Nigeria may be sitting on between $1tn and $1.5tn in stranded and underutilised capital, according to the Foundation for Peace Professionals, which says the estimate represents one of the largest pools of dormant economic value in Africa.
In a statement obtained by The PUNCH on Saturday, PeacePro Executive Director, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, said research reviewed by the organisation indicates that up to $900bn is locked in “dead capital” tied to residential real estate and agricultural land.
At the same time, tens of thousands of abandoned public buildings owned by federal, state and local governments are valued at about N9.5tn.
Industry assessments also suggest that more than 56,000 abandoned projects across sectors, including roads, housing estates and public facilities, are worth between N12tn and N17tn, excluding billions of naira invested in incomplete power infrastructure.
Hamzat described the situation as a “silent economic emergency,” noting that the upper estimate of $1.5tn is more than five times Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product of about $285bn.
“Nigeria is not a poor country. Nigeria is a poorly activated economy,” he said. “The issue is not the absence of capital, but immobilised capital.”
For context, Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit has been estimated by various government reports at over $2tn over a 30-year horizon. Yet analysts say the paradox lies in the coexistence of infrastructure gaps and idle assets, incomplete highways, underutilised power plants, moribund industrial clusters, and unoccupied housing estates.
Comparatively, South Africa has leveraged asset recycling and concession models to revitalise ports and logistics infrastructure through structured public–private partnerships, while Egypt has aggressively deployed PPP frameworks and state-backed infrastructure funds to accelerate the completion and monetisation of transport and energy assets.
Nigeria’s Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission has recorded dozens of PPP projects, but implementation has remained uneven. PeacePro said stranded capital cuts across energy infrastructure, transportation assets, housing and real estate, and manufacturing facilities.
Nigeria’s installed electricity generation capacity exceeds 13,000 megawatts, but average transmission and distribution constraints often limit actual delivered power to significantly lower levels, leaving substantial investments underutilised.
Thousands of kilometres of partially completed roads continue to increase haulage costs in an economy heavily dependent on road transport, while large-scale housing projects remain vacant due to weak mortgage penetration and persistent land documentation bottlenecks.
“These are not hypothetical losses; they are capital already paid for but not producing value,” Hamzat said.
Governance gaps
Nigeria’s rising public debt, which has crossed ₦100tn in recent data, has intensified calls for asset optimisation rather than fresh borrowing. PeacePro attributed the growth of stranded capital to politicised project selection, weak feasibility studies, project abandonment after leadership transitions, regulatory bottlenecks, and poor maintenance culture.
Economic analysts note that abandoned projects also create fiscal drag, as governments continue to service debt on infrastructure that yields no immediate economic return.
Hamzat warned that beyond macroeconomic implications, idle infrastructure deepens inequality and fuels instability. “When infrastructure stands idle, frustration grows. When assets generate value, stability increases,” he said.
The organisation called for a national asset activation strategy anchored on a comprehensive audit of dormant projects, conversion of viable assets into structured PPP arrangements, creation of a transparent national asset registry, and land reform to unlock real estate value.
It also recommended legislative safeguards against politically motivated project abandonment and dedicated maintenance frameworks to prevent asset deterioration.
With Nigeria seeking to boost non-oil growth, stabilise the naira and expand domestic production capacity, analysts say unlocking even 30 to 40 per cent of dormant assets could generate significant economic stimulus without additional borrowing. “Nigeria does not need to borrow its way to prosperity while trillions in value lie unused,” Hamzat said.
As Africa’s largest economy grapples with slow growth and infrastructure bottlenecks, the debate over stranded capital underscores a deeper policy question: whether reform will prioritise new projects or finally activate the wealth already embedded in concrete, steel, and land across the country.
