The six months’ state of emergency rule imposed on River State by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on March 18 is expected to lapse next Wednesday, September 17 with expectations that all the issues around the crisis that led to the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara would have been permanently put to rest for peace to reign.

To pundits, the return of the governor is expected to usher in a new vista of opportunity for progress and development for the oil rich state with many hoping that Governor Fubara would have found the need to be in sync with all stakeholders in the state particularly, the Minister for the Federal Capital Territory, Chief Nyesom Wike, in his task to move the state forward.

Apart from Chief Wike, two other critical stakeholders that are key to the smooth running of the state include members of the state House of Assembly as well as the newly sworn in local government chairmen and councilors who were recently elected into office.

Should the governor fail to toe this line of action, many reckon that in no time Rivers will relapse into another round of politically-induced upheaval that prompted the President to issue the suspension order initially.

Fubara, a journey from obscurity to political prominence

Until he won the governorship ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), nothing much was known of Fubara politically though he was the accountant general of the state having been appointed by Chief Wike as then governor in 2020.

Despite his relative political obscurity, Chief Wike had to place his political structure at his disposal when he (Governor Fubara) sought and won the ticket of the party in May 2022 polling 721 votes to beat 15 other aspirants that contested in the straw poll with him.

The Opobo-born accountant subsequently went on to win the general election that took place in March, 2023 scoring 302, 614 votes to defeat Chief Tonye Cole of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who secured 95,274 votes and Beatrice Itubo of the Labour Party who got 22, 224 votes.

Like his peers in other states, Fubura was subsequently sworn in as the governor of the state but hardly had he settled in office than rumours of likely breach of trust between him and his benefactor, Chief Wike, began to make the rounds.

The simmering crisis of confidence soon came to the public when stakeholders became polarised queuing behind the feuding gladiators in a manner that not only threatened the peace of the state but the country at large considering the fact that the state plays a vital role in the supply of crude oil, which is the mainstay of the nation’s economy.

Those in the know told Saturday Telegraph that Governor Fubara started avoiding Chief Wike five months into his tenure in office and the situation degenerated so badly that both leaders were no longer seen together during state and party functions with unconfirmed reports suggesting that the source of discord might not be unconnected with issues relating to management state resources.

Breach of peace and the ensuing political battle

The first battle of wits took place inside the state’s House of Assembly as the two sought effective control of the hallowed chambers as a means of maintaining political edge in the ensuing battle.

The first indication of who was in charge of the Assembly came when the governor was able to present the 2024 budget proposal totally the sum of N1.188tr to a three member House then led by Hon. Edison Ehie with 29 others led by Hon. Martin Amaewhule abstaining.

The same scenario played out a year later when the governor, again presented the budget to the same minority lawmakers whose ranks had been swelled by an additional member. The House believed to be loyal to the governor was however being led by Victor Oko-Jumbo who replaced Ehie.

In December 2023, the 27 members defected from the PDP to the APC, citing a significant division within the PDP for their action, making it impossible to identify a legitimate national secretary, as the constitutional basis for their defection.

The action was taken without recourse to Section 109 of the 1999 Constitution and without any crisis or division in the PDP however triggering a series litigations that has continued till date.

Members loyal to Fubara in May 2024 in direct response to the defection of their colleagues wrote to the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) to conduct elections to fill the vacant seats in the state legislature.

The Hon. Victor Oko-Jumbo-led Assembly in October the same year resolved to invoke the provision of the 1999 Constitution against Hon. Amaewhule and other lawmakers following their defection but before they could do that, the state government decided to seek a judicial interpretation on the matter.

A state High Court presided over by Justice C. N. Wali in an exparte order issued shortly after the defection on May 10, 2024 stopped the defected members from sitting in the Assembly auditorium.

The suit was instituted by Hon. Oko Jumbo and two other members of his faction, namely; Hon. Sokari Goodboy Sokari, and Hon. Orubienimigha Adolphus Timothy.

Before Oko-Jombo filed his suit, Justice Danagogo of the state High Court, had in a ruling, upheld Ehie prior to his ouster as the authentic speaker at the time. He later resigned his position and Oko-Jumbo was elected the new speaker.

