Private sector operators have called on businesses to urgently revise their outlook for 2025 as the global economy reels from the ongoing tariff war, while internal insecurity threatens to derail growth forecasts.
This warning follows the country’s economic expansion for the third consecutive month in March, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The PMI rose to 52.3 index points, signalling growth in economic activities across industry, services, and agriculture. Agriculture led with an index of 54.7, while services and industry posted 51.5 points.
However, in separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, these stakeholders say these gains may prove temporary as inflation worsens to 24.23 per cent in March and global oil prices tank.
President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, pointed out that projections for 2025, which initially looked optimistic in December, must now be adjusted in light of deteriorating global conditions.
“The outlook for the rest of the year has changed from what it was in December,” Idahosa stated. “The assumption was that we would see improvement following reforms and the expectation of sufficient refined products supply. But now, the Trump tariffs have upended the global economy.”
He noted that crude oil prices had fallen from the budgeted $75 per barrel to as low as $65, threatening Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and worsening imported inflation.
“Crude oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange. If exports fall, foreign exchange inflows will drop, the naira will come under pressure, and inflation will rise,” he added.
According to the LCCI president, the Trump administration’s tariff policies which significantly impact on China and India, Nigeria’s major trade partners, have already begun disrupting global manufacturing and logistics chains.
“Manufacturing around the world will come down. We already see that logistics are being disrupted by the tariffs. Vehicles are sitting idle because there aren’t enough goods to move,” he lamented. “So the business community must now return to the drawing board. All assumptions about inflation, exchange rate stability, and improved investment climate are no longer guaranteed.”
Idahosa also stressed that to cushion the impact of the global slowdown, Nigeria must urgently ramp up local production and address worsening insecurity.
“The only way we can reduce the negative impact of the tariffs is by improving security, especially in areas where agriculture and agri-processing are threatened,” Idahosa added.
Meanwhile, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, appraised the March PMI figures, noting that they were driven by short-term factors such as temporary exchange rate stability and a marginal drop in inflation.
“There’s been some stability in FX, which boosts investor and consumer confidence,” Yusuf observed. “Oil output was also recovering before the Trump tariff issues began in April. So those might have lifted the March PMI.”
However, he warned that inflationary pressures could soon reverse these gains, especially with insecurity in the North affecting food prices.
“If food is driving inflation, then security is a major concern,” the CPPE director warned. “The deterioration in the exchange rate and rising input costs like diesel and logistics may further strain businesses.”
While the CBN’s survey showed output growth (52.8), new orders (52.2), and employment (51.7), available analysis also noted that cost pressures remain high. Input prices across sectors outpaced output prices, with the industry sector experiencing the highest cost burden.
Yusuf cautioned that April’s PMI may reflect the true impact of Trump’s tariffs, which were introduced in early April and are yet to fully manifest in official data.
“There’s a clear possibility of a dip in April. The Trump effect, insecurity, and FX depreciation are already aligning to increase inflation and squeeze growth,” he warned.
The CBN’s PMI survey, conducted from March 10–14 with responses from 1,900 firms, indicated contraction in exports (45.1) and imports (48.4), further reflecting the strain on external trade.
As the global economic environment turns volatile, private sector leaders are urging businesses to temper expectations and adopt more conservative strategies ahead of 2025.
