FELIX NWANERI writes on the forthcoming byelections for unoccupied seats in the Senate, House of Representatives and state Houses of Assembly across 12 states and the challenges before the main opposition political parties
As the clock ticks to August 16 by-elections in 12 sates for unoccupied seats in the Senate, House of Representatives and state Houses of Assembly, there is no doubt that the main opposition parties, particularly Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), are up for a litmus test.
Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, who announced the date during a recent meeting with leaders of the political parties in Abuja, noted that approximately 3,553,659 registered voters will be involved in the polls.
He said that since the inauguration of the national and state Assemblies in June 2023, vacancies requiring by-elections have occurred nationwide. The outstanding by-elections involve two senatorial districts, five federal constituencies and nine state constituencies.
His words: “In the last two years since the inauguration of the National and State Assemblies in June 2023, vacancies requiring by-elections have occurred nationwide. You may recall that in February last year, the commission conducted nine by-elections to fill vacancies resulting from the death or resignation of members of the national and state Houses of Assembly. “Since then, more vacancies have been declared across the country.
The outstanding by-elections involve two senatorial districts – Anambra South and Edo Central; five federal constituencies – Ovia South West/Ovia South East in Edo State, Babura/Garki in Jigawa State, Chikun/Kajuru in Kaduna State, Ikenne/Shagamu/Remo North in Ogun State and Ibadan North in Oyo State.
“Also, vacancies exist in nine state constituencies – Ganye in Adamawa State, Onitsha North I in Anambra State, Dekina/Okura in Kogi State, Zaria Kewaye and Basawa in Kaduna State, Bagwai/Shanono in Kano State, Mariga in Niger State, Karim Lamido I in Taraba State and Kauran Namoda South in Zamfara State. “Consequently, the commission has fixed Saturday, August 16, for by-elections in 16 constituencies across 12 states of the country involving a total of 3,553,659 registered voters spread across 32 local government areas, 356 wards and 6,987 polling units.”
Yakubu, who disclosed that INEC will deploy 30,451 officials for the exercise, however said that by-elections will not hold in two state constituencies for the time being. They are Khana II state constituency in Rivers State as a result of the current state of emergency and Talata Mafara South state constituency in Zamfara State, following a legal challenge to the declaration of the seat vacant by the State Assembly.
On the schedule for the by-elections, the INEC chairman said: “Unlike the general election or off-cycle governorship elections, there is a tight timeframe for the conduct of bye-elections. Party primaries will be held between July 17 and 21, while the online portal for submission of nomination forms will open at 9.00am on July 22 and end at 6.00pm on July 26.”
He further disclosed that campaign in public will commence on August 2 and end at midnight on August 14, that is 24 hours before election day. Perhaps, the by-elections would not have attracted much attention but it is coming at a time the build-up to the 2027 general election is not only gaining momentum, but at a time the main opposition political parties are gasping for breath due to internal wrangling.
It is against these backdrops that some analysts are of view the outcome of the exercise will either show the readiness of the respective opposition parties to rebuild ahead of the forthcoming general election or confirm the belief in some political quarters that they have already been overran given the unending defections of their members to the ruling APC. For the PDP, which is the main opposition party, two of its governors and scores of lawmakers have so far defected to the APC, and more are likely to equally jump ship in the days despite interventions by the party’s leadership and other stakeholders to halt the drift.
The tide, which started with PDP’s loss of some members of the National Assembly elected on its platform to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), continues to spread like wildfire. This development has not only caused a decline in the fortunes of the main opposition party ahead of the 2027 general election, but also raised fears over Nigeria’s possible slide to a oneparty state.
From13 states out of 36 after the 2023 elections, the PDP presently controls 10 states, no thanks to its loss of Edo State to the APC in the September 2024 governorship election and the recent defections of Governors Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta) and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) to the ruling party. In the Senate, four PDP senators have so far dumped their party for the APC. They are Senator Ned Nwoko (Delta North), Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi North) and Garba Maidoki (Kebbi South). In the House of Representatives, the party has lost 17 of its lawmakers to the APC.
They are Sulaiman Abubakar Gumi (Zamfara State), Erhiatake IboriSuene (Delta State), Amos Gwamna Magaji (Kaduna State), Salisu Garba Koko (Kebbi State), Hussaini Mohammed Jallo (Kaduna State), Adamu Tanko (Niger State) and Nnamdi Ezechi (Delta State). Others are Victor Nwokolo (Delta State), Julius Gbabor Pondi (Delta State), Thomas Ereyitomi (Delta State), Mutu Nicholas (Delta State), Ukhodhiko Ajiroghene Jonathan (Delta State), Abdullahi Balarabe Dabai (Katsina State), Aliyu Iliyasu Abubakar (Katsina State), Salisu Yusuf Majigiri (Katsina State), Oluwole Oke (Osun State) and Akingbaso Festus Olanrewaju (Ondo State). Besides defections, the PDP is also at crossroads over the battle for its national secretaryship. The crisis started when Senator Samuel Anyanwu won the governorship primary election for last year’s governorship election in Imo State.
