Nigeria is preparing to release its rebased Gross Domestic Product figures in 2025 for the first time in more than a decade, which analysts say could catalyse investment and improve its attractiveness to investors, development partners, and global financial markets.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced the plan in October 2024 and initially targeted the end of January 2025 for the release. However, reports in early February 2025 indicated that the agency had not yet published the rebased figures, suggesting a slight delay.
“This rebasing allows us to better reflect the realities of our economy,” the country’s Statistician-General, Adeyemi Adeniran, said during a workshop in Abuja on January 20, 2025. “It’s not just about a bigger number but about accurate, timely data that supports smarter policy and economic planning.”
Nigeria’s last GDP rebasing in 2014 saw the economy leap from about $270bn to $510bn, making it the largest economy in Africa at the time. That update revealed underreported sectors like telecommunications, film, and financial services, sparking global investor interest and driving foreign direct investment to nearly $60bn that year, up from $15bn in 2011.
The statistics agency revealed that incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating consumption baskets, and refining data collection methods are essential to producing a more complete picture of national output.
“Even within Africa, this will redefine our status. At the moment, we rank around sixth on the continent, but after the rebasing, we could move up to number two or even number one,” developmental economist Dr Aliyu Ilias told The PUNCH.
The analyst noted that several sectors have previously remained uncaptured in official data, particularly entertainment. “By rebasing our GDP now, we can include those areas properly. This new visibility will make Nigeria appear much stronger to foreign investors, which will naturally help us attract more capital.”
He explained that the exercise will also reveal untapped economic potential and guide government resource allocation. “It will show where we are strongest structurally, such as in mining or other emerging sectors. That insight will help the government focus its efforts more strategically.”
“Finally,” he added, “it will support economic policy formulation, helping us align our strategy with the reality on the ground. We will know exactly where to put more effort.”
A recent analysis by Proshare Nigeria suggests that rebasing could push the country’s GDP estimate closer to $490bn, reflecting the scale of previously unreported activities.
While this statistical adjustment does not instantly generate new revenue, it creates a more reliable framework for fiscal planning, investment strategies, and development interventions. By aligning economic data with current realities, the government and private sector can more effectively target policies that stimulate job creation, improve productivity, and sustain long-term growth.
Director of Civic Technology Group BudgIT, Seun Onigbinde, said the success of the rebasing effort depends on building public trust in the institutions responsible for its implementation.
He noted that the previous rebasing underscored the substantial impact of policy changes in the services and ICT sectors, such as telecommunications deregulation and banking sector recapitalisation. “Rebasing of the GDP must reflect changes in the economy, which are a product of public policies over time,” he added.
Also weighing in on the implications of the exercise, former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank, Marcel Okeke, noted that GDP rebasing is essential to bring unaccounted economic activities into view.
He said the rebasing would “capture other economic activities that may not have been reflected in the past,” particularly in Nigeria’s fast-evolving informal and service-based sectors.
Okeke emphasised the integrity of the process, stressing that there would be no manipulation of figures, as the methodologies used are internationally standardised.
“There will be no concoction of numbers from anywhere,” the economist told The PUNCH. “This process follows globally accepted assumptions and frameworks used by national statistics agencies and multilateral institutions around the world.”
However, he warned that while rebasing would give Nigeria a statistical advantage through a higher nominal GDP, it does not automatically resolve macroeconomic challenges.
“An increase in nominal GDP gives us leverage in improving debt-to-GDP ratios and investor perception, but the exchange rate remains a pressing concern,” he said. “At $1 to N1,500, the naira’s weakness continues to undermine real economic value and investor confidence.”
He called for complementary reforms to stabilise the currency and improve productivity, warning that the full benefits of a rebased GDP could be muted without addressing structural weaknesses.
Investor confidence
Global investors and development institutions are closely watching the rebasing process. A larger and more diversified economy improves debt-to-GDP ratios, enhances Nigeria’s creditworthiness, and helps attract funding for infrastructure and development.
Executive Vice President of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd., Udy Ntia, said during the CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global in Houston in March that “Nigeria has transformed into an investor’s haven. With the Petroleum Industry Act and robust regulatory reforms, we have already attracted $17bn in new investments.”
Foreign capital has historically responded to clarity and confidence. Nigeria’s economy shrank to $375bn in 2023 from $477bn in 2022, according to IMF estimates, but officials believe that figure understates the country’s true productive capacity.
IMF’s Nigeria Mission Chief, Axel Schimmelpfennig, told Reuters that the country’s reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of exchange rates, have created a more transparent environment for investors.
“When we talk to investors, they’re happy,” he said. “They can invest in Nigeria and know they can repatriate proceeds. It’s a big improvement.”
Policy benefits
Rebasing is also critical for domestic policy. It allows the government to better assess tax collection efficiency, measure sectoral contributions, and design social programmes that are data-driven and results-oriented.
Country Director for BudgIT, Gabriel Okeowo, said, “Budgeting without current data is like guessing in the dark. Rebasing allows planners to be more intentional about solving Nigeria’s biggest problems: poverty, infrastructure gaps, and job creation.”
Nigeria’s inflation currently hovers around 23 percent, and with oil prices below budgeted benchmarks, officials are banking on the rebasing to reframe the country’s fiscal outlook and provide a more accurate debt sustainability analysis.
According to the Federal Ministry of Finance, the rebasing will support “more precise fiscal and monetary policy, improve global comparability, and build investor confidence.”
Cautious optimism
Despite the anticipated bump in GDP size, economists warn that rebasing is not a silver bullet. Columnist for Premium Times, Zainab Suleiman Okino, said, “We must acknowledge that genuine economic growth extends beyond statistical adjustments.
“For ordinary Nigerians to experience meaningful improvement in living standards, the President Bola Tinubu administration must complement GDP rebasing with substantive policies addressing infrastructure deficits, security challenges, agricultural productivity, manufacturing capacity, and the overall ease of doing business.”
With Nigeria facing security challenges, infrastructure deficits, and an overreliance on crude oil exports, the Tinubu administration has promised deeper reforms to create jobs, attract manufacturing investment, and support small businesses.
Still, for the first time in a decade, policymakers, investors, and development partners will soon have a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economy. “This isn’t just about growth,” Adeniran said. “It’s about clarity. And with clarity comes opportunity.”
