FELIX NWANERI reports on how the fortunes of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have continued to diminish since its defeat in the 2015 presidential election by the All Progressives Congress (APC) after the party’s dominance of Nigeria’s political landscape for 16 years
Until the defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 presidential election, the party, which prides itself as “Africa’s largest political party” had before then, won four consecutive presidential elections in the current dispensation – 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011.
The PDP equally controlled more than two-third of elective positions at the federal, state and local government levels within the period. However, the leadership of the party got carried away at a time and boasted that they will rule Nigeria for 60 years before any other party can unseat them.
The boast was despite the fact that the PDP was opposition to itself all through the 16 years it was in power as internal wrangling over tickets for the various elective offices, usually polarise the party every general election year.
In 2003, for instance, some governors elected on the party’s platform wanted to replace then President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was seeking a second term. Their choice was Atiku Abubakar, then vice president.
The former shunned the offer, opting to run on a joint ticket with his principal, but the dust raised by the plot, pitted Obasanjo against the governors behind it. The story was the same in the states, as those who dared to contest the governorship primaries against incumbent governors were forced to quit the party for the opposition parties.
Majority of the defectors, however, returned shortly after losing at the polls, with some offered juicy appointments to calm frayed nerves. But political analysts argued at that time that the reconciliation was a make-believe one, as the PDP is made up of politicians with different ideologies and that the relative peace would not stand the test of time.
They were soon proved right when the bubble burst again during the build up to the 2007 general election. Several state chapters of the party saw emergence of parallel executives that went as far as conducting parallel congresses and primaries.
The climax was the opening of a parallel national secretariat in Abuja by the Chief Solomon Lar-led faction. Lar was the first national chairman of the party. A threat to use force on members of the faction by the then Ahmadu Ali-led National Working Committee (NWC), forced some founding members of the party, who had earlier agreed to lead the new faction to developed cold feet and the “rebellion” was quelled.
The 2007 drama played up again in 2010, ahead of the 2011 elections. This time, aggrieved members under the aegis of PDP Reform Group emerged and sought a return to the ideologies of the party’s founding fathers. Like in the past, the PDP leadership rose against the “rebels” under the leadership of a former Senate President, Ken Nnamani.
The then NWC, headed by Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, suspended members of the group. Prominent among those affected were Senators Nnamani and Adolphus Wabara (also a former Senate President); former Speaker, House of Representatives, Hon. Aminu Bello Masari as well as former Governors Peter Odili and Achike Udenwa of Rivers and Imo states, respectively.
While the respective PDP leaderships were able to suppress the 2003, 2007 and 2010 revolts; that of 2013 proved the last straw that broke the camel’s back. To the shock of most political observers and analysts, the party lost five of its governors to the opposition at a go.
This monumental loss and consequent disenchantment over the PDP’s presidential ticket, explained why the then ruling party went into the 2015 elections a divided house and was handed a shocking defeat. The PDP not only lost the ultimate prize – the presidency, but most of its controlled states and its majority in the National Assembly.
While it was the same path for the party in 2019 given the squabble over its presidential ticket, the main opposition party had what could be described as its worse internal wrangling after its presidential primary election that saw the emergence of Atiku for the 2023 elections.
The aftermath of the crisis was that five of the party’s governors otherwise known as G5 – Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Samuel Ortom (Benue) – withdrew support for the party’s presidential candidate as the National Chairman, Iyorchia refused to yield to their demand to step down in order to pave the way for a southerner to assume the position.
The consequence was that the party went into the 2023 presidential election a divided house, and there is no disputing the fact that it contributed to PDP’s loss in the presidential poll.
1999: Won presidency and 21 states
In 1998, the PDP nominated a former military leader, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as its presidential candidate in the elections of February 1999, with Atiku Abubakar (then Governor-elect of Adamawa State) as his running mate. The duo won the poll and were inaugurated on May 29, 1999. In the governorship elections that held across the country’s 36 states, the party won in 21.
They are Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Niger, Katsina, Nasarawa, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba.
The defunct All Peoples Party (APP) won in nine states – Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara, while Alliance for Democracy (AD) swept the six states of the South-West geo-political zone – Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.
In the legislative elections that held on April 12, 2003, the party won 59 out of 109 seats in the Senate and 223 out of 360 seats in the House of Representatives.
2003: Won presidency and 28 states
The PDP consolidated its grip on power in the 2003 elections. While Obasanjo was re-elected as president, the party extended the number of states under its control to 28, but later lost Anambra to APGA in 2006 through the court. This reduced the number of PDPcontrolled states to 27.
