Olufemi Aduwo is the Permanent Representative of the Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity (CCDI) to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). In this interview, he shares his insight on a range of pressing national issues, particularly Nigeria’s security challenges, including the ongoing insurgency and rising incidence of banditry, among other issues, ANAYO EZUGWU writes
What inspired your organisation to host a session on Nigeria’s security challenges at this year’s World Bank/IMF spring meeting?
Our impetus stemmed from the imperative to recalibrate international perceptions concerning Nigeria’s internal security landscape. For too long, a skewed narrative, often resulting from misinformation or deliberate distortion, has dominated discourse abroad.
This session was intended to inject realism into the conversation, presenting frontline intelligence insights while encouraging development partners to engage devoid of political bias.
We were able to achieve that with the personalities who attended the session, including members of Amnesty International, the International Crisis Group, UN Watch, the International Federation for Human Rights, and Human Rights Watch.
With more than 1,360 guests in attendance from 67 countries across all professions, I’m sure you would agree that it was a successful outing. Although our military grapples with systemic underfunding and logistical constraints, it has achieved commendable tactical victories that remain largely unacknowledged. Irregular warfare inherently involves surprises, yet our forces have shown remarkable resilience.
The session succeeded in correcting the misconceptions and underlining the Nigerian armed forces’ operational effectiveness. We are no strangers to such endeavours. In 2024, we partnered with Washington University to examine Nigeria’s energy sector.
The session was attended by the United States Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Hon. Wally Adeyemo. We also convened a side event during the 2023 Marrakesh Morocco Annual Meetings. Our unwavering commitment remains the attraction of investment in Nigeria.
In your opening remarks, you stated that Nigeria’s security situation is often misrepresented. Could you elaborate?
Nigeria is ensnared in a complex asymmetrical conflict ecosystem, comprising insurgency, terrorism, banditry and transnational organised crime. These are not conventional threats, yet global assessments continue to rely on linear, outdated frameworks.
Politically motivated commentators frequently depict the armed forces as ineffectual or complicit, a portrayal that severely undermines the military efforts. The true crisis lies in the abdication of governance.
In locales where the state has effectively receded, militants step in to fill the vacuum, enforcing their laws, levying taxes and asserting a parallel order, particularly in parts of the North-East.
While many are aware that Bakassi was ceded to Cameroon, fewer realise that Nigeria also regained territory, villages and towns previously administered by Cameroon, now under Nigerian jurisdiction.
Some of these areas are bereft of government presence and have become strongholds for insurgents, capitalising on ungoverned spaces for recruitment and operations. Military intervention alone will not suffice. We are, in truth, a nation at war.
What is urgently required is a comprehensive strategy encompassing intelligence-led policing, robust community engagement and extensive de-radicalisation initiatives. Socioeconomic reforms and youth empowerment initiatives, including free secondary and technical education, particularly in Northern Nigeria, are paramount in dismantling the pipeline feeding extremism.
You have criticised calls for the removal of military chiefs. Could you clarify your stance?
There exists a fundamental conflation between military and broader security leadership. The Chief of Defence Staff, along with the Chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, constitute the military high command.
In contrast, the Inspector General of Police and heads of intelligence agencies such as the DSS, NIA and DIA oversee internal security and counter-intelligence. Calls for the dismissal of military chiefs are not only ill-conceived but also strategically injurious. These officers are consummate professionals with extensive field and command experience.
What is required is not scapegoating but empowerment through modern equipment, real-time intelligence and unequivocal political backing.
Security is a shared responsibility of all. During President Yar’Adua, Vice President Jonathan went to the creeks and negotiated with the Niger Delta militants. That singular action demonstrated creative political engagement that eventually yielded peace.
Nigeria is ensnared in a complex asymmetrical conflict ecosystem, comprising insurgency, terrorism, banditry and transnational organised crime
We must accept that this is irregular warfare. The United States’ experience in Afghanistan underscores the futility of relying solely on force. A credible apolitical “Carrot Committee” could explore dialogue much like the Red Cross facilitated the Chibok girls’ release.
There is increasing concern that the Nigerian military lacks modern equipment and suffers from inadequate investment in intelligence. Do you share this concern?
The troops confront adversaries with sophisticated weaponry and communication systems, while many of our military assets remain antiquated.
This disparity is not merely operationally unsound, it is ethically indefensible. The government must urgently reprioritise defence spending. Intelligence must anchor our security doctrine.
