Prof Tukur MuhammadBaba is the Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF). In this interview monitored on Arise Television, he speaks on the build-up to the 2027 presidential election, single term debate and zoning of presidential tickets between the North and South, among other issues, ANAYO EZUGWU writes

What’s your reading of former President Goodluck Jonathan and ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s presidential ticket at a point in time like this?

Well, the most immediate is whether we like it or not, the campaign has started. Two, whether we like it or not, politicians on all sides, I think in my opinion, are desperate for the right team, desperate to appeal to the voters, desperate for relevance and so on and that is not new. We have seen this kind of movements before in other elections, all kinds of permutations, all kinds of combinations.

What is probably surprising is to say the North will support this or the South will support that and so on. These are all speculations. What we do know is that all the political actors or the major political actors in this race want to sell their point of view and so on. Whether or not this will pan out, I think it’s speculative.

When you say the North or South, we are not talking of the people. I think we are talking of the politicians and their desire to win elections and so on. But, certainly, it’s interesting to see the extent all parties are going to pull support to bring whoever they think is a heavyweight.

So, these are interesting times, but we’ll wait to see. I personally think it’s a long way to 2027. But of course, desperation is pushing a lot of people into all kinds of combinations and choices.

As politicians continue to strategise behind the scenes, one major conversation is the issue of a single term. While Peter Obi has come out to declare that he will serve for four years, some people are saying that Jonathan is preferable because he’s only entitled to one term constitutionally. Do you think that this gives Jonathan a competitive edge?

I don’t know whether he is attractive or not. But I think these are permutations and campaign being pushed by politicians. I don’t know if Jonathan will be attractive to anybody except if he comes out and says exactly what he has for the country and wait for the voters to see if that is true.

But so far, I think most people are just speculating on which part of Nigeria will support which candidate or not. Well, Jonathan on the surface of it is attractive because over time, and especially since 2015, he has accumulated a number of positives.

One, he gave up quietly when he thought he lost the election, and he had been living a quiet life, enjoying international recognition, being sent on missions overseas, and so on. And of course, some of the baggage he carried on to 2015, all the thoughts that he was clueless, developments since then seemed to favour him.

It’s a long way to 2027. But, of course, desperation is pushing a lot of people into all kinds of combinations and choices

So, he looks attractive, but I think there is still a long way to go for him to sell himself. Let’s not also forget that in the build-up to 2023, there were speculations that the All Progressives Congress (APC) was wooing him. However, he did not come out openly to say he was interested in the position.

So, to be a candidate, he needs to do a lot more to offer himself as an alternative, to show that he is now different from the Jonathan we knew, whether as a person or circumstances have turned out that some of the criticisms against him were simply political, and so on. Well, anybody could be a candidate.

But I think given the circumstances right now in the country, the difficulties people are facing, the challenging economic conditions, it will take a lot more for a politician, whether they are from the South or the North to convince the electorate that they are different or that they offer a new alternative.

Jonathan stands in that unique situation that he’s the only one, who has one constitutional term allowed to him, except, of course, for the incumbent, who also has one term. Is this not something that gets people excited?

Not to me. Let’s get this clear. The one-term hubris that is being propounded is not a constitutional requirement. This is not the only time we have had some candidates, saying they would go for only one term.

Let’s not forget that the late President Muhammadu Buhari, in the build-up to the 2015 election, at some point, said he would go for one term. This did not happen. So, the one-term issue is not a constitutional requirement, and you cannot hold anybody responsible for that.

And again, to me, it’s kind of crass. If for example, a candidate wins, hypothetically, Peter Obi, and he does very well and he appeals to the electorate, does it mean that when it’s time for the second term, so to speak, he would not contest because he had promised something that is not constitutional?

To me, the one-term idea is just a campaign issue being thrown up by politicians, and it’s an act of desperation. But I think the electorate should be allowed to decide whether a candidate can go for a second term or not. And I think it will be robbing the nation of the benefit of selecting a person that they think has served well and will do well, so that leaves us shortchanged.

