Analysts at Meristem Securities have projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent granting of final operating licences to 82 Bureau De Change operators is likely to bring stability to the country’s foreign exchange market. The approvals, issued under the CBN’s updated 2024 Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for BDC Operations, took effect on 27 November 2025.
“The licensing approvals are expected to strengthen discipline in the retail FX market by reducing arbitrage opportunities and curbing unregulated operators, who have historically contributed to parallel-market distortions,” the analysts said.
They noted that while short-term adjustments may occur, regulatory clarity remains critical. “While the exit of unlicensed operators may temporarily tighten liquidity in informal channels, the increased regulatory clarity should support a more stable exchange rate environment over time,” they said.
Looking ahead, the analysts said the tighter framework would aid market normalisation. “The tighter licensing regime is likely to facilitate the gradual normalisation of FX market dynamics,” they said, adding that “as compliance improves and data from approved BDCs becomes more transparent, the CBN will be better positioned to influence market behaviour and rebuild investor confidence.”
On the medium-term outlook, the analysts said, “Improved monitoring and reporting may encourage more foreign inflows into the official FX market, strengthen the naira, and reduce speculative activity,” while cautioning that “the effectiveness of these reforms will depend on broader macroeconomic fundamentals, including FX supply, oil receipts, government revenue, and investor sentiment.”
Turning to the petroleum market, the analysts attributed the surge in petrol imports to supply-side adjustments. “The surge in November imports was driven by festive stockpiling ahead of year-end demand, efforts to clear September-October supply shortfalls, NNPC’s push to strengthen inventory buffers, and the delayed offloading of 12 vessels initially scheduled for October but discharged in November,” they said.
They added that supply conditions had improved markedly. “The elevated supply profile significantly reduces the likelihood of year-end scarcity and positions the market for smoother product availability into early 2026,” the analysts said.
wever, they warned that risks remain. “The pace of adjustment will depend on FX liquidity conditions, landing cost movements, and NNPC’s inventory management strategy,” adding that “sustained reliance on imports means FX volatility and global refined product prices remain critical risk factors for domestic PMS availability and pricing.”
On corporate developments, the analysts said Helios Investment Partners’ agreement to acquire a majority stake in Beta Glass Plc signals a positive medium-term outlook. “Overall, the acquisition positions Beta Glass for stronger medium-term growth,” they said.
They added, “We expect increased capital investment, efficiency gains, and potential regional market expansion, contingent on successful integration and regulatory clearance,” noting that “for shareholders, this could translate into higher returns on investment and dividends, supported by improved earnings capacity and Helios’ track record in scaling industrial assets across Africa.”
