The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has attributed its accurate forecast of a 14 per cent inflation rate by the end of 2025 to what it described as a rigorous and data-driven analysis of the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI explained that although President Tinubu projected a 15 per cent inflation rate in his 2025 budget presentation, its analysts were convinced as early as September that the economy would outperform that target using a Predictive Regression (PR) model.
IMPI stated that its initial projection of a 17 per cent inflation rate by the end of 2025, made in September, was based on a trend analysis comparing the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
However, the think tank said it revised its forecast downward in October after observing stronger indicators of increased productivity and accelerated price moderation beginning from August 2025.
“Barely a month later, in our policy statement issued in October, we reviewed our position when a clearer pattern of rising productivity and faster price reduction emerged,” the statement said.
With access to a new dataset and the application of the Predictive Regression model, IMPI concluded that a 14 per cent inflation rate was more realistic than its earlier 17 per cent projection.
The group explained that its analysis established a sustained relationship between rising PMI figures and declining inflation. According to IMPI, the CBN’s Composite PMI rose to 55.4 index points in October 2025, marking a significant increase from the levels recorded between April and September.
“This improvement was reflected in the headline inflation rate, which declined more rapidly to 16.50 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September, representing a drop of 1.96 percentage points,” IMPI noted.
It added that an increase in PMI typically signals higher growth momentum in production and productivity across 36 sectors of the economy, which in turn exerts downward pressure on inflation.
The think tank said it was therefore unsurprised when headline inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month in November to 14.45 per cent, attributing the development to improved macroeconomic stability.
IMPI expressed optimism that the disinflationary trend would persist into 2026, provided the Tinubu administration remains consistent with its monetary, fiscal and structural policy reforms.
According to the group, the planned deployment of 2,000 tractors acquired from Belarus to farms nationwide from January 2026 would further support productivity and food supply, helping to sustain inflation moderation.
IMPI noted that the tractors would not be distributed to individuals but deployed under a mechanised service-provider model, with each tractor expected to cover at least 500 hectares of farmland, enabling the cultivation of about 100,000 hectares and supporting millions of farmers.
The organisation concluded that Nigeria’s economy has significantly improved compared to the high inflationary pressures of 2024, adding that the ongoing disinflation is likely to lift more Nigerians out of poverty as the reforms take deeper root.