The party retained Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Niger, Katsina, Nasarawa, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba states, which it won in 1999, and took four out of the five South Western states won by AD in 1999.
They are Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo states. Gombe, Kwara and Kogi states that were formerly under the APP also fell to the PDP. The party also extended its control in the legislature. Its seats in the Senate increased from 59 to 76, while that of the House of Representatives jumped from 206 to 223.
2007: Won presidency and 27 states
In 2007, the PDP nominated the then governor of Katsina State, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, as its presidential candidate. This followed the party’s zoning arrangement. Yar’Adua, a northerner, picked Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, was the then governor of Bayelsa State as his running mate and he went ahead to win the presidential election. In the governorship election, the party won in 27 states.
The are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto and Taraba. APP, which by then had transformed to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), won in Bauchi, Borno, Kano, Yobe and Zamfara.
A new party – Progressives Peoples Party (PPA) won in Abia and Imo states, while Action Congress (AC), won in Lagos State. The PDP later lost Edo, Ekiti and Osun to AC through the courts, while Ondo went the same way to Labour Party (LP) to reduce the number of states controlled by the party to 23.
However, what the party lost through the courts, it gained through defection. Then governors of Imo and Abia states, who were elected on the platform of the PPA as well as their Zamfara counterpart (ANPP), jumped ship to the then ruling party, raising PDP’s states to 26. The PDP also maintained its control of the National Assembly.
In the Senate, its seats jumped from 76 in 2003 to 87, while that of the House of Representatives jumped from to 223 to 263. While the presidency was to remain in the North for eight years (2007-2015), power shifted unexpectedly to the South in May 2010, following Yar’Adua’s death.
2011: Won presidency and 23 states
Jonathan’s announcement of his intention to contest the 2011 presidential election in September 2010 generated much.controversy within the PDP.
However, his victory over his closest challenger in the primary election, former Vice President Abubakar, showed that he had support of party leaders despite that his candidacy was a deviation from the party’s rotation policy. Jonathan went ahead to win the presidential election, which was deemed largely free and fair by international observers. In the 31 states, where governorship election held, the PDP won 23.
They are Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto and Taraba. It later got Ondo from LP to extend its controlled states to 24.
The ANPP won in three states – Borno, Yobe and Zamfara, while AC, which transformed to Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), also won in three states – Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states. APGA and Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) won in Imo and Nasarawa states, respectively. Governorship elections did not hold in Anambra, Edo, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun due to the interregnum over interventions by the courts.
If we must, as a nation, adopt a oneparty system, then it must be designed, planned by expert and we must know what we are going in for. But if we arrive at it through the back door by political manipulations, then we are heading for crisis
In the National Assembly election, the PDP’s seats in the Senate dropped to 71 from 87. That of the House of Representatives also dropped to 203 from 263.
2015: Lost presidency, won nine states
By 2015, the PDP, which had been in power at the centre for 16 years, was at crossroads during the build-up to the general election as a result of infighting, which led to several members leaving the party. Prominent among those who left the party at the time were five governors – Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers).
They were before their defection locked in a battle with the presidency and the then National Chairman of the party, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, over alleged high handedness.
Other chieftains, who dumped the then ruling party were former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, then President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki and the splinter faction of the PDP (New PDP) led by Alhaji Abubakar Kawu Baraje.
Attention shifted to the contest for the PDP presidential ticket for the 2015 elections shortly after their defection to the then newly registered All Progressives Congress (APC) – a merger of the ACN, CPC, ANPP and a faction of APGA.
A plot was muted to grant automatic tickets to Jonathan and serving governors of the party, who were seeking for second term. Though the plan further polarised the party, those behind it insisted that the Right of First Refusal will lead to an affirmation of Jonathan’s candidature at the PDP national convention in line with practices in other presidential system of governments like the United States. The then chairman of PDP Board of Trustees (BoT), Chief Tony Anenih, who championed the campaign, argued that the option will put an end to the wrangling that usually characterise the party’s primary elections.
He also suggested the extension of the gesture to “performing members” of the National Assembly, even though their tenure or number of terms they can enjoy is not circumscribed by the constitution. Expectedly, the proposal sailed through and Jonathan emerged through a consensus at the PDP’s national convention.
He polled all the 2,812 “Yes” votes cast by delegates at the convention. Thus, the stage was set for the battle for the 2015 presidency between him and a former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, following the latter’s emergence as the presidential candidate of the APC.
Against expectations, the APC defeated the PDP in the presidential poll by 15.4 million to 12.8 million votes. The APC’s victory cut shot the PDP’s dream of remaining at the helm of affairs for 60 years by 46 years. It also marked the first time in Nigeria’s political history that an incumbent president will lose an election.
