The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has outlined a short-term macroeconomic agenda for 2026 focused on protecting recent reform gains through tight policy coordination, institutional discipline, and transparent implementation of new laws, according to its macroeconomic outlook.
This was contained in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled ‘Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathways to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria’.
According to the think tank, Nigeria has come to a crossroads where it must consolidate the gains of its reforms to pave the way for sustainable economic transformation and growth.
“The Consolidation Phase represents a crucial bridge between Nigeria’s initial stabilisation achievements and the long-term aspiration for sustainable economic transformation and growth. This phase demands distinguishing measures that protect and embed early economic reforms while setting the stage for accelerated structural transformation. Segmenting strategies by time horizon provides clarity and focus, allowing policymakers and stakeholders to prioritise immediate needs while progressively building foundations for enduring change. In the short term, protecting gains centres on safeguarding macroeconomic stability, expanding fiscal space, ensuring exchange rate stability, and cushioning vulnerable populations from the effects of reform shocks,” said the NESG.
At the core of the short-term measures proposed by the NESG is a call for the government, working in conjunction with the Central Bank, to maintain a tight policy to achieve inflation expectations while strengthening independent monetary decisions and routinely incorporating private sector feedback on inflation expectations.
As a key action, the NESG recommended the introduction of a clear Inflation Targeting Framework, saying, “There is a need for the Central Bank to provide clear communications and further guidance on directions or conditions for a possible change in the Monetary Policy Rate trajectory in 2026. This should also include a detailed foreign exchange intervention policy (e.g., volume, frequency) to avoid perceived market manipulation and specify the fiscal deficit and development financing limits that align with the revised Central Bank Act.”
The PUNCH reports that the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN cut the rate by 50 basis points to 27.00 per cent in September, even as inflation decelerated in 2026, mostly due to the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics.
On the tax reforms, the NESG stressed the importance of implementing the new tax laws transparently through stakeholder consultations, digital taxpayer services, and compliance support. The group calls for engagement with private sector tax groups and international advisors to ensure smooth adoption and revenue expansion.
To support this process, the outlook proposes the establishment of a Presidential Task Force on Fiscal and Regulatory Alignment. With representation from the National Economic Council, the NESG said that the task force would ensure the “linkage of social protection programmes to verifiable, measurable progress in state-level adoption of the new Tax Act, alongside the elimination of specific, identified tax practices that hamper MSME growth.”
In the foreign exchange market, the NESG urged the continuation of market liberalisation, supported by clear communication and transparent foreign exchange auctions. These reforms, coordinated with the banking sector and development finance institutions, are aimed at stabilising the naira.
In terms of quick-win infrastructure, the outlook called for prioritising power and road projects identified in the National Development Plan (2026–2030), with fast-tracked approvals and the use of public-private partnerships supported by development partners for financing and technical assistance.
A further key action is the development of a Power Sector Reform Roadmap in 2026, outlining the government’s commitment to cost-reflective tariffs, with targeted protection for MSMEs and low-income households. The roadmap should also specify a transmission network investment plan and a gas-to-power assurance mechanism to ensure a stable and guaranteed feedstock supply to generation companies.
To mitigate the welfare impacts of inflation and subsidy removal, the NESG recommended expanding and better targeting social protection programmes by scaling up public works interventions for vulnerable households, using social registry data and partnerships with non-governmental organisations and international agencies.
The outlook also calls for the launch of a National Apprenticeship and Skill-Transfer Programme. The programme is envisioned as private sector-led, with the government providing tax breaks for companies that establish certified, sector-specific apprenticeship programmes, such as welding for construction and mechatronics for manufacturing, while ensuring that the skills taught directly meet industry demand.
Overall, the NESG frames these short-term actions as necessary to protect gains already achieved, anchor expectations, and strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic management as the country enters 2026.
Speaking at the launch of the outlook, the chairman of the NESG, Niyi Yusuf, said, “Consolidation to us is a medium-term transition stage where achieved stability must be fortified and translated into productivity gains across the economy. There is a structural bridge between reforms and results. In this space, reduction in macroeconomic disruption must be deliberately leveraged to remove bottlenecks that constrain output, investment, and competitiveness. For Nigeria, consolidation requires a shift in emphasis. Policy must move from inconsistency across sectors to that of coherence, from firefighting to system building, and from short-term fixes to institutional strengthening. The 2026 macroeconomic outlook highlights several pillars critical to successful consolidation and places strong emphasis on sequencing discipline and also on realism. Reform fatigue is a real risk. While reform will be faster, it will be far more costly. So we all have to stay the course. The challenge before us, therefore, is how we must stay the course while refining and strengthening the quality of implementation.
“Nigeria has made difficult choices to stabilise its economy. The task ahead is to ensure that these choices and our sacrifices translate into opportunities, productivity, and shared prosperity. Consolidation is the hard work of turning reform into results for all.”
