The World Trade Organisation has revealed that goods trade expanded at a steady pace in the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, which registered a reading of 102.7. This value, above the baseline of 100, indicated above-trend trade growth.
However, the report indicated that the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to potential shifts in trade policies and rising economic instability.
It noted that the Goods Trade Barometer serves as a leading indicator of merchandise trade, providing insights into trade volumes relative to historical trends.
However, readings above 100 signify stronger-than-trend growth, while readings below 100 suggest weaker performance.
“All component indices of the barometer, except for electronic components, stayed on or above trend. The electronic components index stood at 95.4, reflecting stabilisation below trend levels,” the report stated.
In contrast, it highlighted that container shipping (105.8), automotive products (104.0), and air freight (102.9) indices demonstrated solid above-trend growth, with container shipping showing the most significant improvement over the last quarter.
Export orders and raw materials indices, both at 100.5, remained near the baseline, pointing to stable trade activity in the near term.
The report stated that despite the overall positive outlook, challenges loom. The air freight index, while above the trend, lost momentum, highlighting sectoral variability. Export orders, a reliable predictor of trade trends, hovered around the baseline, indicating steady but cautious growth expectations.
According to the WTO’s October trade forecast, a 2.7 per cent growth in global trade volumes is projected for 2024, with a slight acceleration to 3.0 per cent in 2025. Regional variations, however, remain stark.
It further mentioned that Asian economies exceeded expectations in export growth, while North American imports surged. On the other hand, European trade flows continued to decline in both exports and imports, weighing on global trade growth.
It also mentioned the upcoming WTO forecast in April 2025 is expected to shed further light on these trends. In the meantime, potential trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties are critical variables that could influence the trajectory of global trade in 2025.
“The current data reflects cautious optimism for continued growth, but the need for predictable trade policies and robust international cooperation is evident to sustain and enhance global trade dynamics,” the report said.
