The National Bureau of Statistics is set to engage stakeholders ahead of the release of the inflation data for December.

This stakeholders meeting is scheduled to be held on Monday amid multiple projections that the disinflationary trend would be halted temporarily in December over year-end spending and waning base year effects.

The PUNCH reported that CardinalStone projected that the headline inflation would come to 32.07 per cent. However, this jump in inflation is expected to be temporary and reversed in January 2026. Similarly, Coronation Asset Management also expected a reversal of the current disinflationary trend in December, projecting a sharp rise in inflation at year-end. The firm attributed the expected increase largely to base-year effects.

“For December, we expect a reversal of the current disinflationary trend, with inflation projected to rise sharply at year-end, largely reflecting a statistical base-year effect.

On a month-on-month basis, we expect an uptick in headline inflation to persist, reflecting sustained festive-season demand pressures, elevated transport activities associated with holiday travel, and continued cost pass-through from higher logistics and service-sector prices. In addition, food prices are likely to remain under upward pressure as a result of tighter market supplies, insecurity in key producing regions, and increased Yuletide consumption,” Coronation stated in its macroeconomic update.

AIICO Capital, in its macroeconomic update on Friday ahead of the inflation figure release, reiterated that the base-year effect, combined with festive spending, is expected to halt the disinflationary trend in December, with the headline CPI expected to be in a range of 31.4–32.4 per cent year-on-year.

Substantiating its projections, AIICO Capital said, “Our position is based on the base year effect on the components of the headline inflation, core and food inflation, as well as festive season spending on the overall price in December. Our analysis indicates that core inflation, which reflects changes in the average price of non-farm produce, is expected to ease by a minimum of 10bps to 1.0–1.2 per cent m/m and increase by a minimum of 1510bps to 32.50–32.60 per cent year-on-year.

“The month-on-month easing is expected to be driven by two major factors: naira appreciation and reduced petrol price in December. Notably, the naira appreciated by 76 bps (N10.98 per USD) to N1,435.76 per USD at the official window, although it depreciated marginally by 34 bps (N5.00 per USD) to N1,475.00 per USD in the parallel market. In addition, average petrol prices declined by 14.7 per cent, from N890 per litre to N759.5 per litre, following a 16 per cent reduction in gantry prices to N699 per litre by a major domestic refiner, Dangote Refinery.”

Calling on stakeholders to attend the engagement, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, in an email, said, “Inflation has remained one of the most critical macroeconomic indicators globally. In Nigeria, following the CPI rebasing in 2025, the inflation has moderated to 14 per cent in November 2025. Anticipation in some quarters suggests strong expectations that the December 2025 inflation figure could record an artificial spike arising from base effects associated with the arithmetic computation of the inflation rate.”

The private sector think tank added that the expected spike in inflation for December does not reflect a deterioration in underlying structural or economic conditions; “Rather, it is a consequence of the computational methodology. These expectations, if not well understood, risk heightening uncertainty, weakening confidence in official statistics, and complicating policy and business decision-making.

“The National Bureau of Statistics, as the custodian of Nigeria’s official inflation data, plays a vital role in ensuring transparency, methodological clarity, and stakeholder confidence in the Consumer Price Index. Given heightened inflation expectations, it is important to engage technical stakeholders ahead of the release of the December 2025 CPI to discuss inflation dynamics, data trends, and the interpretation of outcomes.

“Accordingly, there is a need to proactively sensitise and engage data users and key stakeholders on what to expect, as well as to clearly communicate how the National Bureau of Statistics intends to address and contextualise this outcome.”

The PUNCH reported that in early 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index with the price reference period updated to 2024 from 2019. The NBS averred that the rebasing reflects current price volatility and provides a clearer understanding of economic trends in Nigeria.