Let’s get this clear; the one-term thing is just being thrown up because politicians think that is what the electorate would like to hear. But I am personally very sceptical about it, and I look at it as just a campaign issue that nobody can listen to. Even Atiku Abubakar at some point, I think, leading up to 2015, had promised he would work for one term and then help other regions of the country to get to power.

These are just manipulations of sentiments by politicians to sway the electorate to their side. To me, I don’t give it any serious consideration. This is just a campaign gimmick.

We have heard from former members of the ACF, specifically Anthony Sani, who says that the North doesn’t trust Obi, and his promise that he’ll only stay for just the one term. Do you agree with him and does the ACF agree that the North doesn’t trust Obi and wouldn’t back an Atiku/Obi ticket?

The ACF is a sociocultural organisation. It is political but nonpartisan. One of the key principles of the ACF is not to openly back one party or the other, one candidate or the other.

The ACF does its analysis based on what it thinks are the socioeconomic issues. It has never taken and will not take sides on or against any candidate. Elder Sani, a person I respect very much, was expressed a personal opinion. So, as much as possible, I think we should leave the ACF out of it.

In the build-up to the 2023 elections, the ACF extended invitation to all key political actors vying for the presidency to come and sell themselves. But it never sided with any. Let’s get that clear. So, to expect the ACF to come out for and against any candidate, to me, is neither here nor there.

The ACF as a body has not assessed Obi and will not do that. So, let’s get this out of the way. Obi is a candidate like every other person, and I think he stands a good chance depending on how he sells himself. But to say that one part of the country or another will support him or does not support him is speculation and it is a personal opinion. Elder Sani or myself cannot speak for the ACF or for the North.

The North is a highly complex society. There is no one part of the North, either singly or collectively, that will say it supports or do not support a candidate. A lot will depend on circumstances. A lot will depend on the appeal that candidate has. So, I think it will be a great disservice for anyone to say they are speaking for the North because the region is not one political entity.

It’s a highly complex geopolitical entity with over 200 ethnic groups and all sorts of religious persuasions. And I think anybody who says they speak for the North directly; that this is definitely what the North will do or will not do is just expressing a personal opinion. Don’t be too sure on this idea.

Do you think that the North has a mechanism of punishing people that renege on their words, especially those who say they’re going to do one term, and politically, is the North monolithic?

No, it is not. In fact, I think the North is one of the most politically diverse entities in the country. Let’s go back to the post-independent period. The North had many parties. The Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) was of course the dominant party but there was Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU).

There was the Taka-led Middle Belt Congress. If you check the Northern Assembly in the post-independent period, the North had so many other interests that were also represented. Fast forward to 1979; again, the North showed itself to be diverse.

We had the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP), the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), and they were all represented at the state and national levels by diverse political interests. Again, in 2023, the North was represented by diverse backgrounds and diverse political persuasions. We make too much of the so-called cultural affinity that push Northerners to one side or another.

But I personally think going through history, as I did, the North has been one of the most politically and ideologically diverse entities in the country. So, anyone who claims to be speaking for the whole North, is just deceiving himself and no one should make any mistake about it.

As long as it is a democratic atmosphere, the North will continue to show diversity. Of course, it is tempting to look at the major or the overriding political group. But no, the North is more highly diverse than we give credit to it.

What has been dominating the headlines recently is that the North is feeling neglected by President Bola Tinubu’s administration. I would like you to just cast your memory back; was the North neglected by Jonathan’s administration?

No, not necessarily. In a political atmosphere like we have, everyone would like to have the most for themselves. The North had challenges, and I wouldn’t say the North, but a lot of people felt neglected. A lot of people felt Jonathan was not doing well but I think that was not exactly what pushed him out.

What pushed him out, in my opinion, were promises by the APC – security, anti-corruption fight and development. None of this panned out and it turned out that what we thought was the answer was far from being the answer. Fast forward 2023. You know, the human being is a very hopeful and optimistic being.

