Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to 1.31 million barrels per day in February, even as local refineries continue to grapple with inadequate domestic crude supply needed to sustain operations.
The development shows that Nigeria again failed to meet its crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as output declined sharply in February 2026.
Data from OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, based on direct communication from member countries, showed that Nigeria produced 1.314 million barrels per day in February, down from 1.459 mbpd recorded in January.
The figures indicate a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, widening the country’s shortfall from its OPEC production allocation.
Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC production quota is not only affecting its oil export earnings but also adversely impacting domestic refineries that are starved of feedstock for their operations.
Recall that The PUNCH exclusively reported on March 9, 2026, that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, had begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders, in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations.
“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, had told The PUNCH.
The official further explained, “As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to DRP, in the face of temporary availability constraints.”
The 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery had earlier highlighted constraints in domestic crude supply. It receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy, forcing reliance on imported crude purchased at international market rates.
“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria,” the refinery had stated.
The latest OPEC report showed that although Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in January when production rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd, the rebound was short-lived as output slipped significantly in February.
With the latest figures, Nigeria has continued its streak of failing to meet the 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota, a trend that has persisted since August 2025. This means Nigeria has failed to meet the OPEC report seven consecutive times despite efforts to ramp up production.
Earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had also shown that crude oil production weakened at the end of 2025 despite government efforts to boost output. Production declined from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, before recovering slightly in January.
In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.
However, production slipped below the quota in February at 1.47mbpd and weakened further in March to 1.40mbpd, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.
Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49mbpd) and May (1.45mbpd), Nigeria remained below its OPEC ceiling until June, when production edged up to 1.51mbpd, slightly exceeding the quota. The country sustained the momentum in July with 1.51 mbpd before falling below the benchmark again in subsequent months.
As 2026 progresses, there are expectations that Nigeria will ramp up crude production, especially following the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Refinery, which recently announced it had reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
January and February figures failed to match the expectations of the Federal Government in the 2026 budget.
Meanwhile, the new Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, once pledged to increase oil production.
In a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, Eyesan said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.
According to her, the agenda aligns with the Renewed Hope Agenda of Bola Tinubu and the administration’s plan to raise Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.
Eyesan added that the commission would pursue production growth by recovering shut-in volumes with economic value, arresting natural field decline, reducing losses, and accelerating time-to-first oil, without imposing additional regulatory burdens or transaction costs on operators.
