Nigeria’s crude oil output dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, defying government efforts to ramp up production.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, instead of rising to meet the 1.5 million barrels per day quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, representing 95 per cent of the OPEC quota.
The data show that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July.
A review of the average daily crude oil output indicates that Nigeria opened the year strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 bpd above its OPEC allocation.
Output, however, dipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March, when production averaged 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained under its OPEC ceiling until June, when crude production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, marginally exceeding the quota.
The country sustained this momentum in July, producing 1.51 mbpd, before slipping back below the threshold in the following months.
Production declined notably in the third quarter, averaging 1.43 mbpd in August and falling to a yearly low of 1.39 mbpd in September, leaving a deficit of more than 110,000 barrels per day against the OPEC target.
The NUPRC data reveal that output remained subdued in the final quarter, with daily crude production standing at 1.40 mbpd in October, 1.436 mbpd in November, and 1.422 mbpd in December.
Overall, the data show that Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC crude oil quota for most of the year.
Meanwhile, combined crude and condensate production averaged 1.74 mbpd in January, 1.67 mbpd in February, and 1.60 mbpd in March. Total liquid production rose again mid-year, averaging 1.68 mbpd in April, 1.66 mbpd in May, 1.70 mbpd in June, and 1.71 mbpd in July, supported largely by steady condensate volumes.
As oil output declined in the third quarter, total production stood at 1.63 mbpd in August and 1.58 mbpd in September. In the final quarter, combined oil and condensate output stood at 1.597 mbpd in October, 1.599 mbpd in November, and 1.54 mbpd in December, underscoring the level of reduction toward the end of the year.
In its remarks on the December output, the NUPRC said, “The lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate were 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd, respectively.
“Daily average production was 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,421,960 bopd) and condensate (122,385 bopd). The average crude oil production represents 95 per cent of the OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”
The new Chief Executive of the commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has promised to increase oil production.
In a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, on Wednesday, the NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed, and sustainable operations.
According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030.
Eyesan said the commission would pursue production and revenue growth by recovering shut-in volumes with economic value, arresting natural field decline, reducing losses, and accelerating time-to-first oil, without imposing additional regulatory burdens or transaction costs on operators.