Sensing likely judicial defeat and despite a plethora of video evidence and court documents where they gleefully announced their defections, the Hon. Amaewhule led Assembly members beat a retreat, saying they were still members of the PDP.

Yet, from time to time, the group was seen to be criticising Governor Fubara just as they threatened to impeach him from office. The beleaguered speaker at some point faulted the governor over his appointments and handling of the financial matters in the state.

Turning the tide against Fubara

Rather than address the situation, the judiciary further compounded it with the gladiators and the supporters obtaining a series of conflicting judgments from courts of same jurisdiction on the matter.

Judicial respite later came for Amaewhule and his group when the Supreme Court made it clear that there was no iota or shred of evidence to support the claim of defection made against him and 26 other members for defecting from the PDP to the APC.

In the judgment, the apex court faulted Governor Fubara who raised the allegations of defection against the 27 lawmakers on his own volition withdrew the allegations at the Federal High Court in Abuja.

By not supporting the defection claim against the Amaewhule-led leadership, the apex court held that in the eyes of the law, no defection has taken place and consequently the status quo in the House of Assembly must remain.

The court held that it is an aberration for Governor Fubara to make any request, nominations and presentations to the Rivers State House of Assembly unless the one led by Hon Martin Amaewhule and believed to be loyal to former governor Nyesom Wike.

“What is clear from the above concurrent findings is that the respondent (Fubara) started the prevention of the sittings of the Rivers State House of Assembly constituted by the number of members as prescribed by Section 96 of the 1999 Constitution long before the issue of the remaining 27 members defecting to another political party arose.

The judgment of the Court further strengthened the hands of the Chief Wike camp which subsequently issued a 24-hour ultimatum to the governor to re-present the 2025 budget to it, a demand Governor Fubara was willing to meet but he was locked out of the Assembly premises the day he went to re-present the document as demanded.

Addressing the media after the encounter, Governor Fubara said, “I’m here myself this morning to comply with the Supreme Court judgment. Before my arrival, I’ve already made several attempts by phone call to reach the Speaker and other members. I also did a letter personally, which was transmitted to the Honourable Speaker for this particular invitation.”

Shortly after that, particularly on March 30, the Chief Wike camp issued an impeachment threat against Governor Fubara. Amaewhule accused Fubara of refusing to abide by all the Abuja peace agreements, pointing out that the governor has continued to act outside the law, including running the state without an approved budget.

Imposition of Emergency Rule

Sensing a descent to anarchy, President Bola Tinubu in a broadcast to the nation in March suspended all democratic structures in River State leading to the suspension of Governor Fubara, his deputy and all members of the state House of Assembly.

President Tinubu’s mediatory efforts

It is instructive to note that President Tinubu tried several times to mediate in the dispute between the two camps before and after the imposition of the state of emergence rule in the state.

Perhaps, the most significant of such mediatory efforts was the one that took place on June 27 when the two combating camps spoke elaborately to the media on the truce they reached with a promise that peace will return to the oil reach state and that with the meeting, Governor Fubara’s return was imminent.

Speaking to newsmen, Chief Wike said, “an agreement has been brokered, adding that” We have all agreed to work with the Governor.

“We have all agreed to work together with the governor, and the governor also agreed to work together with all of us. We are members of the same political family.

“Yes, just like humans, you have a disagreement, and then you also have a time to also settle your disagreement.

“That has been finally concluded today, and we have come to report to Mr. President, that is what we have agreed, so for me, everything is over. I enjoin everybody who believes to work with us, to also work together with everybody that there’s no more acrimony. There’s nothing more to say.”

On his part, Governor Fubara said, “We will work to sustain this peace. For me, it’s a day we have to thank Almighty God. For me, is it very important that this day has come to be.

“What we need for the progress of Rivers State is peace and by the special grace of God this night, with the help of Mr. President and the agreement of the leaders of the state, our leader, peace has returned in River State. We’ll do everything within our power to make sure that we sustain it this time around.”

With the impeding return of all the suspended democratic structures, it remains to be seen how the gladiators would stick to their avowed pledge for peace, this is considering the series of concessions the governor has made in his bid to keep peace.

Time will also tell how Chief Wike who seems to have been heavily favoured politically would restrain himself and not use his advantage to upstage the apple cart.