Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell by more than 20 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, new data from a report by the United States Census Bureau has shown.

The decline comes as total US imports from Nigeria stood at $1.118bn in Q1 2025, down from $1.401bn in the same period in 2024.

The trade data, published in the March edition of the US International Trade in Goods and Services report, revealed that the US imported $475m worth of goods from Nigeria in March 2025, a marginal increase from the $449m recorded in March 2024.

However, sharp declines in January and February erased the gains. In February 2025, US imports from Nigeria dropped to $286m from $424m the year before.

Based on year-to-date calculations, the total value of imports fell by $283m, representing a 20.2 per cent contraction year-on-year.

The fall in export value from Nigeria to the US was largely influenced by fluctuations in crude oil shipments, which account for the majority of Nigeria’s exports.

Data from the same report showed that the US imported 3.17 million barrels of crude oil from Nigeria in March 2025, a rise from 1.80 million barrels in February.

However, total volumes in Q1 2025 stood at 8.43 million barrels, and the customs value of these imports was $663.8m in the first quarter.

In March alone, Nigeria’s crude exports to the US were valued at $250.2m (customs basis) or $257m (CIF basis), with the CIF value covering cost, insurance, and freight.

The month-on-month increase in volumes and value signals some short-term recovery in March, but not enough to lift the quarterly total above last year’s level.

On the other hand, Nigeria imported more goods from the United States during the period under review, with total US exports to Nigeria rising from $1.205bn in Q1 2024 to $1.418bn in Q1 2025.

This resulted in a $300m trade surplus in favour of the US, compared to a $195m surplus for Nigeria in the same period last year.

One of the notable components of US exports to Nigeria was motor vehicles and parts. In March 2025 alone, the US exported $99m worth of vehicles and parts to Nigeria, comprising $73m in passenger cars, $7m in trucks, buses and special purpose vehicles, and $20m in parts.

Year-to-date, US vehicle exports to Nigeria reached $231m, with passenger cars accounting for $169m, trucks and special vehicles $15m, and parts $47m.

The widening trade deficit and declining oil export earnings reflect Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil market dynamics.

While the uptick in oil shipments in March offers a temporary reprieve, the broader trend points to the need for Nigeria to accelerate its non-oil export drive.

With global energy demand shifting and major economies advancing towards cleaner alternatives, Nigeria faces increasing pressure to diversify its export base beyond crude oil.

The March 2025 trade report, released jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also showed that the overall US trade deficit rose to $140.5bn, driven by increased imports of consumer and capital goods.

However, the US imports of crude oil, particularly from countries like Nigeria, remain under pressure due to changes in domestic energy production and shifting geopolitical alignments.

In April 2025, former United States President Donald Trump reintroduced a 14 per cent reciprocal tariff on Nigerian exports, citing Nigeria’s continued import restrictions on 25 product categories, including agricultural produce, pharmaceuticals, and consumer items.

The measure, part of Trump’s broader “America First” trade stance, was aimed at countering what the US described as discriminatory barriers against American goods.

The tariff threatened Nigeria’s fragile export earnings, particularly its non-oil products, which have been struggling to gain a foothold in the US market.

According to the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, more than 90 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to the US are crude oil and related petroleum products.

However, the remaining share—comprising agricultural commodities, fertilisers like urea, and manufactured goods—stood to suffer under the weight of the tariff, further weakening Nigeria’s non-oil export diversification agenda.

The Central Bank of Nigeria was forced to intervene in the foreign exchange market shortly after the tariffs were announced, selling nearly $200m in a bid to stem pressure on the naira.

With Nigeria already grappling with reduced oil receipts, the tariff shock risked compounding the trade deficit and worsening dollar liquidity.

Amid mounting diplomatic and economic pressure, the Trump administration later suspended the tariffs for a 90-day period to allow for dialogue and renegotiation with affected countries, including Nigeria.

The temporary relief offered Nigeria a window to address the trade tensions and seek a negotiated settlement.