In his absence, the South East Caucus of the party chose Sunday Udeh-Okoye, a former National Youth leader of the party, as his replacement. However, Anyanwu sought o reclaim the position after losing the election, a move that was blocked by some stakeholders of the party from his zone. The development led to series of litigations before the Court of Appeal, Enugu, in December, affirmed UdehOkoye as the rightful national secretary.
Anyanwu, however challenged the ruling at the Supreme Court, which did not only quash the ruling of the appellate court, but added that the party is supreme and should therefore decide its leaders. Despite the Supreme Court ruling, the crisis festered. The PDP Governors Forum at a time nominated the Deputy National Secretary, Setonji Koshoedo, to act as national secretary pending the resolution of the crisis but the intervention failed to yield desired results.
While the party seemed to be gradually putting its house in order following its recent NEC meeting which returned Anyanwu as national secretary, pending it national convention, billed for Ibadan, the Oyo State capital in November, the belief is that it is almost too late for the party to make any meaningful impact in the by-elections.
It is the same story of losses through defections and leadership for LP. The party has so far lost two of its senators – Ezenwa Onyewuchi (Imo ) and Neda Imasuen (Edo) and eight House members – Tochukwu Chinedu Okere (Imo State), Donatus Matthew (Kaduna State), Akiba Bassey (Cross River State), Esosa Iyawe (Edo State), Fom Dalyop Chollom (Plateau State), Ajang Alfred Iliya (Plateau State), Sunday Cyriacus Umeha (Enugu State) and Ngozi Okolie (Delta State) – to the APC, while two moved to the PDP.
Besides the losses, LP also has leadership crisis that has defied interventions to contend with. Like the PDP, the party has journey through the courts yet the impasse persists as the Julius Abure and Nenadi Usman-led factions of the party seem not ready to yield ground for each other. was of the view that the caretaker committee became necessary due to the failure of Abure to allow political units, wards, local governments, states and national delegates to determine his reelection.
The party’s crisis started over allegation of misappropriation of funds against Abure, but got worsened when he (Abure), conducted a national convention in Nnewi, Anambra State, where he was re-elected as national chairman. Dissatisfied with the move, some stakeholders of the party, including Mr. Peter Obi (the 2023 presidential candidate) and Governor Alex Oti of Abia State, conveyed a meeting in Umuahia, the Abia State capita, where a caretaker committee headed by Usman was elected to oversee activities of the party.
As played out in the battle for PDP national secretaryship, the ruling of the Supreme Court on the LP national chairmanship, did not also resolve the matter as both Abure and Nenadi camps have continued to lay claim to the position although the former recently declared it is the one officially recognised by INEC, following the commission’s publishing of the name of Chief George Moghalu as LP’s gubernatorial candidate for the forthcoming governorship election in Anambra State.
Recall that the various factions of the party conducted parallel governorship primaries to their respective candidates. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and African Democratic Congress (ADC), which are also gearing for the by elections are not left out of the losses over defections. While NNPP has so far lost a senator and three House members to the APC, ADC lost a member of the House of Representatives to the ruling party.
While eyes are on them to see if they can brave the odds and challenge the ruling party, it appears that ruling party is not losing over the by-elections. Recall that President Bola Tinubu recently mocked the opposition parties over their internal crisis, while delivering his Democracy Day address at the joint sitting of the National Assembly.
Tinubu, who noted that instead of putting their houses in order, the parties are shifting blame to the APC for their internal crises, said: “Political parties fearful of members leaving may be better served by examining their internal processes and affairs rather than fearfully conjuring up demons that do not exist.”
He added: “For me, I would say try your best to put your house in order. I will not help you do so. It is, indeed, a pleasure to witness you in such disarray.” The President also dismissed the oneparty state narrative, pledging support for political plurality.
“To those who ring the alarm that the APC is intent on a one-party state, I offer you a most personal promise. While your alarm may be as a result of your panic, it rings in error,” he said. “At no time in the past, nor any instance in the present, and at no future juncture shall I view the notion of a one-party state as good for Nigeria.”
While many would have expected that the main opposition parties would have given the ruling APC a good fight if not for the leadership crises and defections that have caused a decline in their respective fortunes, personality and antecedent, not party structure might determine who wins in the various bye-elections.
According to analysts, , it will amount to a political gamble for any of the parties, whether the ruling APC or the main opposition PDP and LP, to rely on the variables that shaped recent elections and emerging developments in the polity given the dynamic nature of politics.