Besides winning the presidency, the APC also won in 20 out of the 29 states, where governorship elections held. The states are Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Bauchi, Kaduna, Plateau, Benue, Jigawa, Zamfara, Borno, Adamawa, Katsina, Yobe, Nasarawa, Kwara, Kano and Imo.
The PDP won in nine states – Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Ebonyi, Delta, Enugu, Taraba, Gombe and Abia. Governorship elections did not hold in Kogi, Bayelsa, Edo, Ondo, Anambra, Osun and Ekiti states. The PDP lost in its traditional strongholds – Niger, Kaduna, Plateau, Benue, Adamawa and Katsina states.
It also lost its control of the National Assembly to the APC. The PDP’s senatorial seats dropped from 71 in 2011 to 49 against APC’s 60, while that of House of Representatives also dropped from 203 to 140 against APC’s 212. At the end of the 2015 elections, states controlled by various parties stood as follows: APC – 22; PDP – 13 and APGA, one.
The APC later raised its controlled states to 23 after it defeated PDP in the November 2015 governorship election in Kogi State. That of PDP dropped to 12 even with the party’s victory in the December 6, 2015 governorship poll in Bayelsa State.
2019: Lost presidency, won 14 states
While most members of the PDP were optimistic of their party’s possible return to power at the level of the presidency during the build-up for the 2019 elections, some analysts, however, saw it as a tall dream given the intrigues that characterised the party’s national convention, which produced Atiku Abubakar as presidential candidate.
As predicated, Atiku lost to then President Buhari in the in the February 23, 2019 presidential election. Buhari, who was the candidate of the APC polled 15.1 million votes to defeat Atiku, who garnered 11.2 million votes. Buhari won in 19 states, while Atiku won in 17 states.
The loss, notwithstanding, it was a resurgence for the PDP as it added more states to its kitty. The party won 14 states in the governorship elections as against nine in 2015. Remarkably, PDP took-over four APC controlled states – Adamawa, Imo, Oyo and Bauchi.
The PDP’s candidates defeated APC incumbent governors in Adamawa and Bauchi states. APC, on its part, won the gubernatorial elections in 15 states. Two of the state were PDP controlled states – Gombe and Kwara. In the National Assembly elections, APC won 66 Senate seats, PDP (42) and Young Progressive Party (YPP) won one.
For the House of Representatives, it was APC (192), PDP (116), African Democratic Congress (ADC – seven), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA – five), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP – four), Action Alliance (AA – two), while Action Democratic (ADP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Labour Party (LP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) had one seat each.
2023: Lost presidency, won nine states
The PDP lost the presidential election for the third consecutive time in the 2023 elections. Its candidate, Atiku Abubakar, was defeated by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the APC by 8.7 million votes against 6.9 million votes. Peter Obi of Labour Party placed third with 6.1 million, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) polled 1.4 million votes.
In the governorship election that held in 28 states, the PDP had nine victories. They include two returning governors – Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Bala Mohammed (Bauchi) and seven first-term governors – Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Siminialayi Fubara (Rivers), Kefas Agbu (Taraba), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Peter Mbah (Enugu).
The APC won in 15 states, including seven re-elections for Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Mai Mala Muni (Yobe), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), Babagana Zulum (Borno).
Those who won as first term governors are Umar Namadi (Jigawa), Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto (Sokoto), Dikko Radda (Katsina), Uba Sani (Kaduna), Bassey Otu (Cross River), Mohammed Bago (Niger), Hyacinth Alia (Benue), and Francis Nwifuru (Ebonyi) While APC took over Sokoto and Benue from PDP, the main opposition party took over Plateau and Zamfara from the ruling party.
The NNPP, in a stunning upset, snatched Kano from APC, while Labour Party unseated PDP in Abia. The gubernatorial polls did not hold in eight states – Ekiti, Osun, Edo, Ondo, Bayelsa, Anambra, Imo and Kogi – which are out of the general election cycle. In the National Assembly elections, APC secured 59 seats, PDP (37), Labour Party (eight), NNPP (two), Social Democratic Party (SDP – two), APGA (one), Young Progressives Party (YPP – one).
That of House of Representatives was APC (162 seats), followed by the PDP with 102 seats, Labour Party (34), NNPP (18) and APGA (four). African Democratic Congress (ADC) and SDP won two seats each, while YPP won one seat. After the 2023 election, APCcontrolled states stood at 20 states, PDP (13), APGA (one), NNPP (one) and Labour Party (one).