So, every time we elect people, we support them, but I think it’s not because they are North or they are South. It’s because of what is on ground. For example, what will decide, in my opinion, the 2027 election is ability to respond to the people’s

There is a difference between actual implementation and statement of intentions. You can do allocations in the budget but implementation is a different thing

needs – economic challenges, insecurity, infrastructure, and so on. But again, I insist that there may be ideas about one part of the country being predominantly pro or against any candidate. If you cast your mind back again to 2023, nobody gave Peter Obi a chance of coming third but he did and he made inroads into what you call the North.

Of course, that was not enough but none of the candidates can be said to have garnered the North wholesale So, I think it is good that our politicians should interrogate more than geographic destinations.

No one but the electorate should be allowed to determine whether or not a candidate gets into office. When you talk about difficulties; every part of the country is hurting although some more than others.

Of course, the North has come to this stage with a lot of baggage. In terms of socioeconomic indices of human development, the North had lagged behind – education, health and infrastructure.

So, the problems are easily generalised to be Northern but let’s be clear about it, every part of the country is suffering. Let me take you back again to a few months ago, when the tax bills were before the National Assembly. Everyone was shouting, it is the North that is disadvantaged.

It’s not. A careful analysis will show that every part of the country needed to speak in one voice on the direction of the tax bills, because they affect everybody. So, the idea that it’s only the North that is on the ground and crying is not true. It’s a manipulation by political interest groups.

Do you think Nigeria fared better under Jonathan than it is currently faring under Tinubu?

I will tell you that the circumstances are different. There is a lot of suffering under this present administration. Of course, during Jonathan’s time, there was one major problem and that was insecurity. But he did not remove fuel subsidy and he left Naira alone. There was subsidy for electricity.

All of these that have been removed have put the country now in a desperate situation. And I think it’s easy to say that people are suffering now more than they did in the past.

But we need to put it in context. A lot of things have happened that probably should not have happened. Probably, they should have been more thought out.

The removal of fuel subsidy, electricity subsidy and floating of the Naira have amplified our problems. Of course, you cannot run away from lopsided appointments into ‘lucrative positions’ by this government and allocation of resources in favour of one region of the country.

You need to put all these into context. But certainly, the suffering that people are facing today from the North to South affects everyone although some more than the others. So again, it’s a question of perhaps the beauties in the eye of the beholder. But certainly, the challenges now have been unprecedented.

Rabiu Kwankwaso recently alleged that the Tinubu administration is favouring the South, when it comes to development, while abandoning the North. Do you believe that there is some merit in his comment?

I will not say abandoned; I will say there is definitely disparity in allocation of resources. Kwankwaso is a politician, we should never forget that.

But certainly, the ACF in 2024 confronted the President and gave him a list of what we think the priorities of the North are – infrastructure, education, economic empowerment and so on. And you can always say that the current administration is not doing enough. There is a lot more to be done.

So, what I will say is that Kwankwaso expressed his opinion. He is entitled to it, and of course, I will express my opinion. I think there are so many things that could have been done by the present administration to improve the conditions of North.

What is it that ought to be done that has not been done and what should be done to please the North?

I hesitate to generalise on the North. You can’t force me to do that because, for me, the evidence is not as straightforward as you think. When the government speaks of 52 per cent allocation to the North, I laugh because it reminds me of a book during my undergraduate days over 50 years ago – ‘How to Lie with Statistics.’ If it is 50 per cent, let’s see it on ground. If it’s 50 per cent of appointments, let’s see it. You can lie with statistics. You can claim everything.

There is a difference between actual implementation and statement of intentions. You can do allocations in the budget but implementation is a different thing. You can actually allocate 80 per cent if it is not implemented, to what effect, and if there is no cash backing, to what effect?

Look at allocations to agriculture, which is the background of the economy of the North. How much have we devoted to agriculture? Let me give you the recent allocation of funds to universities; out of seven universities that were selected for intervention, four are in the South-West.