Despite the deceleration in the headline inflation over April and May, economic watchers have expressed fears regarding food inflation.

According to the last Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the headline inflation rate eased to 22.97 per cent relative to the April 2025 headline inflation rate of 23.71 per cent.

The food inflation rate in May 2025 was 21.14 per cent, about 19.52 percentage points lower than that of May 2024 (40.66 per cent), a decline which the NBS put down to the change in the base year. Recall that the CPI was recently rebased to 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in May 2025 was 2.19 per cent, up by 0.12 per cent compared to April 2025 (2.06 per cent).

The NBS said that the rate increase can be attributed to changes in the average prices of yam, avenger ogbono, cassava tuber, maize, flour, fresh pepper, sweet potatoes, etc. The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending May 2025 over the previous 12-month average was 29.80 per cent, which was 4.26 per cent lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in May 2024 (34.06 per cent).

Commenting on the trend, Parthian Partners, in its inflation report, stated, “Escalating insecurity in food-producing regions, such as the recent killings in Benue and flooding in parts of Niger State, could disrupt food supply chains, driving up staple prices.

“Hence, while headline inflation appears to be on a moderating path, the balance of risks still tilts to the upside. Sustaining disinflation will require not only continued FX market stability but also targeted interventions to mitigate supply shocks, particularly in agriculture. For monetary authorities, the current environment calls for a cautious stance, balancing inflation management with support for a fragile recovery in domestic demand.”

Experts at investment house Afrinvest West Africa Limited expressed similar concerns about the persistent risks in the food sector, which they claimed stemmed from agrarian and structural factors.

“As noted earlier, food inflation has maintained above 2.0 per cent m/m print since February, contrasting disinflation in core prices. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, below-average rainfall in the South along with shortened rains and conflict in the North could dampen crop yield for the year, extending the underwhelming 2024 main harvest episode.”

Providing some cheery news, though, Afrinvest said that the onset of the green harvest in the Southern region could lift the near-term food supply outlook.

On the June projection, the analysts said food inflation is expected to remain sticky due to festive-related shopping. “However, sustained currency appreciation and the lagged impact of PMS price cuts in late May are likely to counteract the impact of holiday-induced price hikes in some core items and keep the sub-component inflation modest. Overall, we project a 14 bps uptick in monthly headline inflation to 1.7 per cent but an extended decline in y/y rate to 22.2 per cent y/y, owing to a high base year,” the experts maintained.

Meristem researchers took a similar line on food prices, saying, “Food inflation may remain sticky in the months ahead, as planting season disruptions, logistical bottlenecks, and persistent insecurity in key food-producing belts could constrain supply and exert upward pressure on staple prices.”

On core inflation, the experts said they expect the downward trajectory to be maintained in the near term, supported by FX stability and softening input costs.