I ndication at the weekend was that Nigeria’s crude oil production continued its downward trend in October, checks on the monthly report by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) shows.
The October average daily production is the lowest in seven months. Nigeria’s crude oil output has been falling steadily since the 1.42 million barrels per day recorded in June.
According to the reviewed document, average daily production in October stood at 1.30 million barrels per day — a decline from the 1.38 million barrels recorded in September and the 1.37 million barrels posted in August. The average for July was 1.40 million barrels per day, while June recorded 1.42 million barrels per day on average.
In May, the country produced 1.35 million barrels per day on average, the same figure recorded in April. Only in March did Nigeria produce 1.29 million barrels per day — a figure lower than that recorded in October 2025.
In February, daily crude oil output averaged 1.35 million barrels, while January recorded 1.39 million barrels. Sunday Telegraph reports that despite these figures, Nigeria has not met its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, based on the NNPCL data reviewed for this report.
Crude oil production has remained constrained by several factors, including sabotage, pipeline vandalism, and poor management of the oil sector. These challenges continue to hinder the country from meeting its production targets despite its capacity to produce more.
Industry experts have urged the government to intensify efforts to address these issues, warning that persistent production shortfalls could undermine Nigeria’s revenue generation and economic growth. Reports earlier disclosed that Nigeria has also struggled to meet local refinery demand for crude oil.
This comes as the Federal Government disclosed that a total of 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners for processing between January and August 2025. The figure, confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), underscores the ongoing challenges in closing the crude allocation gap facing domestic refineries despite the country’s rising production levels.
Speaking in Abuja, the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at the NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the crude allocation was made in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation policy.
“A total of 67,657,559 barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August this year. All refiners got that amount within the eight-month period,” Akinkuotu stated. According to a document published by the NUPRC, an estimated 123.4 million barrels were projected to be required by local refineries between January and June.
The daily requirement was placed at 770,500 barrels, while the monthly need was forecast at 23.8 million barrels. With 67.7 million barrels supplied to domestic refineries between January and August, it means over 55.8 million barrels required for local consumption (based on NUPRC’s January–June estimates) were not provided.
This indicates that the Nigerian government was unable to supply at least 45 per cent of the crude oil required domestically. It was previously reported that Nigeria’s foreign trade statistics for the first and second quarters of 2025 showed that the country imported fuel worth N4.13 trillion between January and June 2025.
