Europe could increasingly turn to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for jet fuel supplies following disruptions in the Middle East.

According to a report by Kpler, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off nearly 21 per cent of global seaborne jet fuel supply, significantly tightening availability in Europe.

The report noted that European imports could drop by almost 300,000 barrels per day, with about 247,000 bpd typically destined for North West Europe.

Kpler said the loss of Middle Eastern cargoes has left Europe with limited replacement options, as traditional backup suppliers in Asia are redirecting shipments to meet stronger regional demand.

“Eastern barrels are increasingly unavailable as strong Asian pricing and export restrictions in China, and potentially South Korea, divert cargoes away from Europe,” the report stated.

It added that cargoes from India, particularly from the Jamnagar refinery, would normally provide relief in such situations, but concerns over European Union sanctions linked to Russian crude have discouraged buyers.

With supply from the East constrained, attention is shifting to the Atlantic Basin, especially the United States Gulf Coast and West Africa, including the Dangote refinery.

Kpler noted that Dangote exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in 2025, positioning it as a potential alternative supply source for Europe.

The report said West Africa has become structurally long on refined products, largely due to output from the Dangote refinery, meaning export volumes could still be available even if domestic supply priorities are maintained.

“The US Atlantic Coast is largely supplied from within the US, with some flow from Canada, and hence the reaction in the US has been significantly weaker. We anticipate more exports to come in March from the USGC, helping to offset the lost cargoes from the AG.

“The USGC will not fully offset the missing volume, but with West Africa effectively a net long region in 2024, thanks to the Dangote refinery, there is another supply point that can be tapped. Dangote exported around 89kbd of jet fuel in 2025.

“This structural length means that even if a policy of first supplying the domestic Nigerian market were enacted, exports would still materialise, especially as the refinery returns from maintenance,” Kpler said.

However, analysts cautioned that supplies from other sources would not be sufficient to fully offset the shortfall created by the loss of Middle Eastern flows.

Kpler said exports from the US Gulf Coast remain constrained by existing demand from Latin America, specification differences, and infrastructure limitations, despite arbitrage opportunities to Europe.

“Overall, exports rarely exceed one million tonnes in a month, although in January exports hit an all-time high of 307,000 barrels per day,” it added.

The report also highlighted logistical challenges in redistributing supplies within Europe, noting that refinery configurations, existing diesel commitments, and infrastructure limitations could hinder efforts to boost jet fuel output locally.

While sustainable aviation fuel is gradually gaining traction in Europe due to regulatory mandates, Kpler said it still accounts for only a small share of total supply and would have minimal impact on the current supply gap.

As a result, the report concluded that even with increased flows from the US and West Africa, including the Dangote refinery, Europe is unlikely to fully replace lost Middle Eastern jet fuel supplies in the near term.

It said the market would instead have to adjust through higher prices and longer trade routes to rebalance supply.