‘ History is replete with examples of catastrophic intelligence failures. Approximately 80 per cent of successful counterinsurgency operations hinge on actionable intelligence and not sheer force. We dishonour the sacrifices of our military personnel when we fail to furnish them with the tools requisite for pre-emption, disruption and victory.
While I commend President Tinubu for issuing a decisive directive as Commander-in-Chief, calling for an immediate and comprehensive overhaul of our national security strategies and demanding urgent measures to quell the escalating violence in Borno, Benue, Plateau, and Kwara States, I must, with all due respect, pose a pertinent question to Mr President: Have the security chiefs clearly explained to Your Excellency the fundamental distinction between asymmetrical and conventional warfare.
I sincerely hope they have. What Nigeria currently confronts is not a traditional war fought on conventional fronts, but rather an asymmetrical conflict, characterised by irregular tactics, decentralised combatants and elusive targets. It is therefore imperative to understand that such a war cannot be decisively won through kinetic force alone.
The ‘carrot’, that is, the strategic offer of amnesty, dialogue and economic reintegration, must be judiciously dangled before insurgents and militants where appropriate.
However, this must be complemented by the ‘stick’: a robust and well-resourced military, equipped with superior intelligence-gathering capabilities, cutting-edge technology and the moral clarity to distinguish combatants from civilians.
Absent a sophisticated security architecture anchored in actionable intelligence and modern operational capacity, any “urgent action” risks being a mere rhetorical flourish, an exercise in futility rather than a path to sustainable peace.
Do you believe foreign development partners are doing enough to support Nigeria in combating insecurity? The scale of insecurity across the continent is sobering.
In 2024 Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 59 percent of global terrorism related fatalities, with the Sahel particularly Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso bearing the brunt. The resulting displacement crisis affects over 45 million individuals. Nigeria needs more than rhetoric.
What is required is targeted technological support and collaborative mechanisms to curb arms trafficking. The relationship between security and development is indivisible. Without peace, economic growth is a mirage. A stable Nigeria is not only pivotal to West African cohesion but also vital to the integrity of ECOWAS.
As a World Bank official stated during the session, Nigeria’s peace translates into regional stability. A document in this regard was submitted to Mr. Ajay, World Bank.
Some analysts argue that the Nigerian Armed Forces are overstretched. What’s your view?
The Nigerian military is indeed operating at unsustainable levels. It is simultaneously engaged in combating Boko Haram in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, secessionist agitations in the SouthEast, oil theft in the Niger Delta and piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.
Exacerbating this is the fact that military personnel are frequently tasked with internal security duties that rightly fall within the remit of the police and other civil agencies.
This misallocation depletes morale, induces fatigue and hampers strategic efficacy. We must recalibrate our national security framework, strengthening the Nigeria Police Force to handle internal crises, thereby allowing the military to concentrate on high-intensity operations.
You raised concerns about the politicisation of security and military issues. Could you expound on that?
Security must always transcend partisanship. Regrettably, opportunistic political actors continue to weaponise national security issues for electoral gain, often vilifying the military for short-term advantage.
This undermines public confidence and inadvertently emboldens insurgents. During President Jonathan’s administration, we witnessed the opposition deploy disinformation to discredit military operations, an act that weakened national cohesion.
This trend must cease. Security appointments must be determined by merit, not by political patronage or sectarian considerations. I have heard some advocate for religious balancing in military leadership. Such propositions are utterly preposterous. Consider President Shehu Shagari’s example.
He appointed military chiefs and the Inspector General of Police not only from opposition-controlled states, but they were all Christians. That is statesmanship, a commitment to competence over politics. President Tinubu’s appointments so far within these sectors are in order.
Should Nigeria pursue a military pact with the Sahel countries that withdrew from ECOWAS to combat insurgency?
Nigeria must adopt a pragmatic stance and forge strategic alliances with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso despite their ECOWAS exit. The threats we face, including terrorism, arms trafficking and extremism, are transnational by nature.
No country in Sub-Saharan Africa can confront them alone. Guests from those countries who attended the session agreed to take it upon themselves when they return to encourage their governments in this direction.
These Sahelian states form our northern buffer. Instability in their territories invariably destabilises Nigeria’s North-East and North-West.
A focused military pact centred on counter-insurgency cooperation and intelligence sharing would bolster border security, degrade terrorist logistics and reassert Nigeria’s regional leadership.
