economic reporting with international best practices and better reflects changes in the economy’s structure.
The services sector retained its dominance in the GDP composition, growing by 4.33 per cent year-on-year and contributing 57.50 per cent to real GDP. Telecommunications and Information Services expanded by 7.40 per cent in real terms and accounted for 10.59 per cent of total output, up from 10.17 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
Financial and insurance activities also recorded strong growth of 15.03 per cent, supported by digital adoption and improved operational performance across banks and fintech companies.
Trade, real estate, and transportation all delivered positive results. While trade rose by 1.78 per cent and accounted for 18.21 per cent of GDP, real estate expanded by 4.61 per cent.
Transportation and storage surged by 14.08 per cent, with all sub-sectors—road, rail, air, water, and pipeline transport—posting real growth.
In the industry sector, GDP grew by 3.42 per cent compared to 2.35 per cent in the same quarter of 2024. Oil production increased to an average of 1.62 million barrels per day from 1.57 million barrels per day in Q1 2024.
However, this did not translate into stronger output, as the oil sector’s real growth moderated to 1.87 per cent, down from 4.71 per cent a year earlier. Its contribution to GDP declined slightly to 3.97 per cent.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector posted real growth of 1.69 per cent, with major drivers being the food, beverage and tobacco sub-sector at 3.48 per cent, chemical and pharmaceutical products at 5.33 per cent, and cement at 4.94 per cent.
Manufacturing’s share of real GDP stood at 9.62 per cent. The construction sector maintained a strong growth trajectory, expanding by 6.21 per cent, supported by increased investment in infrastructure and private real estate development.
Growth in agriculture remained subdued, with the sector recording a marginal 0.07 per cent increase in real terms, though it marked a recovery from the 1.79 per cent contraction reported in Q1 2024.
In nominal terms, agriculture contributed 19.40 per cent to GDP, down from 20.86 per cent in the same period last year. Crop production, the mainstay of the sector, grew by 3.71 per cent in real terms, while other components such as livestock, forestry, and fishing posted mixed results.
Insecurity in key farming regions and limited mechanisation continued to hinder broader sectoral gains. Some relatively smaller sectors posted strong performances during the quarter. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply grew by 18.65 per cent, a sharp rise from 2.49 per cent in Q1 2024.
Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities rose by 9.43 per cent, while the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector expanded by 9.63 per cent. The accommodation and food services sector grew by 2.65 per cent. Conversely, the report showed that other services contracted by 6.13 per cent.
Public administration grew modestly by 1.83 per cent, while professional, scientific, and technical services slowed to 2.53 per cent from 5.71 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024.
The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, has said the just-concluded rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP represents the most comprehensive and inclusive national accounting exercise ever undertaken by the NBS.
Speaking during the official release of the rebased GDP figures in Abuja, the Statistician-General explained that the new estimates, anchored on the 2019 base year, were built on updated methodologies and a significantly expanded data pool that more accurately reflect Nigeria’s evolving economy.
He added that rebasing is not peculiar to Nigeria, but a global statistical best practice often carried out every five to ten years. According to him, the rebasing was not influenced by any government agenda but was purely a technical exercise undertaken by the NBS as part of its statutory responsibilities.
The Statistician-General stated that although the exercise started in 2018/2019, it took several years due to the rigour and depth of data gathering involved, and he commended both past and present NBS staff for their resilience and professionalism.
He said this round of rebasing included previously missing components such as the Business Sample Census and the Agricultural Sample Census. The effort also incorporated other key surveys like the Nigerian Living Standards Survey, the National Agricultural Sample Survey, the Annual Business Establishment Survey, and the Revised Labour Force Survey.
Adeniran highlighted how these datasets enabled improved coverage of various sectors, including digital economy activities, water transportation, modular refineries, informal sector operations, social insurance funds, and even domestic households that employ labour.
These expanded inputs, he noted, allowed the Bureau to correct previous misclassifications—such as administrative and support services that were formerly grouped under “Other Services”—and apply advanced methodological tools like Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured.
He acknowledged, however, that challenges remain. Chief among them is the difficulty in obtaining reliable and timely data, particularly from formal establishments and MDAs with poor record-keeping cultures and reluctance to share information.
He urged all stakeholders to prioritise proper data submission to enable better representation of economic activity in the future. The rebased figures show that in nominal terms, GDP in the new base year 2019 stood at N205.09tn, up 41.1 per cent from previous estimates.
By 2024, total output had risen to N372.82tn. Real GDP growth was recorded at 4.32 per cent in 2022, 3.04 per cent in 2023, and 3.38 per cent in 2024. Notably, crop production, trade, and real estate ranked as the top three economic activities in 2019 under the new classification, with real estate displacing crude petroleum and natural gas due to improved coverage of the informal sector.
Adeniran disclosed that the services sector retained its dominance, contributing 53.09 per cent to GDP in 2019, followed by agriculture at 25.83 per cent and industry at 21.08 per cent. He also stated that the informal sector accounted for 42.5 per cent of GDP, valued at N86.85tn in 2019, compared to N39tn in the previous estimate from 2015.
An economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, has said the rebased GDP figures offer a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s economic structure and size.
“We now have a clearer picture of the economy, and it is evidently larger than what we had previously estimated, though not as large as some analysts had projected,” Yusuf said. He explained that the new data reveal important structural shifts, particularly the growing prominence of the real estate sector.
“For instance, we’ve seen a much bigger role of real estate in the economy,” he noted, pointing out that real estate has now displaced crude oil as one of the top three contributors to Nigeria’s GDP. He described the release of the rebased figures as “refreshing,” and added that Nigeria’s global GDP ranking is likely to improve as a result of the updated estimates.
Lagos-based economist, Mr Adewale Abimbola, reacting to the NBS report, noted that it was a positive sign that Nigeria’s economy had maintained a growth trajectory through 2024, marking four consecutive years of expansion.
While attributing the trend partly to the early outcomes of the government’s reform agenda, Abimbola described the growth rate as marginal and stressed the need for policymakers to go beyond headline growth.
A development economist, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said that the growth rate is encouraging, showing improvement in some sectors of the economy. However, he argued that government reforms are yet to have a positive impact, urging the federal government to strengthen the private sector for bigger output.
OPS reacts
The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, has described the reported 3.13 per cent GDP growth in Q1 2025 as a welcome development and a positive signal for the Nigerian economy. According to Egbesola, the growth suggests that the economy is gradually finding its footing, despite lingering macroeconomic pressures.
However, Egbesola noted that the growth must begin to translate into tangible ease of doing business, access to credit, reduced energy costs, and a more stable operating environment for small businesses and households.
“We at ASBON hope this momentum is sustained and complemented with deliberate policy interventions that promote inclusive growth, particularly targeted at empowering nano, micro, and small enterprises, which are the true engines of job creation and economic resilience in Nigeria,” he said.
Overall, experts believe that while the GDP growth is a positive development, more needs to be done to address the challenges facing the economy, particularly for small businesses and households.