The number of states controlled by the PDP, however, dropped to 12, last year, after the party’s loss of Edo State to the APC in the September 2024 governorship election. The PDP-controlled states further dropped to 11 recently, following the defection of Delta State governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, to the ruling party with the entire structure of the PDP in the state.
While reports have it that more PDP governors are likely to defect to the APC before the 2027 general election, the party’s fortunes in both chambers of the 10th National Assembly have also continued to witness a downturn given the gale of defections that has seen senators and members of the House of Representatives dumping the respective platforms on which they were elected.
The PDP governors mentioned in the reports are Peter Mbah (Enugu), Umoh Enoh (Akwa Ibom), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Umaru Fintiri (Adamawa) as well as the suspended governor of Rivers State, Sim Fubara. While some of the governors have dismissed the reports, Nasarawa State. governor, Abdullahi Sule, in a recent media interview, affirmed that more governors across the country are set to defect to the ruling party.
We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that. You know, they say too many cooks spoil the soup; too many political parties spoil governance
“I don’t know the number, but we are expecting more governors to join the APC,” he said. Among PDP lawmakers, who have defected to the ruling party are Senator Ned Nwoko (Delta North), Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi (Kebbi North) and Garba Maidoki (Kebbi South).
Others are Hon. Christian Nkwonta(Ukwa East/Ukwa West federal constituency, Abia State), Hon. Suleiman Abubakar Gumi (Gummi/Bukkuyum federal constituency, Zamfara State) and Erthiatake Ibori-Suene (Ethiope East/ Ethiope West federal constituency, Delta State).
Also on the list are Hom. Jallo Hussain iMohammed (Igabi federal constituency of Kaduna State), Hon. Adamu Tanko (Gurara/Suleja/Tafa federal constituency of Niger State) and Hon. Oluwole Oke (Obokun/Oriade federal constituency of Osun State).
Fears over one-party state
As expected, the gale of defections, which has depleted the PDP and further caused a dip in its fortunes, has sparked fears that Nigeria is heading towards a one-party state ahead of the 2027 general election.
But former President Goodluck Jonathan, who warned against such development, said any attempt to bring about a one-party state through political machinations to soothe only personal aspirations would be detrimental to the country. Jonathan, who spoke in Abuja, last week, while paying tribute to late elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, at a memorial lecture and day of tribute, said:
“If we must, as a nation, adopt a one-party system, then it must be designed, planned by expert and we must know what we are going in for. But if we arrive at it through the back door by political manipulations, then we are heading for crisis.”
The former president, who acknowledged that some nations had successfully practiced one-party system under unique historical and social conditions, warned that Nigeria’s complex ethnic, religious and political landscape demands a more inclusive and carefully designed political framework.
His words: “Yes, one-party states, countries have managed them. Yes, a one-party state may not be evil after all because Julius Nyerere of Tanzania used a oneparty state to stabilise his country in the early days of independence.
He felt that the country, just like Nigeria, had too many tribes and tongues, and two principled religions—Christianity and Islam. If we allow multiple parties, some may follow religious lines, others tribal, and unity will be difficult. But it was properly planned; it was not by accident.”
Nothing wrong with one-party state says APC
The fears over Nigeria’s slide to a one-party state, notwithstanding, National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, declared that there is nothing wrong in Nigeria being a one-party state. He said although the APC is not gunning for a one-party state but will welcome the idea if Nigerians want it, the party is willing and capable of integrating all defectors into its fold.
“We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that,” Ganduje told State House correspondents after he led the three PDP senators from Kebbi State to a meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, on Friday.
Ganduje said the APC’s constitution and its internal structures provided clear guidance for integrating its new members. “Our constitution is very clear about this and, beyond that, our political dexterity in managing such affairs is on the table.
So, I assure you that there will be a smooth integration,” he stated. Ganduje also argued that the mass defection is not a harbinger of a one-party state, as many political actors presume. Instead, he said it signals the APC’s growing dominance spurred by its performance and appeal nationwide. His words:
“Leaders worried about a one-party state have no need to fear. A one-party state is not by force; it is by negotiation. It is by other political parties seeing the effect of the positive governance of our party. If they decide to come to our party willingly, I think there is nothing wrong with that.
“Today, China is one of the strongest countries in the world and is a one-party system. We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that. You know, they say too many cooks spoil the soup; too many political parties spoil governance.”
While there is no doubt that PDP remains one of the country’s dominant political parties in the present political dispensation, it is left to be seen whether its current leadership led by Amb. Umar Damagum will resolve the crisis rocking party at the moment and rebuild ahead of the 2027 general election that is less than two years from now.
