The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected that the pump price of petrol would hover around N950 per litre in the year 2026. The CBN stated this in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
In its outlook for the domestic economy, the bank made what it called baseline projections predicated on assumptions like crude oil price at an average of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).
The CBN stated that domestic crude oil production is assumed to be at about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period, as premium motor spirit is expected to sell around N950, an amount higher than the current pump prices.
“The baseline projections are predicated on the following assumptions: crude oil price at an average of $60/barrel in Q4 2025 and $55/barrel in 2026 (consistent with the US EIA’s outlook that rising global crude oil inventories and supply glut would moderate prices); NFEM exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient FX market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).
“Furthermore, domestic crude oil production is assumed at about 1.5 mbpd (excluding condensates) throughout the forecast period. PMS price is expected to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. Government expenditure is projected to follow the 2025-2027 MTEF/FSP path, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the $1tn economy initiative. MPR and CRR are assumed at 27.00 and 45.00 per cent, respectively. The baseline projections were generally supported by the assumption of continued improvement in business optimism and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN said.
The PUNCH reports that the pump price of petrol was around N900 and above before the Dangote refinery crashed gantry rates from N828 to N699/litre in December.
Following this, the refinery enforced a pump price of N739/litre through its partner, MRS Oil. As MRS filling stations started selling petrol at N739 in mid-December, other filling stations were forced to drop prices in order not to lose their customers.
Recall that the Dangote refinery has been consistent in dropping petrol prices since it commenced operations in 2024, though this always comes at a huge loss to both the refinery and fuel importers.
On Monday, the Dangote refinery warned that petrol pump prices could rise to as much as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria relies solely on fuel imports, stressing that large-scale domestic refining has become a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market.
In a statement, the refinery said, “Recent price movements further highlight an uncomfortable reality. In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint, with petrol prices potentially escalating to levels estimated at up to N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment. The refinery’s operations have therefore served as a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market.”
In its outlook, the CBN added that gains from increased investments by the private sector, especially the Dangote refinery, are expected to further brighten the growth outlook for 2026.
It added, “Increased crude oil production, underpinned by improved security around oil assets, especially with the launch of the production monitoring command centre and expansion of domestic crude oil refining, and stable energy prices are expected to drive growth further in 2026.”
However, the CBN said petrol prices would decline as a result of the competition among traders in the midstream sector. The apex bank also expressed optimism that headline inflation is projected to further decelerate to 12.94 per cent in 2026 from 21.26 per cent estimated for 2025.
“The anticipated moderation would be driven by declining food and PMS prices. The expected deceleration in PMS prices would be driven by the increasing competition within the midstream segment of the oil industry,” it was stated.
It was added that global commodity prices are expected to moderate by 5.52 per cent in 2026, influenced by weakening demand and improving supply conditions.
Similarly, CBN said global “energy prices are projected to fall by 6.99 per cent in 2026, mainly due to lower oil prices as Brent crude is expected to average approximately $61/barrel in 2026.”
Metal prices (excluding precious metals) are expected to drop by 3.29 per cent in 2026, while agricultural commodities are anticipated to fall moderately by 3.18 per cent in 2026, reflecting weak demand and easing supply pressures in key grain and food markets.
