Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production has fallen again below the quota allocated by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Oil production figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the country’s crude production fell to approximately 1.47 million barrels per day in February, down from 1.54mbpd in January.

Nigeria’s OPEC quota is 1.5 million barrels per day. The drop in February indicates that Nigeria lost an average of 70,000 barrels of crude oil daily, representing a loss of about 2.1 million litres in one month.

In January, Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota by over 30,000 barrels, receiving accolades from industry stakeholders, who said the Federal Government and other agencies were serious about the ambitious 2.06mbpd oil production target.

However, this achievement has been eroded with the latest data from the NUPRC, which shows that the country lost about 70,000 barrels daily between January and February.

Similarly, oil production (crude and condensate) dropped from 1.78mbpd in January to 1.67mbpd in February.

The NUPRC remarked, “Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million bopd and 1.76 million bopd respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensate (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria failed to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. But the government started the new year on a good note, with production surging from 1.4mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5mbpd in the first month of 2025.

Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, among other factors, were said to have prevented the country from meeting various OPEC oil production quotas over the years.

But the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed confidence that Nigeria could hit 3mbpd this year. He insisted that Nigeria would ramp up production by following the ’Drill, baby drill’ slogan of the United States President, Donald Trump.

Lokpobiri said the 3mbpd oil would include crude and condensates, adding that the country would raise production without having issues with OPEC.

Following the rise in crude output in January, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, said Nigeria should be producing up to four million barrels of oil per day, considering its hydrocarbon reserves.

The energy stakeholder disclosed that those in OPEC believe Nigeria can do more than its current 1.5mbpd quota. According to him, the country only needs to demonstrate the capacity to raise its OPEC quota.

He said raising oil production to 1.7mbpd in January was a good demonstration.

“I think the important thing we should understand is that with Nigeria’s reserves and resources, it doesn’t have any business being below two million barrels a day. Nigeria should be doing two and a half, three, or four million barrels a day with its resource base. And I believe we can do it. And I do believe that even those in OPEC and around the world believe that, but we have to demonstrate that we can actually produce that.

“What happened in January is a major demonstration. The country demonstrated that it can deliver above 1.5mbpd. I think that’s the beginning of giving confidence that we can get more quotas,” he stated.

Meanwhile, the latest figure from the regulator seems like there is a setback in February. Recall that the 2025 budget targets 2.06mbpd, and unless this is achieved, the country may not achieve its targeted oil revenue.

The drop in crude oil production may also be a threat to local refineries as they may be faced with feedstock shortages.