The manufacturing sector generated N9.16tn in nominal terms in the third quarter of 2025. It grew at 1.25 per cent, which the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria described as sluggish, warning that the country’s 3.98 per cent Gross Domestic Product growth does not signal a robust advancement without a corresponding rise in industrial output.
GDP data for the third quarter of 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, show that manufacturing’s nominal contribution rose by 3.45 per cent from the N8.85tn recorded in Q3 2024. The manufacturing sector’s 13 subsectors/activities include food and beverages, cement, basic metals, plastics, textiles, and oil refining, among others.
In an interview with The PUNCH, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the Q3 2025 headline GDP growth “does not reflect transformative expansion,” arguing that manufacturing remained too weak to anchor real economic progress.
Ajayi-Kadir said, “An aggregate growth of 3.98 per cent is not transformative. Manufacturing, which is intended to be the engine that drives mass employment and inclusive prosperity, remains largely sluggish. The sector grew by only 1.25 per cent in Q3 2025 from 0.76 per cent in Q3 2024. Growth without productive capacity is sub-optimal and lacks inclusivity.”
Meanwhile, a quarter-on-quarter comparison showed that the sector’s real growth declined by 0.35 percentage points from 1.60 per cent in Q2 2025. Ajayi-Kadir added, “Any GDP growth without a corresponding elevation in manufacturing output does not portend a robust advancement, in my view.”
The NBS figures indicate that eight manufacturing activities improved year-on-year, while five declined in their real growth rate. The subsectors that posted declines included Wood and Wood Products (1.64 per cent), Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products (3.75 per cent), Non-Metallic Products (1.51 per cent), Electrical and Electronics (1.17 per cent), and Other Manufacturing (1.45 per cent).
Among the eight improved subsectors, the NBS reported that Textile, Apparel and Footwear, and Pulp, Paper and Paper Products showed signs of recovery but remained in recession, contracting by 2.41 per cent and 1.07 per cent, respectively.
Food, Beverage, and Tobacco remained the biggest contributor, generating N3.08tn, while oil refining was the lowest in nominal contribution at N2.69bn, despite recording the highest real GDP growth rate of 19.42 per cent in Q3.
MAN’s DG Ajayi-Kadir linked the sector’s fragility to “persistent structural pressures,” including prohibitive energy costs, limited access to foreign exchange, and crippling interest rates.
Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturers “continue to bear the brunt of unreliable power supply,” noting that the cost of alternative energy “surged by 67 per cent from N404.8bn in H2 2024 to N676.5bn in H1 2025.”
He stressed that foreign exchange liquidity remained inadequate, saying members accessed “only 51 per cent” of their forex needs from the official window, while borrowing at 37 per cent interest rates was “effectively a limiting factor for many SMEs.”
Ajayi-Kadir urged the Federal Government to take urgent steps to reposition the industry. He said, “We need a gradual and deliberate reduction in interest rates; swift disbursement of the N1tn Industrialisation Stabilisation Fund; and strict enforcement of the Nigeria-First Policy to strengthen local content and protect strategic industries.”
He argued that Nigeria “cannot build a resilient, competitive and job-creating economy while its manufacturing base struggles for survival,” insisting that “manufacturing must be prioritised, protected and deliberately powered to lead Nigeria’s economic transformation.”
The MAN DG acknowledged that sectors such as solid minerals and oil delivered the greatest improvements year-on-year. He listed Quarrying & Other Minerals (39.49 per cent), Coal Mining (57.96 per cent), Oil Refining (19.42 per cent), Metal Ore (59.11 per cent), and Financial Institutions (19.46 per cent) as the biggest contributors to the GDP rebound.
Ajayi-Kadir said these gains were partly driven by “the historic earmarking of an extra N1tn for the solid minerals sector, reforms in transparency and investment protection, and growing global demand for critical minerals.”
He also attributed oil-sector growth to “increased local refining by the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries, rising gas-processing capacity, and the rollout of CNG adoption.”
Stakeholders and private sector groups have lamented Nigeria’s weak industrialisation and poor manufacturing performance. The PUNCH earlier reported that the Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics, Dele Oye, and Chief Economist and Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr Paul Alaje, warned that Nigeria faced bottlenecks to industrial growth, such as costly electricity, poor infrastructure, and hostile policies, which stakeholders must actively challenge.
Commenting in his policy brief on the GDP figures, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described manufacturing as “still fragile and under pressure.”
Yusuf said, “Manufacturing expanded by 1.25 per cent, one of the weakest performances across major sectors. High energy and logistics costs, costly borrowing conditions, dependence on imported inputs, and smuggling continue to erode competitiveness.”
He noted that while the economy showed signs of recovery, “achieving higher, more inclusive and sustainable growth will require tackling long-standing structural constraints, especially in agriculture, manufacturing and trade.”
