Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N6.69tn in the third quarter of 2025, at a 27.29 per cent growth rate, continuing a trend of trade surpluses. Stakeholders attribute the consistent positive performance to the economic reforms in the foreign exchange market.

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics on foreign trade in goods showed that total exports in Q3 2025 stood at N22.81tn, while imports amounted to N16.12tn, resulting in a surplus of N6.69tn.

The figure represents a 27.29 per cent year-on-year rise, compared to the N5.26tn surplus recorded in Q3 2024. However, it reflects a 10.36 per cent decline from the N7.46tn surplus posted in Q2 2025.

Economists and private-sector groups explained to The PUNCH that the Q3 2025 foreign trade figures showed that reforms in the FX market, trade liberalisation, and currency adjustments have boosted export competitiveness and encouraged backward integration.

Stakeholders, including the Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, stated that the reforms had significantly strengthened Nigeria’s export position.

Yusuf said, “The current economic reforms have resulted in a situation where export performance has been increasing because of the reform in the foreign exchange market, the liberalisation of the market, the ease with which export proceeds can come in, and the fact that the depreciation in the currency has made our export sector more attractive and more competitive.”

He added that the policy environment had also slowed imports. “Once you experience depreciation, imports become more expensive and less attractive. People will now import only if they don’t have a choice. Local products, especially those with high local content, are generally more competitive,” he stated.

Yusuf explained that the FX reforms had pushed firms into backward integration, saying, “We are seeing more backward integration now than before because it is cheaper to use local resources than to bring in resources from outside the country.”

Although some short-term shocks, including insecurity, logistics challenges and the recent 30 per cent local value-addition policy for shea exports, had affected certain sectors, he stressed that Nigeria remained on course. “Our balance of trade and balance of payment situation has improved as a result of the reform,” the CPPE chief stressed.

The PUNCH had reported the Former President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, stating that the country’s export growth trends aligned with the expectations of the market.

He noted that non-oil exports should continue to expand, citing growing investment in processing and value addition. According to him, “the various efforts by individuals and companies should see a steady growth in non-oil exports.”

Idahosa said the fall in crude exports was expected due to increased domestic refining. “Since the government has resumed the Naira for crude to all refineries, we expect exports of crude to reduce,” he said, adding that this only underscored the need to deepen non-oil export growth.

He explained that currency reforms were already yielding the intended effect. “The whole idea of unifying the exchange rate is that we should be gaining from exports since the value of the Naira has come down. Most countries tactically devalue their currency to promote exports,” he said.

Idahosa stressed that Nigeria must remain an export-led economy. “Any strong economy in the world must be a significant exporter of goods and services. That is the only way to keep the currency strong,” the former LCCI president added.

The NBS data further showed that agricultural imports rose to N1.10tn, a 25.03 per cent increase from Q3 2024 but a 6.87 per cent drop from Q2 2025. Raw material imports surged 27.70 per cent year-on-year to N2.02tn, while manufactured goods imports stood at N7.77tn.

On the export side, crude oil remained dominant at N12.81tn, followed by other petroleum gases and manufactured products. Agricultural exports fell 11.69 per cent year-on-year to N786.62bn, while raw material exports jumped 136.38 per cent to N1.04tn.

Nigeria’s top five export destinations in Q3 2025 were India, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Italy. Stakeholders noted that despite some sectoral declines, recent figures showed that Nigeria’s trade structure was shifting in line with policy goals.

Yusuf called for policy stability to sustain gains, saying, “Consistency in policy is what guarantees continuity. The reform has come to stay.”