The International Air Transport Association has released data for January 2026 showing a 3.8 per cent year-on-year increase in global passenger demand, despite the impact of the Lunar New Year calendar shift.

According to IATA, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, rose 3.8 per cent compared to January 2025, while total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, increased 3.5 per cent year-on-year. The load factor reached 82.0 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from January 2025, marking a record high for the month.

International demand climbed 5.9 per cent year-on-year, with capacity up 5.8 per cent and load factor at 82.5 per cent, also a January record. Domestic demand, however, edged up by just 0.1 per cent, as capacity fell 0.4 per cent year-on-year. The domestic load factor improved to 81.2 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year.

IATA noted that January’s performance was skewed by the shift of the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026.

The holiday typically drives a surge in travel demand, making year-on-year comparisons appear slightly weaker.

Commenting on the figures, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said, “The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8 per cent expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026. Schedule data, for example, indicates a 5.2 per cent increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians and civil aviation free from harm.”

He added, “Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these costs and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments that value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed.”

Regionally, international RPK growth reached 5.9 per cent year-on-year, with all regions posting expansions, though growth decelerated in Asia-Pacific due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The international load factor stood at 82.5 per cent, the highest ever recorded for January.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 4.4 per cent year-on-year increase in demand, with capacity up 5.2 per cent and load factor at 85.9 per cent, down 0.7 percentage points from January 2025.

European carriers posted a 6.3 per cent increase in demand, with capacity rising 5.7 per cent and load factor improving 79.4 per cent, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.

North American airlines saw demand grow 3.4 per cent, with capacity up 2.6 per cent and load factor at 82.3 per cent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points.

Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 7.2 per cent rise in demand, with capacity up 7.8 per cent and load factor at 83.2 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year.

Latin American airlines reported one of the strongest performances, with demand surging 11.4 per cent year-on-year. Capacity increased 8.9 per cent, while the load factor reached 86.5 per cent, up 2.0 percentage points.

African airlines posted an 11.7 per cent increase in demand, with capacity up 10.1 per cent and load factor rising 77.4 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points compared to January 2025.

Domestic RPK rose marginally by 0.1 per cent, largely affected by the Lunar New Year shift. While China, Australia, and the United States recorded traffic declines, Brazil stood out with a 10.9 per cent year-on-year increase in domestic traffic.

IATA said the data indicate that, despite geopolitical uncertainties and cost pressures, the fundamentals remain supportive of continued passenger demand growth in 2026.

Meanwhile, IATA has released data for January showing a strong start to the year for global air cargo markets, with total demand rising 5.6 per cent year-on-year.

According to the body, total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, increased by 5.6 per cent compared to January 2024 levels, while international operations recorded a stronger 7.2 per cent growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, rose 3.6 per cent year-on-year, with international capacity up 5.7 per cent.

Commenting on the performance, Walsh said:

“The demand for air cargo had a robust start to 2026, recording 5.6 per cent year-on-year growth in January. At the regional level, the story is more polarised. Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions. The resilience of air cargo will continue to be tested in the coming months. In addition to the long-running uncertainties of evolving US trade policies, the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will weigh heavily on global supply chains. Addressing these topics will add extra importance to discussions at the upcoming World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru (10-12 March 2026), where strengthening air cargo’s adaptability and efficiency through digitalisation and other measures will be a key focus.”

IATA noted that several factors in the operating environment influenced performance. Global goods trade expanded 4.9 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, while jet fuel prices fell 6.5 per cent year-on-year in January, easing cost pressures for carriers.

Global manufacturing sentiment also strengthened during the period. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.8 in January, surpassing the 50-point expansion threshold and reaching its highest level in over 18 months. Meanwhile, the PMI for new export orders climbed to 49.9, slightly below the growth threshold but the highest in 10 months, indicating mixed yet cautiously optimistic industrial growth.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 7.8 per cent year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in January, maintaining their position as the primary engine of industry expansion. Capacity in the region increased by 3.3 per cent year-on-year.

North American carriers experienced a 0.5 per cent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand, making it one of the weaker-performing regions. It was also the only region to record a capacity decrease, with a slight 0.2 per cent year-on-year drop.

European airlines posted a 6.9 per cent year-on-year increase in cargo demand in January, while capacity rose 4.9 per cent year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers reported a 9.3 per cent year-on-year growth in demand, with capacity surging 9.9 per cent, the strongest capacity expansion among all regions.

Latin American and Caribbean airlines saw a 2.0 per cent year-on-year decline in demand, the weakest performance globally, although capacity increased 2.3 per cent.

African airlines recorded the strongest regional performance, with an 18.2 per cent year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity in the region grew 6.5 per cent year-on-year.

The January data underscores a broadly resilient global air cargo market, even as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties continue to pose risks to supply chains and future growth.